PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-4

SEASON RESULTS:
52-33-2

Week 11 Recap:

Quite a few close plays again as the linemakers are finding a pretty good pulse with player props as the season goes on. We hit a couple just barely, like our lone under with A.J. Green, but lost a couple tight ones, including what really should have been a win with Kalen Ballage. He was only 9 yards away from going over with a quarter to play and a 3 score lead against the Jets. For some inexplicable reason, he only received two more carries as the Jets climbed back into the game and he missed his total. Our biggest miss was with Hayden Hurst as he was completely shut out and received only one real target as the Falcons offense stalled. Overall, another winning weekend with a 5-4 mark as we keep grinding in what continues to be a good player prop run.

Week 12 Preview:

The uncertainty due to COVID impacting multiple games, along with the earlier Thanksgiving games means a smaller card of player props this weekend. There are still some good opportunities out there, and we’re focused on some big name players expected to play well. Six total bets featured here, including a quarterback in the Monday Night Football game.

Our Picks:

Teddy Bridgewater – Over 254.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Before Alex Smith won the hearts of America with a courageous comeback, it was Teddy Bridgewater who worked his way back from a horrific knee injury to earn a starting spot in the league. Bridgewater was well liked in his time in Minnesota and while this isn’t a typical revenge game, you know he wants to play well in his return. He has some pretty favorable matchups with his speedy receivers going against some suspect cornerbacks for the Vikings. Ironically, the key to Bridgewater getting over his yardage total in this game could be how well his defense is able to contain Dalvin Cook and get off the field, or give up quick and long touchdowns on the drive. Ultimately, Bridgewater has been a good passing quarterback this year and should be able to do enough against this Vikings defense to get over.

Dalvin Cook – Over 112.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

A natural transition over to Vikings running back Dalvin Cook as one of the league’s two running backs over 1,000 yards prepares for the Panthers. The oddsmakers finally have gotten a clue that Cook is basically as automatic as it comes in the running game and adjusted his total to a whopping 112.5 yards this weekend. The truth is that adjustment, while correct, is still too low for Cook with the way he running and his line is run blocking. Since week number two, Cook has gone over 115 yards rushing in every game except for two, one of which he exited early with an injury. Despite a good performance for the Panthers run defense a week ago against the Lions team missing D’Andre Swift, this unit has had trouble stopping the run all year allowing over 4.6 yards per carry and ranking 23rd in the league. With Adam Thielen sidelined, look for a heavy dose of Cook again and expect nothing but another All-Pro effort from the running back.

Stefon Diggs – Over 6.5 Receptions (-120)

Stefon Diggs has been arguably the most consistent wide receiver in the league since joining the Bills in the offseason. Coming off of a bye he’ll look to take on a Chargers defense that is missing starting cornerback Casey Hayward, and is down some pass rushers as well, including Melvin Ingram. On Saturday the Bills placed Diggs running mate at WR John Brown on injured reserve, meaning Diggs will get even more targets than he might in a normal week. This game should be a bit of a showcase between young quarterbacks Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, which should result in Diggs catching several balls.

Nick Chubb – Over 87.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

One of the biggest mismatches of the weekend is the Cleveland Browns running game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Jags are banged up all over what was already a not so fantastic defense overall. With Mike Glennon starting at quarterback, it’s reasonable to believe the Jaguars won’t have a lot of lengthy possessions offensively and could be trailing in the ballgame. That should mean a lot of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as the Browns will want to try to get in and out with a win. It would seem that the only way Chubb wouldn’t get over his yardage total would be if Kareem Hunt poaches a majority of the carries. Hunt should also have a nice day, but we’re anticipating Chubb will find his way to the century marker.

Darren Waller – Over 53.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Being completely honest, Darren Waller isn’t the most trustworthy player prop week in and week out. He tends to have some big games, and some quiet games which always makes banking on him risky. His game this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons is simply just too juicy to pass up though. Atlanta has been unable to slow down opposing tight ends all season giving up big days to tight ends less capable and featured in their respective offenses than Waller is with the Raiders. In a game that has a high total posted, there should be lots of scoring and Waller should be next up as a tight end monster versus these Falcons.

Russell Wilson – Over 24.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

After a shaky few week stretch that saw him turning the ball over regularly, the Seahawks Russell Wilson bounced back with a big performance in a win against the Cardinals. He’ll be on display again Monday Night taking on another quarterback who’s had big turnover issues in Carson Wentz and the Eagles. We’ve subscribed to the theory that when you have a quarterback who has the ability to run, take them during nationally televised games. It seems the QBs don’t want to make the big mistake and are more willing to tuck and run in the bright lights, and Wilson has been no exception to that rule. The matchup works as well as the Eagles can get pressure in the pocket, but aren’t great at the linebacking level. That means we could see a few of those 10 yard scrambles from Wilson, particularly if this is a close game. We’re banking on the scrambling trend continuing for Russ.

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