It’s time, boys and girls. For a while there looked to be no end in sight for the winter lockout. And here we are: Opening Day. I’m pumped to get things going with Opening Day 2022 handicapping for the remaining seven games on Thursday’s slate. For our new followers – first off, THANKS for checking us out – I usually post 3-5 times a week with handicaps on a few of my favorite MLB positions of the day. That’s it, no strings attached.
Much of my offseason prep can be found in our division previews on our MLB page. If you want the long form of where I see each team, click the link and scroll down under 2022 Division Previews to find all six. Otherwise, BOL and we’ll be back for Friday’s full day of games!
BOSTON RED SOX @ NEW YORK YANKEES (-160)
*** POSTPONED TO FRIDAY 7/8 ***
N. Eovaldi (R) vs. G. Cole (R)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ CHICAGO CUBS (+140)
C. Burnes (R) vs. K. Hendricks (R)
One hour after first pitch in the Bronx, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes will lead the Brewers into Wrigley Field to face a familiar NL Central foe. Opening Day in Chicago looks to be brisk with a strong wind blowing straight out to right. Burnes has the tools to keep the Cubbies at bay: swing-and-miss stuff coupled with plenty of ground balls. Tie his sub-3.00 FIP expectations in with cold temps and Chicago’s weakness against righties and you can see why the books have set the Brewers around a -160 favorite.
I don’t have much separation between these two offenses in this scenario irrespective of starting pitcher. A strong edge of close to 2 runs of FIP goes to Burnes over the contact-first Kyle Hendricks. The Brewers have some left-handed muscle in Tellez and Yelich (maybe ?) that could take advantage of Hendricks’ – just don’t neglect to factor in the low temps Thursday afternoon. If you’re playing the Brewers side in this one, it’s likely not due to Milwaukee’s offense. You’re getting one of the league’s best starters and a tough high-leverage bullpen unit in Brad Boxberger, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader. I’m inclined to lay the -1 behind Burnes and the Brew Crew, but this one’s at Wrigley so any wager other than straight up money line is currently unavailable.
NEW YORK METS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS
TBD vs. P. Corbin (L)
The New York Mets have not designated a starter for Opening Day as of this article’s publishing. Pass – you know, starting pitchers kinda matter!
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+100)
S. Bieber (R) vs. Z. Greinke (R)
2020 AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber takes the mound at windy Kauffman Stadium for this AL Central matchup. He opposes K.C.’s 38-year-old Zack Greinke who is making his Royals homecoming twelve years after leaving the team. Bieber holds a firm advantage over his senior counterpart in most respects except limiting hard contact. When Greinke’s oddball stuff is on, he can be quite frustrating after all. My base case centers on both pitchers not having much resistance through five innings as each lineup is less adept against right-handers.
With both bullpens fresh and assuming that both starters grind into the 6th inning, Kansas City offers bettors an edge with their bullpen. Emmanuel Clase aside, the Royals relief unit sets up to be a more well-rounded unit in 2022. Whether that plays out in game one of the season is debatable. Monitor the weather closer to game day if you are on the fence here – currently the 20 mph wind is forecast to cut across the diamond, combining with the cool temps and less-prolific lineups to create a pitcher-friendly situation. I may be a touch too bullish on Cleveland’s offense rebounding slightly as I give the Guardians a 3% production edge versus the Royals with these specific starters.
WAGER: [0.5u] Guardians First 5 Innings -127
WAGER: [0.5u] Guardians First 5 Innings -1/2 (+110)
I’ll be straight with you on this one – I could not make up my mind whether reaching for a little plus money with the hook was worth it. So I did what you’ll see from me occasionally throughout the season: splitting the difference. Especially with conditions that are far from amenable to run scoring. Either way, my handicap puts the first 5 inning situation at about 6.5% better than the full game for Cleveland. Much of that clearly rests on Shane Bieber and the edge I believe he carries over a scrappy Zack Greinke.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-205)
JT Brubaker (R) vs. A. Wainwright (R)
From the AL Central to the NL Central we go, adding about 15 degrees of air temp between Minnesota and St. Louis. Thursday’s midwestern winds pose more of a factor at Busch Stadium than Target Field with 18-ish mph heading out to right. You won’t see this Cardinals lineup platoon much outside of the DH spot (Albert Pujols and Corey Dickerson) and Thursday’s version is weaker to right-handers like JT Brubaker. In our NL Central preview I noted that Brubaker was punished for a 2.03 HR/9 inning rate last season and could parlay his limited experience into being one of the Pirates’ more productive starters. Last year’s 5.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP discrepancy has much to do with that excessive home run rate. Then again, our first 5 inning bet specialist friend Mr. Pig has strong feelings against Brubaker – so that has weight in my handicapping process.
St. Louis’ old faithful Adam Wainwright continues to be an inning-eater deep into his career. The 40-year-old doesn’t fool many batters but his arsenal is deep and effective enough to produce a lot of ground balls. Both clubs present middling bullpens, though the Cardinals’ group offers a tougher back end with multiple high-leverage options. This could be time for Daniel Vogelbach to shine as a lefty who can take advantage of a strong wind out to right. Then again, he’s a low-average guy so depending on him to cash a ticket may be easier said than done. One would think that St. Louis’ better team can get the Opening Day win but the price is fair enough in both directions to keep me off of this game.
CINCINNATI REDS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (-210)
T. Mahle (R) vs. M. Fried (L)
The World Series Champion Atlanta Braves deservedly pull the primetime ESPN game against my stripped-down Cincinnati Reds. Tyler Mahle put things together last season via a fastball/splitter combo that led to an improved hard hit rate and strikeouts. His hands will be full with an Atlanta lineup that should be tough on righties again, especially with incoming first baseman left-handed Matt Olson who can take advantage of pretty much any pitcher. The Braves present a tough lineup from top to bottom despite starting the year without Ronald Acuna, Jr. That said, Mahle is far from a slouch. Will he get enough run support is probably the better question here.
My problem with this Cincinnati lineup is just how poorly they may perform against southpaw pitchers – again. Tommy Pham takes the edge off of losing Nick Castellanos in this regard; otherwise, the Reds do not stack up well whatsoever against Max Fried with Donovan Solano on the IL. The 28-year-old lefty Fried went deep into his starts as the 2021 season went on and he could make it through the 6th with a high ground ball rate and a sharp defense behind him. Give Atlanta’s starter and bullpen a firm edge over Cincinnati’s offering even though Mahle should hold his own for 5 innings. Atlanta’s 20% advantage at the plate is more than enough to start their title defense on the right foot. Atlanta is the side here, though the price is prohibitive for my taste and there’s not enough for me to take Cincy in the primetime opener.
HOUSTON ASTROS @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS (-120)
F. Valdez (L) vs. S. Ohtani (R)
AL MVP Shohei Ohtani gets the Opening Day nod and distinction of leading off the Angels’ lineup against 2021 AL Pennant winner Houston. And when it comes to L.A.’s bats, they have a trio in Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout that can feast on lefties. I’m high on Framber Valdez being that tough six-inning rotation piece for the Astros this season. However, this is the type of lineup that should pose plenty of hard-hitting challenges Thursday night.
Houston is more than willing to fight fire with fire – via an offense that really does not care whether they face a right-hander or a lefty. The top 2/3rds of their lineup is filled with .275+ hitters, most of whom have game-changing power. Duly noted that rookie Jeremy Pena poses a 30% offensive dropoff from Carlos Correa but that does not reduce them from the top tier of righty-hitting lineups. Ohtani’s swing-and-miss stuff can be susceptible to hard contact. Whether that takes the form of ground balls into an improved defense likely makes the difference between him handing the ball off with a lead or not. This sets up to be strength on strength on this warm night in Orange County.
WAGER: [0.75u] Astros +115
WAGER: [0.25u] Over 8.5 -105
Both bullpens have strong high-leverage segments with good depth, so I don’t handicap a strong distinction between a first 5 inning wager and full game. If anything, there is a potential leveling out of edges once Valdez exits the contest. At least in terms of Opening Day handicapping where I’m relying on larger projections to dial in on a singular contest. The Angels have a strong bias against left-handed pitching that will give way to an edge in the bullpen department. My numbers dial in on what should be closer to a 50/50 proposition – so I’ll take the slight dog money and hope to cash on an expected 3.5% edge. I sliced a full-unit position into 3/4 on the Astros side and 1/4 on the total over 8.5 runs.
SAN DIEGO PADRES @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (+145)
Y. Darvish (R) vs. M. Bumgarner (L)
A full run of FIP separates these starters. Nearly a half-run of FIP lies between their relief corps. Then add a pair of offenses that vary drastically in terms of raw production value – without Fernando Tatis, Jr., mind you. I have about an 9% premium attributed to the Padres over the Diamondbacks given the opposing starters’ handedness. San Diego arguably warrants the big price, especially with a formidable righty starter on the mound. (Keep an eye out for undervalued spots with this Diamondbacks offense against left-handed pitching this season when most of the Varsho, Marte, Kelly, Ahmed, and Rojas group is in the lineup.) Yu Darvish gives his club a leg up here as a solid 4.00-FIP starter with very good strikeout and swinging strike rates. Plus I appreciate his decent hard hit and ground ball numbers. It’s an uphill climb for Arizona to overcome a modest outing from Darvish.
In a weird stroke of scheduling, this will mark the fourth straight season in which Bumgarner’s first start has come against the Padres. Practice makes perfect, right? Well, the D-backs most likely need a repeat of one of Madison Bumgarner’s best games in recent seasons to hang in this one. Ironically, last season MadBum had a stretch of 6 starts and another of 7 where he allowed no more than 2 runs. And all 7 of his wins came during those “on” periods. To say that the grizzled 32-year-vet was a boom-or-bust starter throughout 2021 is fair, which makes overpaying to fade him a dicey proposition. Fortunately there’s still enough beef in the San Diego lineup to balance out the filler.
WAGER: Padres First 5 Innings -1/2 (-120)
San Diego laying -150 or better over the full game is fair in this scenario given the edges in all four main areas (offense, defense, starting pitcher, bullpen). But the full game price got away from me and has crossed -160. When it comes to the latter innings, the Padres bullpen should statistically maintain an edge over Arizona’s as it is packed full of quality righties. And closer Mark Melancon is about the only truly reliable high-leverage reliever in Arizona’s sea of bulk arms.
Bumgarner could very well start the season in one of those “on” modes, but I’ll play the odds and back the tough matchup that Darvish presents by laying the half run in the first 5 innings. Chalky? Perhaps. But my numbers consider an additional 3.5% edge with the first 5 innings so I needed a way to play this edge. Would the ol’ tie ballgame after the 5th be a kick in the pants? Absolutely, but laying the half run is how I’ll wrap up Opening Day 2022 handicapping. BOL to you all (unless you’re oppo, of course)!
Heading for Home
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