Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 10-12
WEEK 6 RECAP:
How about a little deflection as we loaded up and crushed our prop bets in week six. But as far as our key NFL plays, another quiet week both in number of plays and results for us as we backed up a little bit further turning in a ho-hum 1-2 performance. There has to be a week coming where the opportunities for mega plays are out there for us, we just haven’t had that the last couple of weeks. Our three plays were really a mixed bag when you break it down. One was an easy winner, one was a bad loser, and the other was a loser that should have been a winner. The last one are the tough ones as they turn a potential week in the black into a week in the red. We felt really good about our Thursday night play taking the Giants total under 12.5. We assumed the Giants would score between 3-10 points on offense, which is exactly what they did putting up one touchdown on a long pass to Golden Tate. What destroyed our chances was what we didn’t expect to happen, which was a defensive touchdown by the G-Men off of a Brady sack and fumble. That’s the chance you take playing such a low total and it bit us good in that one. The Eagles/Vikings game went exactly as we scripted and we had the over total covered pretty early in that one as Minnesota torched the horrible secondary of the Eagles, while Carson Wentz was able to keep the Eagles semi-competitive in a tough spot. Our teaser teams got down early and although both had opportunities to get it done at the end of the game, it didn’t happen, and neither the Cowboys nor the Titans deserved to cover those teasers.
WEEK 7 PLAYS:
Another “meh” week on the NFL card as that monster week on the slate still doesn’t seem to be there for the taking. We do have four total plays that we think can get us to the pay window although they’ll admittedly need some things to fall into place in order for that to happen. We’ll start with a bit of an amateur bet on Thursday night and follow that with an under, another two-team teaser and a wager on the NFC East Sunday Night Football Showdown.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
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Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) ATS(3-3) at Denver Broncos (2-4) ATS(3-3)
Thursday October 17th
8:20pm
NFL Network, FOX
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-115)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
An all of a sudden important AFC West game kicks off week seven when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver to take on the rival Broncos in prime time. What a difference just ten days can make as KC comes in having lost two straight while Denver has won their last two contests making this division a lot more competitive and interesting. Remember when Kansas City was a lock for the AFC Championship game, Mahomes was the clear favorite for MVP and Denver was going to have a top three draft pick? Such is life these days in the NFL.
When the Chiefs lost to the Colts it was a little bit of a shock, yet no one seemed to be panicking as it was clearly just one game. A second straight home loss to the Texans and the sky is suddenly falling in Kansas City. A road trip to a rival on a short week to a hot rival is not necessarily the medicine needed for a rebound when you examine the situation, so let’s take a closer look. First, here is what KC has working against them: Andy Reid has a short week to prepare and throughout his career he has proven that he can benefit from extra prep time and struggle when he can’t put a full plan together. Second, this team is really thin at some key positions with some of their high tier talent. They’ll again be without two starters on the offensive line to protect their hobbled leader Patrick Mahomes. Sammy Watkins won’t be able to go with his hamstring injury putting the pressure on Tyreek Hill who was a welcomed bright spot for this team a week ago. The injuries are not ideal in the hostile Mile High venue against the Bronco defense that is ranked fourth overall despite losing Bradley Chubb in week three for the season. Here’s the thing about that stat though, that defense has not really been tested as Green Bay is the only opponent they’ve played that really has a solid offensive unit, and they were dominated in that game. There are some big keys for KC offensively and it’s actually not involving Mahomes, Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Demarcus Robinson was shut out against the Texans and with Chris Harris more than likely locking in on Hill, Robinson must have a big game. The other area of great importance is in the running game. Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy need to keep the chains moving and the Chiefs offense on the field, particularly if they’re not hitting big plays. In the altitude the Chiefs cannot afford to have their struggling defense on the field the entire game.
All of a sudden the potential fire sale in the Bronco’s organization has turned into optimism and high hopes for defying the odds of starting a season 0-4 and making the playoffs. The Broncos have taken to Vic Fangio’s style of play and are winning with good defense, timely plays and a strong ground game. They’ll match up pretty well in this game against the Chiefs defense (yes most teams match up well with that D) as Phillip Lindsay will look to grind down the Chiefs like Carlos Hyde was able to do four days ago. The absence of Chris Jones on the KC defensive line really hurts a team that struggled in the trenches to begin with. Joe Flacco and the offense will be looking for 10 play drives that keep the ball away from Mahomes and wear that defense down into the second half. Time of possession could end up being the most key stat at the end of this game. Can Denver hold the ball for 2/3 of the game and punch in touchdowns in the red zone? If they can, they’ll have a realistic chance of winning this game at home.
KEY STATS – The Chiefs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the AFC West
– The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Broncos
When you read the analysis there appears to be a lot of reasons to doubt the Chiefs laying points on the road. The line seems a little fishy and the public like the fantasy all-stars of the Chiefs which is always a big red flag. The biggest reason for looking at the Chiefs has less to do with their talented group of players, and more to do with the value here. This line opened at -4 and with the injuries moved down to -3. Just ten days ago this line would have been more like -8 to -10. There is serious value here even if momentum and homefield advantage are not on the side of the Chiefs. In a game that could have some meaningful repercussions down the road in the AFC is Joe Flacco really going to beat Patrick Mahomes? You can call this one a square bet and we won’t disagree with you, but we’re taking the better team in this one.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Kansas City Chiefs 29, Denver Broncos 23
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
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Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) ATS(2-4) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3) ATS(3-3)
Sunday October 20th
8:20pm
NBC
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -3 (EVEN)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
The two front-runners for NFC East champion will meet in Dallas with the winner taking the lead in the division and the loser falling below .500 nearly halfway through the season. The Cowboys have won the previous three meetings against the Eagles and other than laying an egg against the Packers have been a strong team at AT&T Stadium. Will they be able to continue their recent dominance against the Eagles and stop their three game losing streak or will Doug Pederson’s confident winning predictions come to fruition for the still hobbled Eagles?
The Eagles are only ranked 20th in the league in offense through their first six games which has to be disappointing for a team that was expected to move the ball and score easily this season. The absence of DeSean Jackson is having a clear impact on them as it completely changes the way opposing defenses are able to play them. Carson Wentz has played gritty ball and kept the Eagles competitive even with the defense taking on water repeatedly. It’s not just the lack of the deep threat that has hurt this offense, the big men upfront have not played as well as the team had expected so far. They’ll be without stalwart Jason Peters at left tackle as he’ll miss the game so we’ll get a good look at their first round draft pick Andre Dillard. Robert Quinn has been one of the few bright spots over the last few weeks for a struggling Cowboys defense so the matchup of Dillard and Quinn will be one to keep a close eye on. Dallas has gotten pushed around on the interior and Pederson will need to stay balanced with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to control the line of scrimmage in the ground game. Another Eagle that has been somewhat quiet is tight end Zach Ertz. He and Wentz have made some connections, but compared to the volume and productivity they had in the previous seasons something hasn’t quite clicked yet. He’ll need to have a big game Sunday to help draw some coverage away from the Philly wideouts.
Cowboy head coach Jason Garrett has been feeling the heat in the media, something that’s not new to him or the organization on the heels of their recent losing streak. Dallas actually had a decent plan against the Jets in week six and did a great job getting Ezekiel Elliott back to being the focal point on offense. The big issues came defensively where they were burned by big plays and in losing the turnover battle. Over the past few weeks we’ve highlighted the Eagles injury problems, but as of recently, the Cowboys are saddled with some significant injuries of their own. Amari Cooper is very questionable to be able to play with his thigh bruise and Randall Cobb is still yet to practice. Both Cowboy Pro Bowl tackles missed the game against the Jets and it still remains to be seen if they’ll be able to go against Philadelphia or if they’ll be limited. All of this puts a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott and Elliott to shoulder the load on that side of the ball. While they are capable of doing that, this offense goes from average to darn good when they have other contributors and are hitting big plays. Check the injury report after Friday as who the Cowboys have available for this game could play a big factor in the outcome.
If you monitor the trends you’ll find that the Eagles have done very well as underdogs ATS on the road, while Dallas as done well as a home favorite ATS. Something has to break in this one and it could possibly be the scoreboard as neither team is playing very good defense. In Philly it’s due to subpar talent in the secondary and some really key injuries. In Dallas it’s a little more of a mystery as this defense should be performing at a much higher level than they actually are. Divisional games can seem tough to handicap, however they’re usually a little easier as the teams know each other well and we generally know what we’re getting with them. Here are a couple of things we pretty much can bank on for this game: It’s probably going to be a close game that comes down to some late scoring to determine the outcome. In games like that, taking the point is obviously beneficial. We can also bank on the fact that the Eagles will be better coached with Pederson and Jim Schwartz, compared to Garrett and Rod Marinelli. Philadelphia is a very live dog in this game and if you’re a risk taker you may want to consider grabbing them on the ML which you can get for as high as +130, or possibly splitting your play between the ML and taking the points. We’ll have a unit on this game for now, and we’ll possibly be adding to that depending on the Cowboys final injury report.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles +3
Philadelphia Eagles 31, Dallas Cowboys 30
Teaser Bet
San Francisco vs. Washington and New Orleans vs. Chicago
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San Francisco 49ers (5-0) (4-1 ATS) at Washington Redskins (1-5) (1-5 ATS)
Sunday October 20th
1:00pm
FOX
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
San Francisco 49ers -9 (-125)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints (5-1) (4-2 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-2)(2-3 ATS)
Sunday October 20th
4:25pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -3 (-115)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
One of the questions that is often debated in sports betting is whether to ride a hot team or try to decipher when they’re due for a crash. Two of the hottest teams in the league are the 49ers who have yet to taste defeat, and the Saints who haven’t missed a beat with Drew Brees on the sideline. We’re betting on the fact that these teams can stay somewhat hot in road games but need a little boost to secure their covers due to the totals.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: SAN FRANCISCO -3 and NEW ORLEANS +9
We’ll give ourselves a little pat on the back for picking the Niners as a rising team in the preseason, but we can’t say that we knew they’d be quite as good as they’ve looked so far this year. Their defense is the most improved in the league and although QB Jimmy Garroppollo hasn’t been spectacular he has given the offense enough to win games and in relatively easy fashion. Jimmy G will be taking on a Redskins team and defense that is still in quite a bit of disarray despite landing their first win against the hapless Dolphins last week. The Skins’ have actually played pretty hard all things considered, they simply don’t have enough talent or motivation defensively. San Francisco should be able to impose their will on that defense with their offensive line and control the tempo of the game as they’ve done all season. It won’t be surprising if the Niners don’t light up the score sheet, but they should certainly be able to make enough plays to put up some points when they need to.
The real mismatch in this game is with the Redskins offense lining up against the 49ers very strong defensive unit. Outside of the mentioned game with the Dolphins, Washington has not been able to run block at all or give their quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw. The 49ers will completely overwhelm this group and you can plan on a lot of punts by Washington and probably some turnovers. The Redskins team total is at 14.5 and we’ll be pretty surprised if they’re able to go over that mark. If you like prop bets, keep a close eye on the Niners sack prop as this is the kind of game where they can easily pile up 5 or more sacks.
In another important NFC contest Teddy Bridgewater gets another start and faces his toughest test yet against the Bears defense at Soldier Field in Chicago. Bridgewater has done everything you could ask of a backup quarterback and then some as he’s been poised and efficient steering the team to continued victories. He’s kept Michael Thomas a focal point in the passing game and found a way to get Jared Cook, Ted Ginn and others involved when Thomas is doubled. Throw in the fact that Alvin Kamara has been key in the game plan and this offense can still do a little damage even without Drew Brees. It will be tough against the Bears but they do get a bit of a break with Akiem Hicks being placed on IR which hurts the their depth and rotation. Look for Matt Nagy to try to take away Michael Thomas in the passing game so for the Saints to find success they’ll need Kamara and Latavius Murray to get some things going on the ground.
The Bears get QB Mitchell Trubisky back after missing time and look to both rebound and get their offense scoring points. Since Drew Brees has been out of the lineup the Saints defense has really stepped up to support Bridgewater and the offense. What will the Bears offensive gameplan look like against this Saints defense? Can they establish a running game? Will Allen Robinson and their receivers be able to get free against the Saints secondary with how well they’re playing? More than likely Chicago will look to control field position and not make a lot of big plays or mistakes on that side of the ball. The total of this game is set at 38 and that might be generous based on the actual matchups and trends here.
Key Stats – The Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
The Saints are 9-2 SU in their last 11 road games
Picking these two games against the spread we’d go with San Francisco and New Orleans which makes teasing them very appealing because of the dynamics of each game. San Francisco should probably blow out Washington however 9 or 10 points is a big number to lay on the road. They could easily be up 14 or 16 points and give up a backdoor garbage score to kill the bet. The Saints and Bears game should be a defensive slugfest as long as New Orleans takes care of the ball on offense. Getting the Saints to +9 seems like plenty of points in what almost certainly will be a one possession or one score ballgame when it’s all said and done.
BetCrushers Take: Tease San Francisco -3 and New Orleans +9
49ers 26, Redskins 10 and Bears 19, Saints 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) ATS(3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6) ATS(3-3)
Sunday October 20th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Jacksonville and Cincinnati square off in an AFC showdown that probably has more draft ramifications than anything else at this point in the season. Speaking of draft picks the Jaguars landed a few good ones dealing disgruntled All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday. Will that deal have any impact on the outcome of this game or is it business as usual for two teams scrapping to find a victory?
The Gardner Minshew hype train slowed down a bit last week after Minshew actually played a little bit like a rookie for the first time since he’s been at the helm. Fortunately for him he has a matchup against the leagues 31st ranked defense that is also missing their best corner as Dre Kirkpatrick will not be able to go in this game. The Bengals have struggled against the run and the pass so the Jags should have success in whichever area they want to try to exploit. Look for them to try to get Leonard Fournette going early and taking some shots off of play action if they have success running the ball. Minshew stated he’s eager to rebound off of his performance last week so you can expect him to be prepared and ready to go. He’ll need to stay patient and take what the defense gives him though and not try to hit home runs when they’re not there.
Andy Dalton continues to get blasted in the Cincinnati media which is really unfair based on what he’s dealing with on that offense. There are calls for rookie Ryan Finley to get his chance behind center to see what he can offer at this level, which honestly seems like leading a lamb to slaughter. Make no mistake, we’re not considering Andy Dalton as an elite QB in the league, but he is by no means the reason the Bengals are yet to win their first game under head coach Zac Taylor. Joe Mixon has been a complete non-factor and disappointment as the Bengals offensive line has been able to do absolutely nothing to get him loose in the running game. With Dalton routinely having to throw before his routes are timed, or flat our scrambling for his life this offense is as good, or in this case as pathetic, as their offensive line. Give the Bengals some credit in the sense that they knew the line was an issue and tried to address it in the offseason, injuries unfortunately derailed that plan before it ever got started. Calais Campbell and company have a solid advantage in the battle of the lines which will spell continued frustration and trouble for Cincinnati in this game.
If you’re looking for a showcase game on Sunday go ahead and flip right past this one. This game is pretty much only watchable if you’re a fan of one of these teams, which we know there aren’t too many, or if you’ve got some action on it. For us it will be the latter as we like the probability that there will be some ineptness on offense, particularly for the Bengals. With the total at 44 it wouldn’t take a ton to put it over, but it’s hard to see things happenening to get it past the number. Raise your glass with us and make a toast for a lot of running plays, punts and field goals
