Super Wild Card Weekend Preview:
After a successfully documented Prop Corner season for the BetCrushers equaling nearly a 63% winning percentage, it’s time to tackle the playoffs where the stakes are higher and the stars shine brighter. It’s fair to say the playoffs are an entirely different animal in handicapping player proposition bets. In reality, in comparison to the very tight lines against the spread, we’re more bullish on the opportunities here with these six games. Seven total wagers but even numbers as we start with a couple of unders and go forward with four overs. A few quarterback plays, two of which involve their legs, a couple of possession wide receivers, and a constant in this season’s Prop Corner with Nick Chubb as a featured running back.
Our Picks:
Russell Wilson – Under 249.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Can anyone recall the last time a team started so well offensively and so poorly defensively, only to complete flip halfway through the season? The Seattle Seahawks offense has really stalled down the stretch which is tough to explain, other than the fact their offensive line isn’t playing well. Against a tough Rams defense that they’ve struggled a bit with they’ll hope to get things cranked up in both the running and passing game. Jalen Ramsey has been a lock down corner all season and will look to thwart D.K. Metcalf yet again. It’s fair and even smart to believe that Wilson will be clutch enough to win this game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will light it up in the passing game. It’s hard to believe that Wilson has only thrown for more than 250 yards once in the last eight football games, and that was only 263 yards. Don’t forget too that in big moments, he’ll often tuck and run if he’s under pressure so his attempts could be somewhat low in what most expect to be an overall low-scoring game. With that recent track record, we’ll take the under.
Antonio Gibson – Under 47.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Antonio Gibson has put together a really nice rookie season and appears to have a nice future in the NFL. As a heavy underdog, he and the Washington Football team have a big challenge ahead of them when they host the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a pretty complete team and as always their defense begins with shutting down opposing runners. The Bucs led the league in rushing yards allowed as well as yards per carry with a stingy 3.6 mark. Gibson has only had 2 games with over 20 carries all year (both against the horrendous Cowboys run defense) and his average yards rushing per game is only 56 yards. That includes a lot of really soft defenses alone the way. He will have a little tougher time against Tampa, and even if Washington can keep it close and stick with the run, there is no guarantee he can make it over his total.
Lamar Jackson – Over 72.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The Ravens are getting hot at the right time and their offense really is shouldered by Lamar Jackson and his play. Despite the fact that Mike Vrabel has seemingly had his number with the Titans in their brief history, there is very little reason to believe that Jackson won’t have a big day running the football in the early game on Sunday. Jackson has been on a tear and looked fast and explosive running the football and seems to be having fun again doing it. Even in last year’s disappointing loss to the Titans where the Ravens fell behind and couldn’t come back, many people forget he actually rushed for 150 yards in that game. The Titans are better at defending the run than the pass, however better is a relative term as they aren’t too great at the former either. We expect the Ravens may get revenge this year, but even if they don’t Jackson still should pick up some good yardage on the ground.
Josh Allen – Over 23.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Speaking of running quarterbacks we should probably take a look at another AFC signal caller who’s capable of running the football. It’s been slightly forgotten as Josh Allen has been so impressive moving the ball downfield through the air, that he’s also one of the best scramblers at the position. The Colts are one of the best at stopping the run so don’t expect the Bills to line up and hand it off to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss a whole lot in a predictable offense. Coordinator Brian Daboll will likely spread out the Colts and try to attack their secondary and he knows he needs to be creative to move the sticks. There should be some scripted quarterback runs or draws, and with the crowd firing the Bills up for the first time all season, Allen will be running hard. Unless this game gets out of hand, which it shouldn’t, JA should find his way over his rushing total on Saturday.
Nick Chubb – Over 63.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Even if you’re not a Browns fan, you have to feel a little sympathetic for how things are lining up for their first playoff game in what feels like forever. The team will be without key players due to their COVID-19 outbreak and without head coach and guru Kevin Stefanski. You’d have to believe that means the team will lean on its “known” entities, which on offense is running back Nick Chubb. A week ago Chubb had a solid day and broke a long touchdown against the Steelers, albeit as they were resting a few key players on their defense. It’ll be a little tougher with a full Steeler defense playing in Pittsburgh, but Chubb is one of the most consistent runners in the league. After a great start to their season defensively, the Steelers have softened a bit against the run as the loss of Devin Bush has certainly impacted them up the middle. Unless the Steelers are up huge, and the game script changes dramatically, there should be a lot of physical running from Chubb in this ballgame.
Cooper Kupp – Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
If you believe in avoiding wide receivers that are playing with either subpar quarterbacks or unknown quarterbacks then this play isn’t for you. Before you scroll on though, don’t forget that Cooper Kupp regularly plays without stellar QB play as Jared Goff isn’t exactly Peyton Manning behind center. Yes, we don’t know if Goff will be healed enough to play or if it’ll be John Wolford, but we’re banking on Cupp to catch some passes either way as his reception total is set at a very beatable 4.5 catches. Against a tough Seahawks run defense the Rams are going to have to throw and Sean McVay is not afraid to run bubble screens and short passes all day long, a handful of which should be aimed at Cupp. Going back to week seven, Cupp has caught at least 5 passes in every game except for one, and that includes two matchups against these same Seattle Seahawks. The yards may not be there for either Cupp or his partner Robert Woods, but each should still get the ball in their hands half a dozen times.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)
It feels almost dirty to take an over of a player who has been running his mouth and done not a whole lot throughout the season. Sports betting is all about trying to make money though, so we’ll roll our eyes and hope that JuJu Smith-Schuster can begrudgingly come through for us. Outside of his Tik-Tok antics he’s been a somewhat forgotten receiver as he failed to top 100 yards in any game this season and averaged a paltry 8.3 yards per catch. What he was though was a true possession receiver as he hauled in 97 receptions. Since week number seven, Smith-Schuster failed to hit 6 or more receptions only one time, and that was a 5 catch outing in a game the Ravens were up by three scores going into halftime. He should find himself north of that number as the Steelers look to take down their divisional opponent Sunday evening.
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