Due to a lack of cooperation from the Reds and Diamondbacks, we’re off to a lackluster 0-2 start (-2.15 units) to week 9 in the MLB. Cincinnati was super sloppy in game one of their Memorial Day doubleheader with the Pirates. A balk, fielding errors, base running gaffs, and a bullpen implosion led to an 8-5 defeat. Arizona got a quality start from Greinke but could not take advantage of several opportunities to put the Rockies away in 11 innings.
Yesterday’s decision to lay low on the Minnesota Twins cash cow proved to be fruitful. Pineda was not terrible but the Twins bullpen gave up the lead in the 8th to take the loss. All great streaks come to an end…or at least hit some speed bumps here and there. We’re looking at this as just a speed bump (as you will see below) on the road to continued early-season success.
After handicapping a full MLB slate, I’ve found a handful of solid opportunities to put my money behind. A couple of home favorites and a road dog…
San Diego Padres @ NY Yankees
Smash for the Cash: Yankees RL (-1) -180 ML/+100 RL
Sometimes you’ve gotta pay to play. Backers of the Yankees and the Twins right now know exactly what that means. Eric Lauer gets the start in the Bronx, bringing a hefty 8.24 road ERA up against a Yankees lineup that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 9 games. Lauer comes off of a pair of very good starts against Arizona and Pittsburgh in which he gave up only 2 earned runs. These came after several short outings against decent offenses, so I must weigh the fact that he is subject to road woes and managed to catch the right opponents at the right time in his last 2 outings. The Padres offense is middle-of-the-road and has been even-keeled throughout the season.
New York’s offense has been clicking this month, especially during their current 8-1 streak. 7 of those 8 wins have been by more than 1 run, so the run line is a solid option to avoid the big juice on the Yankees tonight. Tanaka has been quite sharp in his last 4 starts, giving up only 4 earned runs and 2 home runs over 25.1 innings of work. His 58 K/15 BB ratio in 2019 is top shelf and he gets the backing of a solid bullpen and an offense that is consistent and powerful.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Back on the Train: Twins RL (-1) -134 ML/+140 RL
Zach Davies had been a no-doubt quality starter prior to his last outing against Cincinnati, which saw both him and Luis Castillo bounced very early in a mid-week run fest. Davies looks to get back on track against a very potent Minnesota lineup that was held in check last night. His 2.43 ERA/4.83 xFIP combination suggests that he’s apt to regress some, but it’s difficult to say the bottom will totally drop from underneath him. The Brewers offense is on an uptick lately, which should help Davies’ cause and test his counterpart, Martin Perez.
Perez has been very good this season as well, though he may be fading a bit with a pair of mediocre outings in his last 3 starts. He sports a 2.95 ERA/4.36 xFIP tandem, similar to Davies. For this matchup, I’ll handicap any notion of regression for these starters and their metrics in general as a wash. Other than their lack of walks generated, what’s not to love about this Twins offense? The lack of walks is a long-term concern but on a per-game basis like this, they’re a bet-on. There are pros and cons to both bullpens, which are both capable units that are also small liabilities.
This Twins team is on a nice run, despite last night’s loss. They’re 8-2 in their last 10 games and have outscored their opponents by 2 or more runs in each of those wins. Minnesota has been very successful at home (18-9), but I will play this one more conservatively against a capable foe. I’ll manufacture a -1 run line by laying the money line and taking some back on the run line.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Standing in the Tide: Cardinals +113
My attempt to go against the Cardinals’ slump Friday night was a failure. In the midst of a 3-7 stretch, I’m backing St. Louis yet again. Adam Wainwright has had his struggles lately, especially in his last 2 road starts against Atlanta and Chicago where walks were certainly a killer. He will be facing a Phillies lineup that has scored 6 or more runs in the 3 wins on their 3-1 run.
Nick Pivetta is the reason why I’m willing to back the Cardinals and a mediocre Adam Wainwright. St. Louis is a good team that is struggling, but is presented with a great opportunity to break out against Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was just called back up from AAA to make his first MLB start since April 16th. His first stint with the Phillies this season saw him give up 17 earned runs in 18.1 innings. His .413 BABIP tells me that Pivetta was getting punished for his mistakes over the plate. This is something that the Cardinals can and should take advantage of. The question is whether Wainwright can keep the damage to a minimum. I’ll take that chance and ride with the dog in Philly.
