PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-4

SEASON RESULTS:
53-54

Week 14 Recap:

After a horrific start to our season with NFL player props, we hit a hot streak to climb back above the profit line. Unfortunately a few subpar weeks have us both back below that, as well as the .500 mark on the season, which is very deflating. I guess you could said things have been inconsistent, to say the least? We’re definitely not giving up though as there are still a lot of potential bets out there, and we’re determined to get back on track before the end of the season. In reviewing week 14, things started out abysmally before at least finishing respectably. We basically started the weekend 0-4, as we lost with James Cook’s receiving yards, as he didn’t get the amount of snaps we anticipated. We also lost with D’Andre Swift, who was back to being a non-factor, just one week after looking like he was going to play a significant role again. We liked our play with Mark Andrews yardage as he has some chemistry with Tyler Huntley, however once Huntley went down with an injury, Andrews only saw one target for the duration of the game. We were close with our Christian McCaffrey receiving prop, but he had a lot of bench time in the 4th quarter of their blowout win, and missed it by a catch or so. We finally got on the board with D’Onta Foreman, although it took the entire game for him to get over on his yardage mark, as he ended up splitting carries three ways. The easiest cover of the week was on Sunday Night Football, where Justin Herbert flew past his passing total. And we managed to get over on a late drive with DeAndre Hopkins to finish Monday night with a win. After starting 0-4, finishing 3-4 actually seems remarkable. Realistically, it’s just some bad handicapping and bad luck that has us in this spot currently.

Week 15 Preview:

For the second time this season weather has forced us to curtail some potential player prop bets, as it’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. You’ll notice many of our selections below are centered in locations or situations that won’t be negatively influenced by the elements. Selecting winning player prop bets is tricky enough without adding an additional variable into the fold. We settled on seven total wagers, fading two players, and looking for nice performances from the other five.

Our Picks:

Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

It’s basically spoiler time for the Indianapolis Colts, as they’re almost officially eliminated from playoff contention in the AFC. They’ll face a Minnesota Vikings team looking to re-establish itself as a worthy leader near the top of the NFC. The Vikings defense has been beyond underwhelming over the last month, allowing passing yards by the boatload. Against some very mediocre quarterbacks, they’ve been giving up over 400 yards per contest. The offense for the Colts has been anything but explosive in the 2022 season, however Matt Ryan should be set up for a nice game here. The Vikings haven’t consistently gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and have given up as more receptions per game to wide receivers than any team in the league. Jonathan Taylor will of course be heavily involved in the game plan, but Michael Pittman should be the usual top target in the passing game. Pittman has secured a lot of targets all season, and has only fallen short of six receptions twice in his previous 8 contests. That’s enough to get us to have some action on Saturday afternoon.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Under 73.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

One of the more intriguing games of the weekend features two rising teams from each conference, as the Lions head to New York to face the Jets. The Lions offense has been clicking, and right at the forefront of that is wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. When healthy, St. Brown has been as good as any receiver in the league as the clear top target for quarterback Jared Goff. It will be a bit of an uphill battle Sunday as the Lions offense and the young wide receiver face a pretty tough challenge. Let’s start by circling back to the weather, which is expected to be cold, and even potentially have some rain or wintry mix. That should lead to a little more work on the ground and limit the big plays in the passing game. More importantly, St. Brown is going to be seeing a lot of the talented cornerbacks of the Jets, specifically Sauce Gardner. The rookie has been a pretty shutdown corner, locking up some of the top receivers in the league. As consistently good as St. Brown has been this season, getting over this mark feels like the odds are really stacked against him.

Miles Sanders – Over 61.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles offense is as balanced and versatile as any in the league, and they have a dream matchup against the Chicago Bears defense. The Bears have a depleted defense and have trouble controlling the line of scrimmage. That’s not ideal when facing an offensive line like they have in Philadelphia. Miles Sanders has been heavily involved in the running game, and should have some room to maneuver with all of the possibilities the Eagles offer to defend. Moreover, the Eagles figure to have a nice lead in this game as hefty nine point favorites entering the contest. That should lead to some extra work for Sanders in the second half of the game. And finally, we’ll get back to the weather yet again, which should be cold and windy in Chicago, making passing more difficult than usual. Add it up and it sounds like a lot of Miles Sanders to us.

Joe Burrow – Under 271.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Joe Burrow is the real deal and the Bengals enter the final stretch of the season as hot as any team in the league. They’ve got a tough road matchup in Tampa, against a disappointing Buccaneers squad, that somehow still finds itself at the top of the NFC South. These teams are on different tiers at this point in the season, but that doesn’t mean the Buccaneers don’t boast some talent on both sides of the ball. Defensively the Bucs’ will be without run-stuffer Vita Vea, which should allow the Bengals to establish a bit of a running game. Combine that with the fact Burrow will be without two of his top receiving threats in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and throwing the football may not be easy. The Buccaneers have been a top ten passing defense all season, and in a game that could be a bit of a slugfest, air yards might be hard to come by. It’s always risky to fade such a great player, however we’re going to go under with Burrow in this particular spot.

James Conner – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

There will be no renewal of the quarterback matchup between Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson as both starting QBs will miss this game between the Cardinals and Broncos. This could wind up looking a bit like a preseason game when it’s all said and done, but we still like James Conner to go over his rushing yardage. The Broncos have been a really good defense throughout the season, but have been just middle of the pack in terms of rush defense. In fact, because it’s so difficult to throw on the Broncos, teams almost have to try to run on them to move the ball. This game has the makings of a lot of punts and three and outs on both sides of the ball. That should end up with Conner getting a lot of totes throughout the course of the game. While he may not have a lot of explosive runs, with a total of only 62.5 yards, he’s got a great shot to get over that mark when you look at the amount of work he should get.

Justin Herbert – Over 300.5 Yards Passing (-115)

A week ago it seemed almost too easy in taking Justin Herbert with his yardage total, and this week it appears the sportsbooks have adjust a bit. They’ve raised his total over 20 yards from the previous week as it now rests over the 300 yard mark. That’s not scaring us away from backing Herbert again, as he has a great matchup against the a Titans secondary that has been uncharacteristically bad during their recent slide. Tennessee is inconsistent generating a pass rush, and their secondary is banged up, and just overall not that great. What the Titans do in fact do well is stop the run. That’s not really going to help them in this game though as that’s not the style that the Chargers want to play anyhow. LA finally has their full complement of weapons together, and it’s tough to defend multiple quality wideouts, a tight end and a pass catching running back. Herbert should be slinging it all over the field again in the confines of the home stadium, and certainly seems poised to crack that 300 yard mark again this week.

Chris Olave – Over 60.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Subconsciously it feels like the Saints and Falcons are meeting in a meaningless back half of the season game with nothing on the line. Then we realize that the winner of this game is still very much alive in the race for the NFC South, with the Buccaneers underdogs this weekend. Both of these teams have struggled with a pass rush, but the Falcons have been absolutely abysmal in that department. When you graph out their rate of pressure, it’s so far below every other team in the league it’s almost unbelievable. The Saints offensive line has underachieved a bit, as has the entire team, but they’re still a pretty solid unit overall. They should give quarterback Andy Dalton plenty of time to throw, and Olave has emerged as the number one wideout in the continued absence of Michael Thomas. He’s gotten at least six targets in every game except for one since week two, and we expect that trend to continue here. This number is more than fairly set by the sportsbooks, but the matchup here lends itself to playing the over. Let’s see if he can continue his strong rookie season in week 15.

Follow us @TheBetCrushers on Twitter