Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 31-31-1
WEEK 15 RECAP:
We finally didn’t follow up a stellar weekend with a bust, although 2-2 is nothing that we want to brag about either. In sports betting the bad beats and fortunate breaks tend to even out over the long haul of an NFL season, but man it sure seems like we’ve been on the end of the poor luck a lot more often than the fortunate karma. While we had one embarrassing loss that we have no one to blame but ourselves, our other loss poured some more fuel on our escalating hatred toward NFL officiating in 2019.
Our first wager was on the under on the Bengals team total of 14.5 against the stingy New England defense. Cincinnati got off to a fast start scoring a touchdown on their opening drive which led us to some early angst and sweat. The Patriots kicked things into gear after the opening drive limiting the Bengals to only two field goals the rest of the game, picking off Andy Dalton twice along the way which got us the early cover. We also had a two team teaser with the Seahawks and the Raiders with both teams basically just needing to win. Seattle did their part, however the Raiders blew a 17-3 lead and could not close out the victory at the final game in Oakland. Our teaser was busted primarily because with the Raiders trying to run the clock out, the referees missed an obvious call and stopped the clock when Derek Carr slid, clearly in bounds. As a result it left the Jaguars an additional 40 seconds on the clock which allowed them just enough time to drive the field and win the game. Unfortunate and unfair, but the obvious chance you take betting on the NFL, particularly this season. Our other loss was a bad miss taking the Rams in a spot where 90% of the public money was on them going on the road against a desperate Dallas team. We tried to out-think the sharps and play the matchup that we liked, but in easy hindsight it was a clear handicapping mistake and we paid for it. We were able to get back a win with our second teaser which had the Bills getting over a touchdown and the Saints needing to only win by a field goal. The Bills won outright and the Saints annihilated the lifeless Colts leading to a nice prime time bounce back. Again 2-2 isn’t the worth thing the world. only when it should have been 3-1.
WEEK 16 PLAYS:
We spent all week trying to find things we liked in week 16 and this is honestly the least appealing weekend of NFL plays we’ve seen all season. Even the sharp bettors seem somewhat split on several of the games, which is a clear sign to play this weekend with serious caution. There are about seven to eight potential wagers that we found as possibilities, but settled on just two official plays as we’ll be watching more of this weekend as casual fans than bettors.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) ATS(5-9) at Miami Dolphins (3-11) ATS(7-7)
Sunday December 22nd
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
In what is a toss up with the New York Giants and Washington Redskins for worst game of the weekend and possibly season, the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Miami Dolphins in the Sunshine State. Good luck to the CBS cameramen who will be working hard to find some angles during the game that make it look as though there are more than 2,000 fans in attendance. In fairness to these teams, they each have been playing better football of late and likely view each other as an opponent that they can beat.
The Bengals actually didn’t play all that terribly on offense last week considering they were facing the tough New England Patriot defense and actually scored points on their first two drives. The most encouraging part of the Bengals recent improved play has to be the tough and productive running of Joe Mixon who has exploded over the past five weeks after being bottled up for the first half of the season. Mixon should be licking his chops at a chance to run on this Miami defense that has given up big yards on the ground all season long. Head coach Zac Taylor simplified the running game allowing Mixon to make one cut and hit the hole which has made a big difference in finding space and getting to the second level. The return of Cordy Glenn at left tackle seems to have settled things a bit for what has been a bad offensive line all season. Glenn may not be an All-Pro, but simply having a solid left tackle to anchor the line can really help a unit that has struggled. In addition to helping Mixon, quarterback Andy Dalton has to feel a little safer in the pocket with Glenn watching his blind side and giving him a little extra time to survey the field. The Bengals will deploy some three wide receiver sets against the thin and inexperienced Miami secondary and Dalton should be able to find Tyler Boyd and his position mates over the middle of the field. Coming back from injury, this could be another opportunity for speedster John Ross to find some big plays both down the field and in the wide receiver screen game as well. With the exception of A.J. Green not on the field, we could get a glimpse at what we thought this offense might be to start the season in this favorable matchup.
Throughout his career Ryan Fitzpatrick has been known as a gritty competitor who gives it his all, but if you haven’t been watching what this guy is doing this year you’re missing out, and that is not a joke. Fitzpatrick has pretty much single-handedly guided this team all season with next to no help on either side of the ball. He’ll look to do that again against one of his former teams hoping to lead Miami to an unexpected 4th win of the season. There is one playmaker that he’s helped elevate and get paid and that’s wide receiver Davante Parker who has played like a Pro Bowler the last month of the season. Parker will have plenty of opportunities versus the Bengals back seven to make plays and he’ll need to do that to help get Miami a win. For the Fitz-Parker connection to have a chance the Dolphins will need to figure out how to hold up against the pressure of Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins on the Bengals defensive line. While Atkins got the Pro Bowl nod, it’s Dunlap that has been consistently getting pressure on opposing QBs and will look to get after Fitzpatrick. Once again the Dolphins will lean on Patrick Laird at running back to establish anything on the ground. Normally that wouldn’t sound like a great thing, except Laird has played as well as anyone in the Dolphin backfield this season and has a favorable matchup against the Bengals. A sneaky player to watch who’s made a few plays recently for the Miami offense is their young tight end Mike Gesicki as he could be a factor in the red zone.
KEY STATS: – The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 Dolphins
games
Throughout his career Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a gritty player, yet tJust seven days ago we were banking on the Bengals not being able to put up enough points in a game and we managed to cash in on that bet. This week we’re reversing course as we are looking for somewhat of a shootout in a game where the total rests under a key number of 47 at 46. Although their could be some rain, the weather overall looks like it will be fine in south Florida in a game where neither team is facing any pressure at this point in the season. We know Ryan Fitzpatrick will be playing loose and we expect Andy Dalton to do the same. The Dolphins have only given up less than 30 points in a game 4 times this season. Read that again… With Joe Mixon running well, the Bengals should do just fine getting points on the board both running and passing. The Dolphins meanwhile have put up over 20 points in each of their last five games and should be able to continue that trend at home against Cincinnati. Simple math tells us that 50+ is a very probable total between these two teams as each offense will play with some confidence. We’re going over with these two bad teams.
BetCrushers Take: Over 46 Total
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Miami Dolphins 24
Teaser Bet
Buffalo at New England and Kansas City vs. Chicago
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (10-4) ATS(9-4-1) at New England Patriots (11-3) ATS(8-6)
Saturday December 21st
4:30pm
NFL Network
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 37 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) (9-5 ATS) at Chicago Bears (7-7)(4-10ATS)
Sunday December 22nd
8:20pm
NBC
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
A Saturday afternoon football game and a Sunday Night Football contest are paired together for us as we’re teasing the two road teams with six extra points. The Buffalo Bills are hoping to show the New England Patriots the AFC East isn’t automatically their division anymore, and the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to stay hot in what will be a cold game in Chicago against the Bears.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: BUFFALO +12.5 and KANSAS CITY Pick
Coming off of a playoff clinching win that is just their second postseason birth in the past two decades against the Steelers the Bills are confident and ready to face their kryptonite in the New England Patriots. The Bills have are a ridiculous 2-16 in their last 18 games in Foxboro, but this team has something those previous squads didn’t in terms of confidence and a belief that they actually can win. Whether or not they do will most likely fall to how many points their offense is able to put up against the Pats’ defense which is still allowing less than 13 points per game on the season. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was knocked out of the game on a running play when these teams played in September as the Patriots looked to limit the damage he could do on the ground, instead daring him to throw. That will likely be the plan again for NE so Allen is going to need to find some receivers in the passing game. Stephon Gilmore will likely be shadowing Bills WR John Brown for much of the game so don’t look for Brown to be a big factor moving the chains. That turns the attention to slot receiver Cole Beasley who actually could make some plays as New England’s slot cornerback Jonathan Jackson was ruled out of this game with an injury. Another player that will need to come up big is rookie tight end Dawson Knox as covering tight ends has been the one thing New England has not done that well defensively this season. The Bills offensive line has played solidly, if not spectacularly, and they’ll have their hands full against the front of the Patriots. Their number one goal will be to give running back Devin Singletary some running room as he seems to be the key in how well this team can stay ahead of the chains and stay in manageable third down situations. The Pats’ have been good at stopping the run all season, with the exception of Joe Mixon who ran through them just a week ago.
The NFL world seems to be waiting for New England to have that breakout 40 point offensive explosion that just has not happened yet. If it didn’t happen against the Bengals, it’s fair to wonder if this just absolutely is what this NE offense is? If anyone thinks it’ll happen this week against the Bills, they are taking a big time shot in the dark as their defense has been playing well all season and even better as of late. Buffalo’s familiarity with New England sets their defensive game plan up to get in Tom Brady’s face and try to knock him around, as they did earlier this season. For the first time since 2008 Brady wasn’t voted to the Pro Bowl and for the first time since his first two seasons in the league, he looks like he isn’t sure how to score points with this team. With the Bills focused on getting after Brady, there should be some opportunities in the running game for New England’s running back by committee to find some yards on the ground and Brady and company will likely be patient and take that. We’ll have to monitor Julian Edelman who has been a thorn in the Bills’ side throughout his career but is battling through multiple injuries. As we’ve seen numerous times this season offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has had to get creative to generate offense and with the Bills attacking style they may have a few tricks up their sleeve on Saturday. Another piece of this game that could be important is the special teams battle, something the Patriots won handily in the first matchup this season blocking a punt and having a big punt return. In what could be a low scoring and close game, some key plays in the kicking games could prove very helpful to whichever team can make them.
In the second part of the teaser the Chiefs and Bears will both be playing again in some cold weather in a primetime tilt on NBC. Mahomes navigated the snow like he’d been doing it his entire career as he shredded a Denver team that looked as though they’d never seen it before. Getting the ball to his main weapons Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is always a good idea and something he’ll of course be looking to do against the tough Chicago defense. What really makes this offensive explosive is when others get in on the action as the Bears will be keyed in on Hill and Kelce. Can Mecole Hardman or Sammy Watkins make some big plays when they have the opportunities? The rookie Hardman has been coming on of late, while Watkins has been quiet for much of the year since returning from an early season injury. The offensive line for the Chiefs has underperformed as they’ve battled through their own injuries and shuffling and they need to hold up against Khalil Mack and the Bears pass rushers. It’s never Andy Reid’s favorite thing to do, but he needs to try to run the ball in this game, both because you can get some yards against the Bears on the ground and also to keep them from pinning their ears back and getting after Mahomes. The Bears crowd should be fired up and if Chicago is going to steal this win away, they’ll need to create some turnovers to give their offense some short fields and to keep the fans and momentum on their side.
Don’t look now but Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky has strung together some pretty decent performances. Not sure if that’s a good or a bad thing if you’re a Bears fan at this point, but for the sake of this game it gives Chicago a chance to compete with the mighty KC offense. On the topic of some possibly smoke and mirror stats, the Chiefs have the number one scoring defense in the league since their bye week a month ago as they’ve been holding teams down and forcing turnovers of their own. The Bears will try to run David Montgomery at the Chiefs defense as they’re softer to attack that way than versus Frank Clark’s pass rush and that will be a huge key to who wins this game. Since DT Chris Jones has returned to the lineup it’s been a little tougher to run on KC so it will be interesting to see how committed the Bears will be if they don’t have early success. Allen Robinson has had a nice season at WR and Anthony Miller has really had some nice games recently so it should be fun to see how the Chiefs secondary manages to contain those two. The Bears obviously need them to make some plays knowing what the Chiefs have at their skill positions. Just as in the other part of our teaser, special teams could play a big factor here as well as field goals and field position will be pretty critical for each team. All in all, you have some opposite scenarios taking place as there’s a dynamic Chiefs offense versus a stout Bears defense, and a recently hot Chiefs defense against an improved Bears offense. Should make for a pretty good game.
KEY STATS – The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Chiefs are 8-1 Straight up in their last 9 road
games
When you look closely at these games, there can certainly be arguments made on what the potential outcomes could be. Overall, these spreads seem to be pretty close to where they should be and where these finals should finish. Because of the accurate spread lines, they are definitely appealing as a teaser bet. In the first leg, we’re getting a Bills team that is playing good defense against a slumping Patriots offense. In what should be a grind it out somewhat low scoring game, getting 12.5 points is a ton. A lot of media “experts” think this is a trendy spot for the Bills to pull off an upset, and while that could happen, it’s more feasible that New England will hold serve on their home field and come away with a one possession win. In the second half of the teaser we’re rolling with the hotter team in Kansas City who has covered the last 4 games ATS and needs this game compared to a Bears team that is bounced from playoff contention. Simply needing a win, it’s hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes won’t be able to find a way to beat Mitch Trubisky when things are all settled up. We’re getting good numbers with playoff teams, so even though they’re on the road this is a pretty strong pair to tease.
