PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3
SEASON RESULTS:
55-36-2
Week 12 Recap:
We were hoping for a 4-2 weekend of props, but the Seahawks were never really threatened, meaning Russell Wilson wasn’t running a bunch. We’ll live to fight another week with a 3-3 result, in what was actually a fortunate 3-3. It took some late passing from the Panthers Teddy Bridgewater to barely eclipse his total in the early games to help us get there. We went with two of the staples at running back and split those as Nick Chubb feasted on the Jags, while Dalvin Cook couldn’t continue his streak of monster performances. After a goose egg of catches in the first half, Stefon Diggs got loose for 7 grabs in the second half allowing him to hit his mark. At still 19 games over .500 on the season we’re feeling pretty good as we head down the homestretch of the NFL season.
Week 13 Preview:
Our heaviest card of player prop bets offers nine selections in total and a lot of variety. We’ve got some big stars, some smaller names, and some over and unders at all positions. A couple of familiar faces are on the list, and if you go back, you’ll notice they’ve cashed more than they’ve cost us this season.
We’re not listing this as an official play, but you also may want to consider this one if you like a bit of a longshot:
Aaron Rodgers – Over 2.5 touchdown passes at +200.
On to our official player prop bets for week 13:
Our Picks:
Brandon Allen – Under 209.5 Yards Passing (-110)
A tough matchup awaits Brandon Allen as he gets the start again for the Bengals when they take on the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins pass defense has been solid all season and has good depth in their secondary. That should allow them to match up with the Bengals wide receivers which will make it tough for Allen to make a lot of throws. Allen tossed for just 165 yards in his first start, and while he might do slightly better in this game, it’s hard to see him doing a lot through the air overall. We’re going to fade him and see how he does.
Dalvin Cook – Over 104.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Dalvin Cook let us down last week as he had what was a very pedestrian game by his lofty standards. He’s a little banged up, but has another opportunity against a thin Jacksonville Jaguar defense at home this week. There isn’t much that needs to be stated with this selection here, simply a great and consistent running back going against a poor defense. In a game the Vikings are heavy favorites to win, they should spend plenty of time handing the ball off which should lead to Cook going over the 100 yard marker yet again, after last week’s hiatus.
James Robinson – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-120)
Dalvin Cook isn’t the only stud running back that will be featured when the Jaguars and Vikings square up in week thirteen. Rookie running back James Robinson has been one of the most effective players in the league, and if it weren’t for Justin Herbert, and the Jags terrible record, would be in the conversation for rookie of the year. Robinson will see a lot of work again in this game and should have some success against a middle of the pack Vikings rush defense. With Mike Glennon at quarterback there is just enough of a threat of the pass to keep the Vikings semi-honest, leaving Robinson with enough room to manuever.
Nick Chubb – Over 83.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
It’ll be fun to watch Derrick Henry going up against a poor Cleveland run defense, and for us, hopefully even more fun watching Nick Chubb thrash the Titans defense. Chubb has gone for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and has to be licking his chops at a shot against this leaky Tennessee group. While he started off slowly against the Jaguars, he went crazy in the second half including a 59 yard burst. This could be a carbon copy as Chubb looks to show that Derrick Henry isn’t the only king at the running back position.
DeAndre Hopkins – Under 69.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
After a scorching-hot start to the season, DeAndre Hopkins has cooled off a bit, well minus a Hail Mary touchdown winning catch of course. This weekend he draws All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey who has been an absolute shut down corner this season. Having held some of the league’s top receivers to their worst games of the season, Ramsey will have his sights set on doing the same to Hopkins in this important AFC West battle. Hopkins will find a way to grab a few catches as he’s simply too good to be completely shut down, but overall he shouldn’t have a huge game. We’re anticipating more of a 50 yard performance from “Nuk” in what we also believe will be a low-scoring contest.
Keenan Allen – Under 73.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Speaking of tough matchups, Keenan Allen also doesn’t have a smooth path in the Chargers game with the Patriots. The return of Stephon Gilmore from injury and the ball-hawking play of J.C. Jackson on the opposite corner, paired with the McCourtey men at safety allows Bill Belichick to scheme the way he prefers. In this case, that will be trying to take away Keenan Allen and forcing someone else to beat them. Just like with DeAndre Hopkins, the Chargers will find some ways to get Allen involved. This just won’t be one of those 10 catch for 120 yard games that Allen is capable of producing. This one should be close, but we don’t think Allen is going to get to his yardage total.
Anthony Firkser – Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)
Everyone expects Derrick Henry to have a huge game against the porous Browns defense, but there’s a lesser known player that could be a contributor for the Titans. The Browns have been one of the worst teams in the league defending opposing tight ends and will be down two additional starters in their secondary. Titans starting tight end Johnnu Smith has been ruled out which sets the stage for their qualified backup Anthony Firsker to make some plays in the receiving game. Firsker started earlier in the season when Smith missed some other time and he put up some nice stats. With his reception total set at just 2.5 it won’t take much for Firkser to make this happen.
Mitchell Trubisky – Over 239.5 Yards Passing (-110)
The BetCrushers are not fans of Mitchell Trubisky or the Bears offense like most of America outside of the state of Illinois. Taking an over just seems like an absolutely terrible idea in every way imaginable. We’re going against the grain however as Trubisky has a dream matchup against the Detroit Lions and their paper thin secondary. The matchup alone wouldn’t be enough to play his over yardage total, we had to explore the history as well. Four of Trubisky’s best five games in his career have come against the Lions as he’s thrown for over 300 yards in three of them. The Bears should be able to do a bit running as well, but we know they aren’t dominating on the ground. When you factor everything together, it simply adds up in rolling the dice with taking an over on a bad offense and player.
Travis Kelce – Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
After last week’s monster performance from Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill, he’s a hot name on the player prop line. We’re going to pass on that however and let the public have that one if they so desire. The Broncos aren’t going to single up Hill with a struggling cornerback as they’ll likely roll safety help to Hill’s side. That means a lot of single coverage for Travis Kelce who has had 10, 8 and 8 receptions in his last three games. Although he only nabbed three when they played the Broncos earlier in the season, with his total set at just 5.5 the over seems to provide plenty of value.
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