PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-4

SEASON RESULTS:
43-26-2

Week 9 Recap:

A frustrating day of player props for us on Sunday as a 3-4 final mark wrapped up what was a disappointing day overall. We had four quarterbacks slated to stay under their yardage and ended up hitting three of those as Lamar Jackson, Philip Rivers and Daniel Jones all finished where expected. The lone loss was Nick Foles, one that was completely dictated by game script. It was certainly unexpected that Foles would attempt over 50 passes in the game, which helped him eclipse 300 yards and his total. Speaking of game script, the Saints pure rout of the Buccaneers kept Michael Thomas at 5 catches, forcing us to lose by the hook as he was barely on the field in the second half of the game. The most surprising loss was the one that was never really even close as we were loaded up on James Conner and he was basically blanked in a game that the Steelers struggled to come back and win. Back to back 3-4 weeks isn’t going to get it done. Back to the labratory.

Week 10 Preview:

The spreads this week in the NFL don’t seem to provide a lot of value in many instances, opening the door to go heavy on some player prop bets. In fact, we had to talk ourselves out of a lot of props as we simply had too many we really felt confident in. At the end of the day, we passed on guys like Evan Engram and Christian Kirk, despite their fantastic matchups. We settled on a total of seven selections, with only one being an under. We’re hoping the good karma there helps us out with some wins this Sunday.

Our Picks:

Keenan Allen – Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

The posted number of receptions for Keenan Allen has held steady all season at a somewhat modest 6.5 receptions. The sportsbooks have not adjusted to the fact that he leads the league in targets and has only not hit the 7 catch plateau once since the opening game. At this point it’s clear that until the books do up his lines that it makes sense to play his over each and every week. Or at the very least, unless Austin Ekeler returns to the lineup. The matchup is so-so against a Dolphins defense that has played pretty well this season, but this is all about volume and consistency, something that Allen certainly has.

Matthew Stafford – Under 279.5 Yards Passing (-110)

We’ve been high on Lion’s quarterback Matthew Stafford all season and he’s generally played well despite putting up fairly pedestrian numbers more often than not. Stafford will have his hands full with an underrated Washington defense that leads the NFL in passing defense and can put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Add in the fact that he will be without his best target in Kenny Golladay and this could be a bit of a grind for him. Washington isn’t the type of team to throw a bunch of points on the board either so the game script shouldn’t lead to excessive pass attempts for Stafford. Throughout his career Stafford has never been a strangers to 300 yard passing games, but this matchup against the Washington Football Team seems like it’ll be more of a low to mid 200 yard type performance.

Tom Brady – Over 284.5 Yards Passing (-110)

A high yardage total combined with a quarterback and a team coming off of a futile performance seems like an obvious lean to the under, right? We’re taking the complete opposite approach and absolutely love Tom Brady this week against the Panthers. (If you caught our DFS article, we have him listed as our Star of the Week). It’s just so hard to imagine that last week was indicative of how Brady or his team will play the rest of the season, and particularly against the Panthers. Much of Brady’s struggles against the Saints were a result of constant pressure both directly in his face and off the edges. Expect a much better performance from the Buccaneer offensive line, especially against a Panthers front that is still developing and void of some key talent. Throughout his career Brady has loved to prove people wrong, and off his last week’s effort he should thrive in a game that most expect to be high scoring.

Antonio Gibson – Over 44.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Antonio Gibson has looked a lot like a rookie in his debut season putting together some really flashy performances and looking lost at other times. He’s lost a little bit of time in the backfield to teammate J.D. McKissic who’s been the primary receiving back and a bit better of a blocker. Despite that, Gibson has a very appealing matchup against the Lions, a team that has been run through as badly as any team in the league over the last month. If you check his game log, Gibson has played well against poor defenses and put up some duds against the better units. Asking him to get to 50 yards in a game that should feature plenty of running against this run defense seems like a pretty good play to us.

Robert Woods – Over 59.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

A guy that we had circled to look for this week facing a horrendous Seahawks pass defense is Rams wide receiver Robert Woods. Our metrics had his numbers set around 72.5 yards and we actually liked him to go over that mark. Surprisingly his yardage total is set at only 59.5 yards which is near his average mark per game on the season. Of course, he’s not facing an average defense on Sunday in a game that could see a lot of scoring. The Seahawks cannot rush the passer at all, which has caused wide receivers to be open all over the field. Woods should have plenty of room to roam and both he and Cooper Kupp are set up to put some big numbers on the board. Look for Woods to be going early and hopefully cruising past this very manageable total.

Russell Wilson – Over 18.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

The early season frontrunner for MVP has struggled a bit over the past few weeks as Russell Wilson is coming off of a 4 turnover game in Buffalo. You have to wonder if it has anything to do with Wilson feeling like he has to score every time with his defense being such a liability for his team? Sunday he faces a suddenly very important divisional game against the Los Angeles Rams who are playing as tough of defense as any team in the league. Wilson may or may not have success through the air, but this game figures to be pretty close when it’s all said and done. With the Rams playing some man coverage and Wilson potentially facing a pass rush it’s very probable that he’ll need to take off running to generate some first downs and make safe plays. If this indeed ends up being a game where Wilson tucks and runs, he should have no trouble getting over this rushing yardage total.

Michael Thomas – Over 5.5 Receptions (-120)

We got burned taking Michael Thomas at over 5.5 catches last week as he finished the game with 5 and the hook got us. There’s no such thing as yeah buts in gambling, his over total was clearly the correct side as the Saints lambasted the Buccaneers. Thomas sat out a quarter and a half or he certainly would have snagged at least another pass or two along the way. The good news is his total stays low again at 5.5 receptions this weekend and we’re willing to make a value play here, similar to what we described with Keenan Allen. The 49ers defense certainly has the ability to clamp down, but this should be a situation where Brees needs to lean on his number one target a little bit more. Assuming the Saints don’t have another 4 touchdown lead at halftime again, Thomas should stay involved and find his way to more targets and more receptions.

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