PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3
SEASON RESULTS:
39-38
Week 13 Recap:
A wasted weekend of player prop bets as we could only put together a 3-3 record on our six wagers. Well, there was some adrenaline sweat, so it wasn’t all wasted, maybe? Anyhow, The Titans got blown out by Washington which doomed Tony Pollard’s yardage total from the start. We did find success with some other running backs, as both Alvin Kamara and Bucky Irving pretty easily equipped their rushing marks. We faded veteran Nick Chubb, and that also worked out well. We lost with Matthew Stafford, as an anemic first half really never threatened his yardage there, and probably the most frustrating loss was Cade Otton who finished with 3 receptions, losing by the hook. The tight end had 7 targets, so if he could have just snagged one more we’d have had a positive weekend. Could have, would have, should have, yeah yeah. Moving on.
Week 14 Preview:
We’re loaded up with nine NFL player props for week 14, and realistically, we had a few others we liked as well. For the second week in a row, we’re running back heavy, with just one quarterback and two wide receivers on the card. We’re fading one talented RB, but you’ll see some of the league’s heavy hitters on the ticket as well. Included here is a player we backed last week, that we’re going to ride with again this Sunday. Keep an eye on the weather in the outdoor games at this point in the season and best of luck to you!
Our Picks:
Justin Herbert – Over 229.5 Yards Passing (-115)
One of the top matchups of the weekend is an AFC West dual between the Chargers and the Chiefs in Kansas City. Both of these teams can look a little pedestrian at times, yet they each continue to find ways to win ballgames. That happens when you have upper echelon quarterbacks, like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Herbert is going to be asked to do a lot in this game if the Chargers are going to have a chance to win. At first glance, this number seemed a bit high for Herbert, but in a game where the Chargers are likely going to be unable to consistently run the football, the yardage has to come from somewhere, right? Kansas City continues to be pretty stout against opposing runners, and with J.K. Dobbins not in the lineup, LA is simply going to have to throw the football early and often. The Chiefs meanwhile, have steadily watched their pass defense slide down in the rankings. After a great start to the year, they’re really getting carved up over the last seven weeks. This play bucks the eye test, which would initially lean toward playing an under. If the Chargers can get close to 300 total yards in the game, this should hit.
Jakobi Meyers – Over 62.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has emerged as the most exciting and talented weapon on the offense for the Las Vegas Raiders, but have you paid attention to what Jakobi Meyers has been doing of late? Over the last four contests he’s averaged 11 targets and 7 receptions per game as teams have had to focus their attention on Bowers. Sunday he’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has continued to be one of the worst in the league at defending opposing wideouts. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers have been cranking out some points offensively. This should lead to the Raiders throwing the ball a lot, especially with a banged up running game. In a pass offense that is almost entirely funneled through Bowers and Meyers, Jakobi should have another productive game. His recent play and this enticing matchup are enough for us to make a wager on his over.
Bucky Irving – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Speaking of the dynamic Tampa Bay offense, they really got things cranking when they started leaning into running back Bucky Irving. Although he’s nursing a slight hip injury, Irving should be ready to go as the top dog in the TB backfield. His yardage totals keep increasing every week, but with a total in the 60’s, at this point it’s still too low. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged over 6 yards per carry, dicing up the 49ers, Giants and Panthers. While you may be thinking those opponents aren’t elite at stopping the run, and you’d be correct, the Raiders aren’t exactly the 2000 Ravens defense either. After a crushing loss to the Chiefs a week ago, one has to wonder just how motivated and focused the Raiders will be to travel across the country and play a meaningless game against the Bucs? Irving should get another solid workload in this contest, and until his yardage total starts with a 7 or an 8, we’ll keep backing him.
Justin Jefferson – Over 86.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
After his lowest output of the season in week 12, the Vikings Justin Jefferson bounced back last week in a big win against the Cardinals with 99 yards receiving. It marked the 9th time this year that Jefferson topped at least 80 yards, and moved his season average to 84 yards per game. His yardage total on Sunday is just slightly above that as it’s climbed a few yards to 86.5, but Jefferson is still worthy of a wager. When he has played indoors, he has averaged over 100 yards per game, as the fast track is simply too match of an advantage for him against defensive backs. The Falcons defense has improved from the previous few seasons, but they’re still not a great unit, and have given up some big games to opposing receivers this year. They also struggle to generate pressure, and Vikings QB Sam Darnold has really looked good when he’s had time to throw. The Vikings will definitely spread the ball around as they have a variety of weapons, but Jefferson is still the main cog that keeps this passing game going. Needing to have what is really just an “average” game for him, at home against a weak opponent, we’ll take a chance on him.
Saquon Barkley – Over 111.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a rushing yardage total this high, and at the same time, it actually seems low when you look at Saquon Barkley. Putting the running backs skill set behind the Eagles offensive line is almost unfair to the rest of the league at this point, and the Panthers are going to be the next team to feel the wrath of Barkley and the Eagles running game. After topping 100 yards against the Ravens top ranked rush defense, there really is no reason not to play Barkley every weekend at this point. Will he cover every weekend, probably not. But will he cover more often than he doesn’t, he sure will. The Panthers rank near the bottom in almost all defensive categories, so it’s almost not even fair in this one. There are really only two paths to not covering it would seem this weekend, and really most weekends. Either Barkley exits the game with an injury, or the Eagles are up by 4 touchdowns in the second half and he spends 20 minutes on the bench. Sure, both are possible, but let’s go with the more practical plan here. The Eagles continue to dominate, and Barkley continues to make a case for Most Valuable Player in the league with another 100+ yard performance.
Bijan Robinson – Under 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is one of the better players in the National Football League, even though his stats aren’t necessarily mind-blowing. The powerful and speedy runner is averaging 73 yards rushing per contest, which is certainly impressive, but it still feels like he isn’t dominating the game the way the team anticipated he would coming out of college. He’ll undoubtedly get some totes against the Vikings in an important NFC matchup this weekend, but finding room to run could prove tough. The Vikings have ranked in the top four in rush defense all season, and have shut down some of the games better running backs. Conversely, their pass defense has proven vulnerable behind their blitz heavy scheme. The Falcons should be throwing more than they are running in this game. It doesn’t mean Robinson can’t be a factor in the game, he may be a big component of the passing attack out of the backfield. This seems like a pretty solid spot to fade his rushing numbers as the Vikings should be able to keep him contained.
Tyrone Tracy, Jr. – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The last two games have seen the New York Giants get the ball to rookie running back Tyrone Tracy just 9 times a piece. This makes Sundays matchup with the Saints a nice buy-low situation as the previous three games before that Tracy was averaging 18 carries and 100 yards per game. Their matchup with the Saints should be a relatively close football game, and with Drew Lock scheduled to start again, the Giants are going to want to run the ball. The Saints on the other hand, have been the worst team in the league defending the run over the last 8 weeks of the season. With star wide receiver Malik Nabers banged up, Tracy should be option number one for the Giants offense. Tracy is averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season, so simply math says if he can get to 13 carries against a bad defense, he has a great shot at eclipsing this total.
Alvin Kamara – Over 81.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We rode the Alvin Kamara train a week ago to victory and we’re hopping back aboard this week in a juicy matchup against the Giants. Kamara has performed all season long when his number has been called and it should be called plenty on Sunday. Without Taysom Hill in the lineup, Kamara is going to take on even more rushing duties than normal, which saw him take 23 carries last week. That is a good formula for New Orleans, as the Giants rank dead last in the NFL in yarder per carry allowed, at over 5.1 per tote. Throw in the fact All-Pro defensive Dexter Lawrence is now out for the season, and the running lanes should be plentiful for Kamara. He has a pair of his own offensive linemen potentially returning from injury as well. Without Hill, and without a plethora of receiving weapons, Kamara looks like he could be in line for his second straight 100 yard rushing performance in a row. At least we’re banking on it.
Rico Dowdle – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys minor resurgence is probably a case of too little, too late for the 2024 season, however fans at least have to feel better about where this team is currently. They’re no longer getting blown out of games, and even have looked pretty good the last couple of weeks during their two game win streak. They’ll have a chance to extend that to three games, although they are underdogs at home against the high-scoring Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. The Cowboys are going to have to score a lot of points if they want to beat the Bengals, and that starts with their running game. Rico Dowdle has given Dallas a nice spark on the ground, rushing for 86 on 19 carries , and 112 yards on 22 carries over the last two games, respectively. The Cowboys line is still a work in progress, and no one is going to mistake Dowdle for Saquon Barkley, yet he’s positioned to be a workhorse back for the duration of the season. In their Monday night matchup with the Bengals, he’ll take on a defense that ranks at the bottom or near the bottom in several of the major metrics. Cincinnati really doesn’t do anything well on the defensive side of the ball, with the exception of Trey Hendrickson applying pressure over the left tackle spot. They’re going to give up yards, both on the ground and through the air. Those ground yards will come from Dowdle, as Ezekiel Elliott is officially an afterthought at this point in time. A month ago it would have been fade away on a player like Dowdle, but in this matchup, he’s green for go, and hopefully cash.
