Divisional Weekend Review:
As has been the case for much of the 2021 NFL season, our player prop bets were basically treading water yet again during the Divisional Round. We managed to secure a 3-2 overall mark, but with such a good read on the games as a whole, a better result was expected and needed. Here’s a quick summary of what went right and what went wrong: Things started out with a nice sweep in the Bengals-Titans matchup as Julio Jones hit his yardage total, and Tee Higgins eclipsed his receptions mark early in the third quarter. Things backed up a bit as we fell just 2 rushing attempts short for 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell. He had a couple of late carries poached by Deebo Samuel, and a couple of carries taken away via penalty. Our final two plays split in the Bills and Chiefs epic battle, as Josh Allen went well over his rushing yardage, but Mecole Hardman couldn’t quite get to his receiving yardage total. Hardman had a productive day running, but wasn’t involved in the passing game until overtime.
Championship Round Preview:
With only two games, the prop betting has to become more selective, unless you simply want to shotgun a bunch of bets to see what happens. We’re sticking with our normal plan, which in this case is simply two wagers, one in each contest. We’re fading a really good quarterback, a strategy that admittedly hasn’t worked well this season for us. Here we are though, thin to win, let’s get it.
Our Picks:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Over 34.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
There is an absolute risk that comes with taking a yardage over of a player who isn’t guaranteed snaps during a football game. In reality, any wager placed invokes some form of risk, so we’re ok with betting the yardage over of Chief’s running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After a pretty solid start to the season, Edwards-Helaire missed a lot of time with various injuries, which ultimately led to the emergence of others in the KC backfield. Jerick McKinnon is the current leader in the clubhouse it seems as his rested legs have earned him some extra playing time as a runner and receiver. With that being said, CEH should receive a solid number of snaps in their game against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals will do as most teams have and play a predominant cover two shell to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game. That means the opportunities to run will be there for the Chiefs when they want to take them. In a similar situation a week ago, Edwards-Helaire took advantage of the soft defense and broke off a few nice runs on the way to a 60 yard performance on only 7 carries. That should get CEH some totes against Cincinnati, and if he can get another 7 or 8 carries, he should definitely threaten this total. Sure it’s a gamble, but that’s why it’s called gambling.
Matthew Stafford – Under 287.5 Yards Passing (-115)
When the Los Angeles Rams traded for quarterback Matthew Stafford, they made a statement that they were all in on winning now, and all in on Stafford as the man to guide them. The season has been a little up and down for the veteran signal-caller, but certainly more up, as he has his team poised to play in the Super Bowl with just one more win. The challenge he has Sunday, is he’ll need to beat the San Francisco 49ers, a team that has beaten Stafford and the Rams in both meetings this season. If you caught our weekly plays article, we’re expecting a close and relatively lower-scoring game when these teams meet for the third and final time. With that, we’re doubling down a bit and fading quarterback Matthew Stafford in terms of his passing yardage. Stafford is always a threat to top 300+ yards, and has no shortage of weapons headlined by All-World receiver Cooper Kupp. In this contest, his total is set at a pretty optimistic 287.5 yards, which is just high enough for us to lean under. For starters, we can look at how Stafford performed in his two meetings against San Francisco, which resulted in 243 yards and 238 yards, respectively. Next, we’ll look at his six most recent games, which saw Stafford eclipse that mark only twice, once of which was against a basic practice squad of defensive backs in Baltimore. Playing the other side of the fence, the 49ers have had some trouble in their secondary this season allowing big plays. This is as healthy as their unit has been, and with an aggressive front seven, they should be able to hold up at least keeping plays in front of them. The Rams may win this game, and Stafford may play great, but we’ll trust the numbers and look for a little milder performance out of the veteran.
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