Previous Week Plays – 0-2
Season Record – 9-10
WEEK 5 RECAP:
The NFL season is always a marathon and not a sprint, but coming into week six and not being above .500 is very disappointing. We were very cautious in week five as there wasn’t a ton of value or opportunities in a lot of games from our perspective. The downside of only having two wagers is you only have two opportunities to win, and in this particular case, we definitely did not. As always, part of handicapping is trying to figure out if we were on the right side and just had some bad luck or if we just flat out missed. In this case it seems like one of each.
Our first pick was taking the under total at 50 in the Falcons at Texans game hoping for some field goals and a struggling Atlanta offense. We got neither. The only thing that struggled in this game was the Atlanta defense and boy did they every struggle. They allowed the Texans to throw up a 50 burger on them and blew the under all by themselves. We knew Atlanta’s defense was bad, we just didn’t think it was going to be that horrendous. It’s not even worth trying to dissect any further, it was just a wager that we wish we could have back. But since we like to torture ourselves and believe in full and honest transparency… Here are the drive charts of the game that we repeat, we took the under on. At this point all we can do is laugh and cry.
As far as our teaser, we felt pretty strongly that would be a winner as we’re always pretty selective when we tease games. Minnesota did their part winning easily as we expected so all we needed was a straight up win from the Chargers against a winless Denver team, not too much to ask, right? Well, the Chargers didn’t start playing football until they dug themselves into an early hole with penalties, turnovers, blown assignments and poor special teams play. By the time they started to climb back it was too little too late, causing their head coach Anthony Lynn to apologize to America for having to watch their damn game. Yeah, we feel you Anthony, we needed you to show up and you let us down. No regrets on that teaser, it just didn’t work out this time.
WEEK 6 PLAYS:
Another interesting slate for week six without a marquee matchup but a few interesting contests in both conferences, including some opportunities to get some ticket slips in hand. We’re getting in the the Thursday night game for the first time since week one, are taking a crack at an over in what’s probably the top game of the week, and have another teaser that we really like. We’ll potentially be adding more plays before Sunday, however we want to wait to check out some practice injury reports as there are some really big time players that are “iffy” this week. Here are the three that we’ve bought into so far:
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
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New York Giants (2-3) ATS(2-3) at New England Patriots (5-0) ATS(3-2)
Thursday October 10th
8:20pm
NFL Network, FOX
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
New England Patriots -17.5 (-105)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
There are a handful of really good and memorable Super Bowls throughout the history of the NFL and these teams have played in two of those, with the Giants pulling upsets and winning both. Week six kicks off in Foxborough as they meet again in what most likely is going to be far from a memorable or competitive contest with the Patriots listed as 17.5 point favorites against an injury-riddled New York Giant team. There is very little doubt who the winner of this match will be, so the only real intrigue is for those with some action on the game.
We’ll be the first to admit we questioned Daniel Jones and his ability to be a franchise NFL quarterback and if we could take that one back we probably would, even though it’s really early in his career. This is an almost unfair assignment for him as he has to go to New England against the league’s top rated defense on a short week without his top two running backs (one is MVP caliber), his top wideout and leading tight end. Welcome to the big leagues rookie. Where the heck are the Giants going to be able to generate any offense from?
The New England offense also enters the game with some question marks as their trio of wide receivers are all dinged up with Phillip Dorsett unlikely to play, and their running backs also a little nicked. We’ll just consider that karma in order to keep this from being an absolute bloodbath. The Giants have struggled generating much of a pass rush this year and as we’ve all learned, the only way to slow down Tom Brady is to get in his face and at his feet early and often. New York’s inability to do that will continue to expose their secondary and Brady should have little trouble picking apart their zone or more likely, man coverage. This is also a spot where there will be heavy doses of Sony Michel on the ground. Dalvin Cook and the Vikings were able to run through the Giants and you can be sure that Pats’ OC Josh McDaniels took note of that. Don’t be surprised if the Giants defense mails it in if the offense has repeated 3 and outs and or turnovers. They’ll most likely be anxious to head back home to enjoy their mini-bye and regroup getting Saquon Barkley and their offensive talent back for a winnable upcoming game against the Cardinals.
KEY STATS – The Patriots are allowing 6.8 points per game
– Under Bill Belichek the Patriots are 13-2 on TNF
– The Patriots are 9-2 ATS as double-digit favorites
– The total has stayed under in 9 of the last 11 Giants
games in prime-time
One other note before we get to our pick for this one, it looks like rain is likely to be in the forecast during this one. So with all of those factors, what is the best way to potentially wager on and play the Thursday night game? There are a few different thoughts for us and none of them involve going anywhere near this depleted NYG team. You could certainly lay the points and probably wind up ok, although that is a really big number. Knowing the Giants will struggle on offense it’s on the table to look at the game total staying under. There’s one big concern on that however, and that is what if New England puts 40+ points on the board? It’s not likely, yet it’s not impossible. If the Giants defense mails it in, or the New England defense scores a couple of touchdowns on their own they could wreck the game under. With all of that, we’re going to play the part of this game that we believe is the surest side of all and that is the New York Giants team total under. While it’s set at a low number of 12.5, remember the Patriots are only giving up 7 points a game, and one of the touchdowns they allowed was actually on a pick six when Tom Brady was on the sidelines during a blowout. (They put him back in). Can a rookie QB, on a short week in a hostile stadium put up more points than what the Pats’ are averaging allowed? Or in simpler terms will the Giants score 2 to 3 times in the course of this game minus 4 of their top weapons on offense? We’re gonna go ahead and vote no on that ballot.
BetCrushers Take: New York Giants Under – 12.5 Total
New England Patriots 31, New York Giants 6
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Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) ATS(2-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2) ATS(3-2)
Sunday October 13th
1:00pm
NFL Network, FOX
US Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
A pair of 3-2 teams coming off of pretty easy victories face off in a conference game that could have big playoff implications down the line. The Eagles and Vikings both enter this contest with very tenuous feelings of confidence based on what they have going on. The Eagles are still banged up and will be without some key pieces of their team yet again this Sunday, while the Vikings seem like they are one Kirk Cousins three interception game away from having a full out team melt down. Winning will solve, or at least mask these problems for at least another week with a W, while the other could find themselves mired in a bit of a downward spiral.
This is one of the more interesting games to handicap as there are several things to take into consideration. You have an offensive minded coach in Philadelphia going against an old school defensive head coach in Minnesota. Both teams have run the ball well in recent weeks and feature offensive playmakers that can be both consistent and explosive. We already mentioned the Eagles injuries as DeSean Jackson, Ronald Darby, Timmy Jernigan are all still expected to inactive. And then there is that whole Kirk Cousins factor… Here’s what we know about Cousins, other than the fact that he’s very much on the hot seat and has taken a ton of deserved criticism this year. He is substantially better playing at home than on the road, advantage Vikings. However, his performances also fluctuate more than any other QB in the league between playing good teams and bad teams (ie: playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams). Advantage Eagles.
So which Kirk Cousins are we going to see on Sunday, the one who carves up poor teams and looks fantastic, or the one who looks absolutely lost and overmatched against quality opponents? We can’t say for sure, however here is what we do know. The Philadelphia Eagles defense is not just bad, they’re really bad. Even at full strength they’re probably only a middle of the pack unit, and without Darby and the defensive line a little thin they fall towards the bottom really quickly. Don’t let last week’s beatdown against the Luke Falk lead Jets in Philly throw you off, any team in that situation was going to look that impressive. They’ve done well as usual against the run so Dalvin Cook will have his work cut out for him, but it’s the matchups on the outside that will give the Eagles trouble. Cousins and Thielen bonded last week and Thielen had a huge day against a poor secondary. You can plan for more of that and the difference this week is Stefon Diggs could make a big appearance here and hit some potential home runs that the Eagles have routinely been struck with.
For Philadelphia the game plan is going to be pretty standard and pretty simple and that is to let Carson Wentz chuck it around the field and hope that they have more points than their opponent when the clock runs out. There is a slight noticeable difference however and that is the emergence of Jordan Howard as the featured running back in this offense. Even though Miles Sanders picked things up a bit after a slow start, Howard is just a more consistent back and seems to fit the running portion of what this team needs a little more. Tight end Zach Ertz was quiet last week outside of a second half touchdown against the strength of the Jets defense as we expected, and this is a game where he should see a lot of action. Alshon Jeffery looked solid in his return so even without Jackson stretching the field there is still enough firepower to score some points against this Viking defense. Speaking of that defense, it’s pretty darn good. The defensive line has played well, the linebackers are experienced and solid, and the secondary is one of the better in the league. Not a lot of chinks in the armor overall. The thing with this matchup is, the Eagles offensive line can potentially neutralize or at least slow down the Viking linemen. Even against good defenses, Wentz seems to be able to find ways to get the ball out and get it in the end zone.
The statistics lead you to lean under in this game, especially with a defense like the Vikings and a quarterback like Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has not put up as many points on the road as they have at home over the past year and it will be loud in that stadium supporting the Minnesota defense. This one is a little bit of falling in love with the number versus the stats, but 44 is a relatively low total for teams that have offensive firepower, and one defense that is very suspect. To put it in perspective, the Bills and Titans total was less than a TD less than this one last week and those are two premier defenses and plodding offenses. There will be some punts in this game for certain and it won’t be an all out shootout. Here’s what we’re banking on: The Eagles will slow down Dalvin Cook putting the ball in Cousins’ hands through the passing game. Thielen and Diggs should own their matchups against the Eagles secondary allowing them to hit some big plays. The Eagles are good enough offensively that even against a strong Minnesota defense they should be able to keep things somewhat competitive. Both teams are in the top 10 in red zone TD efficiency so they’re able to punch it in for seven when they get close. All of this should add up to be enough to push this total to the over.
BetCrushers Take: Over 44 Total
Minnesota Vikings 26, Philadelphia Eagles 24
Teaser Bet
Dallas vs. New York Jets and Tennessee vs. Denver
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and
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Dallas Cowboys (3-2) (3-2 ATS) at New York Jets (0-4) (1-3 ATS)
Sunday October 13th
4:25pm
CBS
Metlife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Dallas Cowboys -7 (-115)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (2-3) (2-3 ATS) at Denver Broncos (1-4)(2-3 ATS)
Sunday October 13th
4:25pm
CBS
Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Denver Broncos -2 (-110)
Over/Under 39 (-110)
We’ll have to wait until the 4:00 late games Sunday for our week six teaser play looking at Dallas at NY and Tennessee at Denver to hit some key numbers. The Cowboys and Titans are both coming off of disappointing home losses and now take their show on the road to teams looking to gain some momentum against some embattled quarterbacks.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: DALLAS -1 and TENNESSEE +8
It’s only been two weeks since conversations about how dominant the Dallas Cowboys are and how they’re the favorite in the NFC to play in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to believe that it’s only been two weeks as it seems like a lifetime ago after their back to back losses. If you want our opinion, the truth is somewhere in the middle between the critics who said the Cowboys were a bad team that beat up on weak competition to start the season, and the Dallas believers who think they’re the team to beat in the conference. Week six takes them to New York to take on the winless Jets team who is excited to welcome back their starting quarterback Sam Darnold after his month long hiatus due to mono. There is no question the return of Darnold will provide a spark to the offense and the entire team as they’ll now believe they can compete and win. His return should also help LeVeon Bell as teams will now have to at least somewhat respect the passing game freeing him up for some running room in the box. When you look at how the Cowboys were gashed a week ago by Aaron Jones, you have to imagine that the Jets will be looking for Bell to run between the tackles a lot in this game. Whether or not the Cowboys can make adjustments and play tougher at the line of scrimmage will be a key in this game.
Dallas on offense got behind early last week which is not the way this team is built to win. It effectively took Ezekiel Elliott out of the game and put it on the shoulders of Dak Prescott and the passing game. This passing game is built on play action passing and being able to disguise when and how they throw the ball. The Cowboys need to establish Zeke early and often and make sure they don’t fall behind early again this week. Fortunately for Dallas the Jets prized defense free agent C.J. Mosley will miss yet another game which should mean a big day for Elliott up the middle. With eleven players on the field, one guy certainly doesn’t mean everything, but you can’t deny how much drastically different the Jets defense looked with Mosley in the lineup and since he’s been out. Against GB the Cowboys were beaten up front on the offensive line which is not something that generally happens with their group. The losses of Tyron Smith and Lael Collins proved too much for them to overcome. It’s still too early to see who will be available for Dallas in this game so whether or not they can have success is still a bit of a question mark. With the return of Michael Gallup at WR, Prescott should be able to find some matchups he likes on the outside with Gallup and Amari Cooper. The Jets have been good at safety and in the middle of the field so don’t expect much from Randall Cobb and tight end Jason Witten.
On the opposite side of the country the Tennessee Titans will try to get back on track going into the Mile High air in a tough matchup that either team could easily win. With all due respect to the Browns, the Titans have been the toughest team to figure out this season as they look unstoppable one week, and very average the next. That’s kind of what we’ve come to expect with the Titans over the years, yet this season seems to be even more noticeable. Tennessee has some things working in their favor however in this game. First is the fact that they’ve ironically played quite a bit better on the road than at home so we have to figure the road trip won’t be a deterrent to their potential success. Secondly, they strength of their team is in the trenches, which just so happens to also be the weakness of the Denver Broncos. The Titans should be giving Derrick Henry 25 carries in this game and their big guys should be able to wear down what’s been a pretty soft Denver defense. Look for some nice games from Tennessee tight ends Delanie Walker and Johnnu Smith in this one as well.
Give Denver a ton of credit for going into Los Angeles last week and taking it to the Chargers. They really outplayed the Chargers in all three phases of the game which allowed Vic Fangio to get his first victory and keep the ever so slight hope for the Broncos season alive for at least another week. Joe Flacco seems to be settling in and actually developing a good rapport with Cortland Sutton at the WR position. He’s still got veteran Emmanuel Sanders on the opposite side as well giving him options when they need to throw. That will be a tough assignment against the Titans though as their secondary is fast, athletic and not afraid to hit. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have both been running hard and have been fairly productive despite the Denver’s slow start. The Titans were stout for almost the entire game last week against the Bills on the defense before allowing Frank Gore and the Bills to impose their will on the final drive. A big key for the Broncos in this game is giving Flacco time to throw from the pocket. The matchup between the Denver offensive line and Tennessee’s front seven is the most critical decider in the game. The old cliche battle in the trenches and turnover margin will truly decide the outcome of this game.
Key Stats – The Jets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
The Broncos are 1-8 SU and 1-6 ATS going back to last
season
These two games seem like perfect teaser pairing as we’re getting through the key number of three for Dallas and past the touchdown for Tennessee. As of Wednesday evening the Cowboys are the most heavily bet public team at -7 which seems a little off. Yes it’s hard to imagine the Boys’ losing a third straight game to this Jets team, but this game could very well be tight. If Dallas doesn’t get out to a fast start, don’t be surprise if this is interesting in the fourth quarter and winds up as a field goal type game. The teaser points could be the difference here. The same thing goes for the contest out west. That game looks like it could be a grind it out type of affair that ends up in that 20-17 type mold, which we’ve seen from both teams this season. Tennessee should be able to keep that game within a touchdown score so the 8 points seems pretty strong. We actually like the Titans to win outright so if you like betting live dogs, this is a great opportunity to do so. Ultimately, we think we may need these 6 points in both games, but really like the matchups and adjusted spread totals here.
