PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
7-1
SEASON RESULTS:
47-37
Week 12 Recap:
We certainly can’t and wouldn’t brag about our consistency, and if the last two weeks taught us anything at all, it’s that even diligent research can sometimes leave you guessing. After our disastrous week 11 that saw us go a despicable 1-7 losing two prop bets by .5 yards, things worked out the way they were supposed to in week 12 as we flipped the script for a 7-1 tally. The rally started on Thanksgiving as we had David Montgomery’s rushing yards over, and the Dallas Cowboys sack total over. Both were relatively sweaty, but both got home, giving the props a nice start heading into Sunday. Almost everything fell right according to plan as our only loss of the day was on Rachaad White’s receiving total. The Buccaneers running back a very productive day overall, but unfortunately, after grabbing a couple of short passes in the first quarter, he didn’t secure another catch the rest of the day. Our other plays leaned a lot on some proven veterans, and guys like Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs grinded their way in tough fought games to get over their totals. Despite losing some work to Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren still managed to squeak by his mark, and young quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields leaped over their passing and rushing marks, respectively. To say it was needed to keep a profitable prop season on track would be stating the obvious. Now let’s see if we can get some more consistent stability.
Week 13 Preview:
Originally we had seven player props listed for this article, but we opted to remove three after looking closely at the numbers and matchups. For those wondering, that was Courtland Sutton, Matthew Stafford and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That also probably means these three will easily cover their yardage markers. All jokes aside, we settled on a smaller slate with just four wagers on Sunday. We’ve got a trio of running backs, and an unknown tight end we’re taking a chance with in Houston. Have a profitable weekend!
Our Picks:
Brevin Jordan – Over 23.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
They call sports betting gambling for a reason, and we’re taking a chance right out of the gate with our first player prop of the week. Texans tight end Brevin Jordan has a grand total of six receptions on the season and has never accrued more than 56 yards in a game during his two and a half year career in the NFL. So why are we backing his over heading into this matchup with the Denver Broncos on Sunday? Two reasons. The first would be starting tight end Dalton Schultz missing this game, leaving Jordan the only real tight end threat on the roster for an offense that has been cruising of late. The second is that previously mentioned opponent, the Denver Broncos. No team in the league has been worse at defending the tight end position than Denver. With the emergence of Tank Dell opposite of Nico Collins, and a rejuvenated running game behind Devin Singletary, the Broncos are going to have their hands full containing C.J. Stroud and this offense. The player most obviously set to benefit from the absence of Dalton Schultz is Brevin Jordan. He’s an athletic player, and when he has had limited opportunities he’s made plays. This bet could clearly be a bust, but at just 23.5 yards against this Broncos defense, we’re going to take a chance with Jordan.
Najee Harris – Over 55.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
For those who believe making a coaching change during the season is an unwise move, enter the Pittsburgh Steelers moving on from offensive coordinator Matt Canada. In their first contest without their beleaguered OC, the team put up their best offensive performance in nearly two years, led by strong running from Najee Harris. Next up on the slate is a date with the Arizona Cardinals, a team that has routinely been run over and around all season. In fact, they’ve give up the most rushing yards in the entire league and were shredded against the Rams a week ago. Harris is going to split time with Jaylen Warren, but after his nice performance, he should at minimum get half of the snaps. We’re actually expecting both Harris and Warren to feast in this game, and debated playing Warren’s over as well. We opted for Harris here, as his yardage number is a little lower, and he’ll likely get his snaps on early running downs. The game script should work out ok for him here as the Cardinals aren’t likely to build up a big lead on the road in Pittsburgh. A new scheme and a new desire should guide Harris over this mark.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
With all of the weapons on the San Francisco 49ers offense, stopping them always starts with containing running back Christian McCaffrey. The Eagles will take their shot at slowing down McCaffrey in the game of the week, something most teams have been unable to accomplish this season. The Eagles do have something working in their favor, as they’ve allowed the second fewest rushing yards to opponents this season. The draft picks of Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter have firmed up the interior of their defense, and veterans like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham still can push their way forward in the trenches. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best at creating running lanes creatively, but he’s also great at finding alternatives to traditional ways of moving the football. Shanahan knows he needs to get the ball to McCaffrey, but attacking that Eagles front head-on is not necessarily guaranteed to work. Fortunately for the Niners, getting the ball to McCaffrey in the passing game is always a great backup option, as McCaffrey can run routes and catch as well as any wide receiver in the league. McCaffrey hasn’t routinely gone over this mark this year, but if you look closer, there is a pattern to his receiving prowess. McCaffrey’s top receiving games have not shockingly come against the teams they have played with the best run defenses they’ve faced. (The Jaguars and the Vikings). Facing a strong Eagles defense, that conversely is thin at linebacker, look for a lot of opportunities for McCaffrey in the receiving game. We almost opted to double-dip and take McCaffrey’s rushing under total, but we’ll stick with the positive, and just go with his receiving over.
Zack Moss – Over 101.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)
You can certainly understand the Indianapolis Colts working Jonathan Taylor back into their lineup despite a great fill in performance from Zack Moss early in the season. With that being said, there are a lot of people who felt Moss had earned more playing time, and was possibly even more effective than Taylor this season. For the folks on the backup running back’s bandwagon, we’ll get another chance to see what Moss can do as the lead back in their offense. Moss will be facing a Tennessee Titan defense that saw him produce his best game this season and as a pro back in week four. In that matchup, Moss ran all over Tennessee for 165 yards, averaging over 7.2 yards per carry, and he tacked on another 30 yards receiving. This figures to be a game where we see a lot of Derrick Henry on one side, and a lot of Zack Moss on the other. We can’t handicap the psychological piece of a player’s performance, but one would have to think Moss is eager to re-show why he can be a top running back in the league. The Titans run defense started the season strong, but they have given up more rushing yards the past month of the season than they were earlier in the year. Moss should catch some passes and see a lot of carries. He racked up almost 200 yards the last time these teams played, and while we won’t project that, we think he can crack 102 total yards on Sunday.
