Previous Week Plays – 0-4
Season Record – 4-5
WEEK 2 RECAP:
Ouch. Anytime you have an “oh-fer” there isn’t much else you can say. Our strong start in week one is a distant memory as we missed on all four of our published plays for week two. You can certainly make a “yeah but” case in hindsight of a lot of games, but we really hit some bad luck with all four of our plays. (Some more than others). At certain points during the day and evening it looked like we might be able to hit a 3-0-1 or at least 2-1-1, but the Football Gods were not with us on this Sunday.
Our first L was a tough pill to swallow as the Vikings had a crucial TD overturned on a call that everyone NFL media hack called ridiculous. Couple that with Kirk Cousins’ bonehead interception in the endzone and you can safely say that this one could have and should have been a winner. The Chicago Bears held a 13-3 lead in the fourth quarter with the best defense in the lead, but the altitude at Mile-High wore them down and the Broncos made just enough plays to get back to the game and spoil the cover. Side note – What’s up with the home team going for two in a game where you have all the momentum? Take that thing to overtime and give us a chance to cover. Our teaser was really frustrating as we played the Chiefs/Saints on the basis of having Drew Brees getting 8.5 was a sure thing. We’ll never know as he left the game early with a thumb injury and we had to watch what the Saints will be like with Teddy Bridgewater for the next six weeks. Adding insult to that injury, what a bogus missed call on a Jared Goff fumble that could have completely changed the outcome or at least cover of that game. And lastly, we needed a late TD in the Eagles/Falcons game to get a push on our over total of 51, but Zach Ertz came up half a yard shy of delivering us a potential draw. As was the case with the Saints game, we loved the over here, but obviously would not have gone in that direction if we had known Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson would be sitting that one out.
WEEK 3 PLAYS:
Week three doesn’t offer a bevy of marquee matchups so it’s a little bit of an unusual card top to bottom again. Baltimore traveling to Kansas City is the best game of the week and also a game that we’ve got our eyes on. In the week three edition of who’s going to stomp the Dolphins, Miami travels to Dallas and are initial underdogs of an NCAA-like 23 points. How will teams that are hit hard from injuries like Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Philadelphia respond and how will the oddsmakers adjust their lines? One thing we do know is the lines moved a lot from when they opened up until Friday. We’re going to try to heed our own advice and play the games that are “known” with a little less variability. Here’s our week three posted plays working backwards from the Monday Night Football game:
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins
vs. 
Chicago Bears (1-1) ATS (0-2) at Washington Redskins (0-2) ATS (1-1)
Monday September 23rd
8:15pm
ESPN
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Chicago Bears -4 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The NFL is not doing itself too many favors with some of the early prime-time games they’re featuring and this one falls into that category as well. It’s good that they’re giving some teams who normally don’t get much run a shot at the spotlight and we can’t have the Chiefs and Rams in every night cap. With that, the Monday night game isn’t exactly a ratings draw. Two teams that have struggled for the most part take the field looking to get some momentum and get their seasons going in the right direction.
If you look strictly at the numbers you would have to give Washington a really solid chance to cover this game and possibly even pull off a bit of an upset to win outright. They’re playing at home, their offense is ranked in the top 10 after 2 games, and they have dominated the Bears over the past decade. Throw in the fact that nearly 60% of the public money is on visitor and the facts may convince you a play on the Redskins makes a lot of sense. Peeling back the layers tells a vastly different story that we want to share. That top 10 offensive ranking is the epitome of garbage yards and statistics. Other than a couple of early long strikes against the Eagles to start the season this group has really struggled to move the ball except in garbage time. Derrius Guice is sadly on the shelf again meaning the Skins’ will turn to the legend they basically insulted in Adrian Peterson in hopes of getting the offense going. Peterson will fight as hard as anyone in the game and you have to admire his toughness, but it’s hard to picture him getting over on the vaunted Chicago defense. Although Terry McLaurin has provided a glimpse of hope for the receiving corp, quarterback Case Keenum has a lack of proven players to throw the ball too against a pass rush that will be after him early and often.
The Bears on offense have not been impressive in their first two games either, although they have to feel a little bit good in the fact that they seem to have solved their kicking woes. There is some mild panic, or outright huge concern depending on who you listen to in the Bear’s camp regarding quarterback Mitch Trubisky. He seems to have regressed from a promising season ago and this team has suddenly morphed into a defense only group. We had a feeling that Trubisky wasn’t as good as he seemed finishing out last year and thought a lot of the scoring was due to the absorbent amount of turnovers that were created. As good as the Bears defense is, they need a little help from their teammates on the other side of the ball. If there were ever a time for Trubisky to have a “get-right” game it’s against this Washington defense that has been sliced and shredded in both of their games this season. You don’t want to make too much out of one game, but if Trubisky can’t get it going in this one, you may hear a collective groan from this city of Chicago. What would really help him out is if their running back trio can get some big plays and keep the chains moving on the ground. For what it’s worth, we’re thinking that three’s a crowd in the backfield and none of these guys are able to get into any kind of rhythm. Again, this could be a great game to turn the tide for these running backs as only the Dolphins have allowed more yards on the ground than the Redskins.
Key Stats – N/A
There are a dozen trends and indicators for this game that all seem relatively irrelevant to anything going on. Washington has covered against the Bears in their previous 5 meetings which is slightly worrisome, however this is a different Redskins team. The trends tell you this will be very low-scoring, however the total at 41 is just a little low. If you’re interested in playing the total, look to play the Redskins under 17.5 points. This game could be a little ugly and it may take the Bears a while to get a solid lead. We’re not going to put the Bears in the elite category by any stretch, however we will fade the Redskins as a team that’s not great on offense, defense or special teams with a very limited home-field advantage. This line should be closer to -6 or -7 in our evaluation so we’ll go against some trends and play the square road favorite bet for a hopeful winner.
BetCrushers Take: Chicago Bears -4
Chicago 23, Washington 16
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns
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Los Angeles Rams (2-0) (2-0 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1) (1-1 ATS)
Sunday September 22nd
8:20pm
NBC
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Los Angeles Rams -3 (-120)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
A pair of Super Bowl hopefuls square off in a cross-country AFC/NFC contest in the prime time Sunday Night game. Each team is coming off of an important win against teams playing with backup quarterbacks. The Rams opened as field goal favorites and the line hasn’t moved much despite the fact that heavy early money has come in on them. The stars will be out in this one and while the winner will leave with some good momentum, the loser could leave pretty deflated, particularly if it is the home team.
The Rams have looked good so far this season on offense, if not quite as explosive as a year ago. Todd Gurley has made his presence felt when needed and Cooper Kupp has come roaring back from his knee injury to lead their talented trio of receivers. Jared Goff has played just well enough to move the chains when needed and get points on the board. You’ve got to think that Sean McVay would like to find some more of the explosive plays they had in 2018, particularly getting the ball down the field to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The biggest reason for the Rams decrease in chunk plays seems to be due to very average play by the offensive line. Goff has felt pressure at times and needed to check down to the tight ends and Kupp more than they’d like. If you caught last weeks Browns game, Myles Garrett has to be salivating at a chance to attack this line. Garrett has been absolutely dominant through two games and is on a mission to establish himself as a defensive MVP candidate. The Browns secondary has played ok thus far, and are clearly reliant on a good pass rush.
Offensively, minus a highlight 89-yard touchdown from Odell Beckham, Jr., the Browns haven’t been able to consistently keep drives going. On Monday night their young tight end David Njoku broke his wrist which could slow them down even more. With his athleticism out of the lineup in the middle the Rams can focus more closely on OBJ. Even more than the Rams, the Browns have really struggled on the offensive line. When you look at their talent at the skill positions you’d assume the Browns would be able to score at will. Their inability to get the running game and Nick Chubb going have slowed down the progress of Baker Mayfield as he looks to build that rapport with his receivers. Much like Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler, Jr. should and most likely will have a big impact on this game. (It’s pretty rare that Donald doesn’t have a big impact). Look for the Browns to put an emphasis on getting Chubb and the running game going in the first quarter to slow down the Rams pass rush.
The final piece to this game could be the intangibles of coaching, experience, and special teams. Freddie Kitchens looks a little unsure on the sidelines so the Rams should have the advantage as well as a few extra hours of prep time for this one. Los Angeles played in the Super Bowl a year ago and should be pretty comfortable in the spotlight. Cleveland should be ok there too coming off their Monday night win. The Rams continue to have some of the best special teams in the league which generally gives them at least a slight advantage every week.
Key Stats – The total has stayed under in the Browns previous 10 prime time games
This has the makings of a pretty competitive Sunday Night game and will be a good test to see if the Browns have truly arrived on the scene. There is certainly a lot of potential firepower on display for this one, but there is also some big time defensive players as well. The Rams have a tough trip across the county and will be eager to show they can rebound in prime time. Laying the points with LA is an option but the public money is pouring in on the Rams which is enough for us to stay away on that bet. We’re instead going to overcome the fear of betting an under with so much sizzle in the game.
BetCrushers Take: Under 49
Los Angeles Rams 24, Cleveland Browns 20
Teaser Bet
Baltimore vs. Kansas City and Oakland vs. Minnesota
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (2-0) (1-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) (2-0 ATS)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-110)
Over/Under 55 (-110)
Oakland Raiders (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (1-1 ATS)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Minnesota Vikings -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
There are a few different appealing options for teasers in week three but we’ve decided to go with the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs with a 6 point teaser. Both teams are at home and should be able to pull out victories.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY pick and MINNESOTA -2.5
What can you possibly say about the Kansas City Chiefs offense through the first two games of the season? We were really in the camp that Tyreek Hill was necessary for this team to have the best offense in the league… Boy were we wrong. It doesn’t seem to matter who the Chiefs march out there with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid will air it out and they’ll score a lot of points. They’ll face their biggest challenge to date as they welcome red-hot Baltimore to Arrowhead in the best game of the weekend. The Ravens have played pretty good defense as you’d expect in their first two contests, but the Dolphins certainly don’t count and the Cardinals are still a little ways away from being a legitimate offense. There really doesn’t seem to be any stopping this Chiefs offense so let’s assume they’re going to put points up. The question in this one is whether or not the Ravens who have looked pretty darn good themselves can keep pace? The Chiefs have defended the run fairly well so at some point Lamar Jackson will have to work his tight ends and exciting rookie Marquise Brown if the Ravens are going to win this game. He very well may be able to make that happen, but it really just shouldn’t matter. The Chiefs should be able to do enough at home to come away with a win. This one could be close so it may take near the 60 minutes for KC to put it away, but they will put it away.
For the second leg of the teaser we’re looking for the Vikings to rebound after a tough loss to Green Bay. Despite the loss, and continued disappointing play from quarterback Kirk Cousins, this team is really good. And the key to this one is the game is in Minnesota against a team that probably won’t be in the playoffs. Why is that so important? Simply said, Kirk Cousins plays very good football against teams that are not that great, particularly at home. The rest of this Vikings group is very good, with Cousins playing decent football they’ll be able to handle a feisty Raider team. Derek Carr has gotten off to a good start at home and Josh Jacobs looks like he could be a star in the league. The Raiders are a much different team away from the crazy black hole however. Minnesota should ultimately be able to outclass the Raiders on both sides of the ball and come away with the home win.
Key Stats – Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
This teaser gets two very good teams playing at home through the key number of three.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Kansas City pick and Minnesota -2.5
Kansas City 32, Baltimore 27 and Minnesota 26, Oakland 17
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
at 
Detroit Lions (1-0-1) (1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) (0-2 ATS)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
FOX
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The Lions enter week three coming off of big victory while the Eagles returned to Philadelphia putting a tough effort forth before losing a heartbreaker to the Falcons. If you cancel out the fourth quarter against Arizona, the Lions have been playing as good of football as anyone in the league not named the Chiefs or Ravens. The Eagles still have big aspirations for this season despite some big early season injuries that hampered their game in Atlanta.
In our preseason preview we wrote that the Detroit Lions were a team that wouldn’t make the playoffs due to playing in the NFC North, however would be a competitive team that was a tough out for anyone on Sundays. This game has all the makings of that exact scenario. The injury big has hit the Eagles pretty hard after just two weeks in the season which is going to be a factor in this game. The Lions as a result have some clear advantages in this game. Against the Chargers Kerryon Johnson was finally able to get some things going both rushing and receiving including a big play touchdown. In 2018 one of the Eagles biggest strengths was their deep defensive line. The departures of Michael Bennett and Chris Long weakened that a bit, and now injuries to Timmy Jernigan and newcomer Malik Jackson really have them lacking the depth, experience and talent they’ve been used to. This should help Johnson and the running game moving to at least keep Detroit balanced. Don’t anticipate a lot of running yards, but just enough carries to keep the pass rush of the Eagles honest. When the Lions do throw the ball, they could find some good success as the troubles of the Philly secondary have been well documented. The Lions have both threats down the field and over the middle that will pose problems for the Eagle defensive backs. If you haven’t been paying attention Kenny Golladay is lining himself up for a Pro Bowl season.
For the Eagles, this was supposed to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, which we got a sneak preview of in the second half of their week one tilt with the Redskins. Fireworks were expected in a shootout last week with the Falcons but never materialized as their top two receivers Alshon Jeffery and deepthreat DeSean Jackson sat most of the game out with injuries. Jackson is already been ruled out and Jeffery looks like an “iffy” game-time decision at best. Next men up for the Iggles are rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside and special teamer Mack Hollins to line up across from disappointing Nelson Agholor. Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs are two of the better DBs in the league that people don’t hear much about. The Eagles will find ways to move the ball with target machine Zach Ertz and their running backs, but this Lions defense should be able to keep them in the game based on the limited weapons Carson Wentz has to work with. One other note, the Eagles offensive line has really not performed as well as they were expected to so keep an eye on that for the rest of the season.
Key Trends:
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last ten matchups versus the NFC East.
The Eagles have not covered ATS in a September game since 2017.
The BetCrushers circled this game when the early lines came out and grabbed it with the Lions getting the key touchdown number of seven anticipating a move. Sure enough this spread moved quickly to +6 and then +5 with news of Philadelphia injuries to key contributors. Even if you aren’t able to grab this at +7, we’re still confident playing this one at +5 is a solid play. These teams have played close games in previous seasons and we’ll expect this one to come down to a late score. The Eagles should find a way to win this one at home, while the Lions keep it close.
