Previous Week Plays – 4-0
Season Record – 29-29-1
WEEK 14 RECAP:
Most people love a good roller coaster ride for some entertainment, except in the case of sports betting. We’re ready to get off of this crazy ride we’ve been on, although it’s at least good when we’re on the upswing which was the case after week fourteen.
In the early window we only had the first leg of our teaser with San Francisco +8 in what ended up being one of those instant classic games with no shortage of excitement. As the late games started the LA Chargers got off to a scorching start which bode well for our over total and they ended up taking care of it by themselves against a depleted Jaguars defense. The Chiefs were in charge all game and with getting +9 in the second leg of our teaser that was really never in doubt to close it out. What was a little closer was the total under in the Chiefs/Pats which ultimately held as New England continued to struggle offensively and needed some trick plays to generate offense. Altogether it spelled cashing in on that under which had us heading into the Monday Night Football game exactly where we wanted to be at 3-0. We honestly liked the Giants on the moneyline with Eli Manning at the helm, but 9 points was just too much to pass up so we played it safe, because, well it was Eli Manning at the helm. The Giants really took it to an undermanned Eagles team and that cover was really never in doubt. It’s completely a hunch that Eli is going to play quarterback somewhere next year.
WEEK 15 PLAYS:
There are some really tricky spreads this weekend and only a lot of early line movement in a couple of contests. It seems like Vegas has set the spreads pretty accordingly based upon where the teams are at this point in the season, the Rams/Cowboys spread being the big exception with early movement. As a result we’re only playing one game against the spread as we’ve got a couple of teaser/parlays in place along with a team total under. We’re sticking to our formula and needing this to be another strong week so we can jump off that earlier mentioned rollercoaster.
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
New England Patriots (10-3) ATS(7-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-12) ATS(5-8)
Sunday December 15th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
New England Patriots -10 (-110)
Over/Under 40.5 (-105)
All of a sudden the Patriots find themselves in a pretty important game against the 1-11 Cincinnati Bengals of all teams as they look to find a way to get their offense going. There’s rarely a shortage of drama with the Pats and this week’s newest “spygate 2” just adds to the intrigue of this year’s team. Is New England that desperate to get an edge that they’d risk stealing signs from the lowly Bengals?
We laid out a pretty good description of the Patriots offense last week before their game with the Chiefs and it was mostly accurate with the exception of they still couldn’t get a lot going running the football. More than likely they’ll take another crack at that against a Bengals team that is about as bad as the Chiefs are at stopping opposing runners. We pointed out that Chiefs DT Chris Jones would be the number one factor to watch putting pressure on Tom Brady in the middle of the defense and sure enough he disrupted things quite a bit. The Bengals will look to do the same with Geno Atkins and it’s not impossible to think that Brady’s struggles could continue again. New England’s offensive line continues to play very average in front of Brady and the few talented players the Bengals have reside on the defensive line so he could be under pressure as he’s been. Fortunately for the Pats, the back seven for the Bengals is very vulnerable so this should finally be an opportunity for their wide receivers to create some separation and help with the quick passing game. Falling behind to KC caused NE to go into a more strict passing mode, but they’ll really be trying to get Sony Michel going and if they can he could see a heavy workload for the first time in quite a while. The thing that might help this offense get on track more than anything is the potential for some short fields if their defense can help create some turnovers.
Speaking of that, good for Andy Dalton coming back after his benching to guide his team to a much needed victory and earn some redemption. With John Ross back in the lineup, Dalton was able to move the offense and no one benefited more than running back Joe Mixon. After not finding any room to roam in the first half of the season Mixon has really played well the last month or so which has kept the Bengals offense on the field and getting points. There are two big problems for Cincy as they look to build on those recent performances in this matchup. First, it’s not easy to run against the New England defense so Mixon is going to have a long day if the team doesn’t have a creative offensive plan to get him in space. Secondly, Dalton still had turnover issues even in the win and we know this Patriots defense is very opportunistic when it comes to taking the ball away from their opponents. With Stephon Gilmore locking down Tyler Boyd, Dalton will either need to force it to his favorite target or look elsewhere and the disguises New England are running could really cause him some problems, leading to some of those short fields we mentioned. There is one massive discrepancy in this ballgame and that is the Bengals offensive line versus the New England front seven. Even though the Bengals O-line has played a little better in the second half of the season, they are still one of the weakest units in the league. We expect that Dalton will be under a lot of pressure and forced into some big mistakes that will determine the outcome of this game.
KEY STATS: – The total has gone under in 10 of the last 14 Patriots
games
– The Patriots are allowing 12.9 points per game
Who would have thought the narrative in this game would be what it is, rather than a ho-hum opportunity for the Patriots to stomp the Bengals? Based upon what we’ve seen with New England it’s tough to fathom laying 10 points on the road even if it is against the team with the worst record in the league. After all, the Pats are having trouble putting 10 points up offensively without resorting to trick plays and some smoke and mirrors. The more certain thing in this game is that New England’s defense is going to come to play, especially against Cincinnati’s offensive line where they have an enormous advantage. New England is allowing an average of 12.9 points per game and that includes playing against some top offenses like the Ravens and Chiefs. Paul Brown Stadium will be pretty empty on Sunday with the majority of the colors being red and blue so it’s hard to imagine the Bengals really getting up for this game after securing their win last week. Our initial thought was to take the under however the fear of New England putting 30+ up in an “eff you” effort to get right led us to go with the Cincinnati Bengals team total under of 14.5. Being over the two touchdown mark is key as that allows for a couple of scores, including a potential fluke or defensive score, or an end of the game let up score.
BetCrushers Take: Under 14.5 – Cincinnati Bengals Total
New England Patriots 23, Cincinnati Bengals 10
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (8-5) ATS(9-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7) ATS(7-6)
Monday December 15th
4:15pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Los Angeles Rams -1 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
If you pay attention to any of the NFL power rankings that are released each week you’ll find the Los Angeles Rams climbing on that list and the Dallas Cowboys plummeting. They’ll face off in the late window Sunday afternoon with each needing a win to keep their playoff hopes in sight.
Sean McVay seemed to finally understand the importance of feeding Todd Gurley and the Rams offense finally resembled, well the Rams offense. It had to help that their receiving corp was fully intact and even though Brandin Cooks hasn’t gotten things going yet, there seemed to be receivers running open for the first time in a while. For the Rams to continue their momentum they’ll want to plan to feature Gurley again against a Dallas defense that is struggling to stop the run, particularly without Leighton Vander Esch at linebacker. Remember when Aaron Jones and the Packers came in and just bullied the Dallas defense earlier in the season? It’s not that exotic of a gameplan needed to figure out how to attack the Cowboys. Tyler Higbee has been a key part of the Rams recent offensive resurgence and he could be a very viable option in the play action game if Gurley can get off to a quick start. Speaking of, LA got off to a fast start against the Seahawks and part of the reason Dallas is on their current losing streak is they’ve been falling behind early taking away the strength of their team with their running game and offensive line.
On the subject of the Dallas offensive line, that high priced and talented group is clearly better at run blocking than they are at pass blocking. The Cowboys need to keep this a game where they can focus on the run and not get into a pure dropback and pass situation. We all know that Aaron Donald is going to eat up some blocking so it’s up to the rest of the Rams front seven to slow down Ezekiel Elliott. As always, the number of carries that Zeke gets probably will tell the story of how well the Cowboys are playing. Moving over to quarterback, the MVP type start that Dak Prescott had to the season has fizzled down in recent weeks as the lack of scoring for the offense has been a glaring issue as Dallas simply can’t overcome mediocre defensive play. The plus for the Cowboys with a home game is Amari Cooper has been a true number one receiver versus his lack of a presence on the road. The negative is he’s going to be blanketed by Jalen Ramsey so he’ll have to really work to get himself open. Other than a couple of absolute collapses against the Buccaneers and Ravens, this Rams defense has played about as well as any defense in the league, particularly since the acquisition of Ramsey. If there were ever a time for OC Kellen Moore and head coach Jason Garrett to come up with a creative gameplan, this would absolute be it. For Dallas to win this game, their offense is going to have to win in a shootout as their defense has not shown signs of being able to stop their opponents.
KEY STATS – The Rams are 9-0 Straight up in their last 9 road games
against teams with a losing record
– The Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games versus
teams that are favored
We can’t ever recall so much money not coming in on the Dallas Cowboys as they’re always one of the most heavily backed public teams. Over 90% of the cash coming in is on the Rams which would make anyone wary of some funny business happening. The fact is that is not just public money it’s also sharp money as it has moved the line from opening at Rams +3 all the way to Rams -1. If the percentage of money on LA scares you away from betting this game, we completely understand, but we’re taking the bait here. Dallas is flat out not a great football time, especially defensively, and the Rams defense should be able to keep their offense in check. It’s not often that we’d be backing a team that’s getting so much of the cash so we’ll call this an anomaly. The public has to win sometimes, right?
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Rams -1
Los Angeles Rams 26, Dallas Cowboys 20
Teaser Bet
Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis vs. New Orleans
vs. 
and
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (9-4) ATS(8-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) ATS(9-4)
Sunday December 15th
8:20pm
NBC
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 36.5 (-105)
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) (6-5-2 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)(8-5 ATS)
Monday December 16th
8:15pm
ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
We’re looking to the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football game for a nice opportunity to tease a couple of teams with big playoff aspirations. The Buffalo Bills were flexed into Sunday night when they travel to Pittsburgh and take on the Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts are making their last stand traveling to the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: BUFFALO BILLS +7.5 and NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5
The Buffalo Bills find themselves on Sunday night for the first time in nearly ten years with a chance to sew up a playoff birth for just the second time in the last two decades. After a really nice offensive performance on Thanksgiving Day against the Cowboys, the Bills were unable to get much going against the Ravens despite having a chance to tie/win the game at the end last week. They’ll try again versus a Steelers defense that has been carrying the team all year and is really playing well in recent weeks. The Bills offense is predicated on the running game as they’ve been riding rookie Devin Singletary. It’s not easy to pound away at the Steelers with their defensive line and linebackers who are extremely physical and a deep units. Josh Allen is going to have to make plays and make them in the passing game, something he has struggled a bit with when he can’t also use his legs. The Bills are not a huge screen team, but they’ll need to use some screens and misdirection as they’ll be unlikely be able to line up and straight outphysical the Steelers. For both sides, and probably more so the Bills, not turning the ball over is going to be key. Expect a lot of punts in this game and for these offenses that’s not the worst thing in the world.
Duck Mania is in full force as the gritty play of Devlin Hodges has already won over the Black and Yellow faithful. Mike Tomlin is getting and deserves a lot of credit for having the Steelers in the playoff chase despite the obvious loss of QB Ben Roethlisberger but a slew of other injuries on the offense including James Conner and Juju-Smith Schuster. Good news for the Terrible Towels as both Smith-Schuster and Conner look as though they’ll return to action. which is good news against the fast and opportunistic Bills defense. Young Devlin Hodges is going to have his challenges against the Bills throwing the football as they’ve consistently shut down opposing quarterbacks and receivers. For Pittsburgh to win this game they’ll need to establish the run and much like the Bills, take care of the football. The Steelers offensive line is big and we know aggressive and it’ll be a big battle at the line of scrimmage against rookie Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips and the Bills edge rushers. A player to keep an eye is Diontae Johnson who really played well last week against Arizona and will likely draw Levi Wallace in pass coverage who has been the one weak link in the Bills secondary. Pittsburgh figures to try to muscle their way through the Bills defense rather around it which is the right plan in this game.
In the second game of the teaser the Colts have a tough trip to New Orleans where the Saints defense was just shredded by the 49ers in a two point loss. As much as they’ll want to put a better showing together, they’ll be doing it without a couple of key cogs on their defensive line as it looks like Sheldon Rankins will join Marcus Davenport on the inactive list leaving their D-line rotation a little thin. The Saints have been stout against the run all season but the Colts and Marlon Mack may be able to take advantage a bit of their weakened front. Jacoby Brissett has played pretty well on the road and he’ll need to be on his game in what promises to be a very loud Superdome. T.Y. Hilton looks like he’ll be 50-50 to play and he always has a big impact on how the Colts offense can perform. Without Hilton this team becomes much easier to defend and the field becomes less stretched. Frank Reich has done a great job putting his team in position to win all season, but at some point the injuries and absences on the offensive side of the ball are just too much to overcome which is what seems to be happening now. Reich’s team will be prepared and they’ll have a smart strategy for the game, they just may not have enough talent to pull it off.
Drew Brees was electric against the Niners putting up stats we used to see from him three and four years ago accounting for 6 total touchdowns. That was no small feat against a tough San Francisco defense and just proves that when the Saints need to they can still score with the best of them. The Colts defense has been good this season although they seem to often miss out making the crucial plays that determine wins and losses. That’s not the spot you want to be in when playing against Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Indy focuses their defense on stopping the run first so how they can hold up against Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be something we’ll need to watch. The bigger question is can Brees, Michael Thomas and company have the success through the air that they had last week and attack one on one opportunities when they have them? Jared Cook will likely miss the game which could be bigger than it might sound as he had really started to come on over the last month of the season and had a pair of TDs before leaving the game last week with a concussion. This seems to be the case every week as we know Michael Thomas is going to catch his 10 passes, but who else can step up at receiver for the Saints? It won’t be surprising for the Colts to keep this one somewhat close, it’s just hard to see them finding enough offensively or defensively to steal the road win in prime time.
KEY STATS – The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an
underdog
– The Colts are 2-5 Straight Up in their last 7 road games
– The Saints are 15-4 Straight Up in their last 19 home
games
If you’re playing the primetime games against the spreads you can make cases in both directions in terms of who’ll get the cover. These games do provide an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the extra six points and seem highly likely to cover their adjusted marks. The O/U in the Bills/Steelers is set at 36.5 and there’s a solid chance it won’t even get that high. Getting more than a touchdown with this Buffalo Bills defense against a third string quarterback seems like it should be as close to a slam dunk as you can get. It seems like either team could win, and whoever does get the W will do it by a field goal margin and certainly no more than a touchdown. With such a large spread in the Colts/Saints game it’s definitely a big risk to take the New Orleans against a well coached and hard playing Colts team. However, it’s tough to see the Saints losing again at home after the gut-wrencher to the Niners a week ago. If you do some digging you can find New Orleans -8.5 which gets you teased below the key number of 3 down to -2.5. A saints FG win, a Bills TD loss at worse? Winners in our book.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Buffalo +7.5 and New Orleans -2.5
Steelers 20, Bills 17 and Saints 27, Colts 21
Moneyline Parlay or Teaser Bet
Seattle vs. Carolina and Jacksonville vs. Oakland
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (10-3) ATS(7-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-8) ATS(6-7)
Sunday December 15th
1:00pm
FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Seattle Seahawks -6 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) (5-8 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)(6-7ATS)
Monday December 15th
4:05pm
CBS
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum – Oakland, CA
Oakland Raiders -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Seattle at Carolina and Jacksonville at Oakland aren’t the most notable pairing of week 15 games to delve into but there’s something here that makes wagering these really appealing. You can look back historically every single year and find a team or teams that have flat out mailed it in for the end of the season. Here we have the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams eliminated from the playoffs and playing very uninspiring and lifeless football down the stretch for their lame duck coaches.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: SEATTLE PICK and OAKLAND -.5
The offensive line of the Seahawks was absolutely overrun by the Rams last week making Russell Wilson look very mortal in a primetime game, something that almost never happens. As a result the Hawks’ fell behind and had to go into a dropback throwing game which is not their strong suit. Head coach Pete Carroll rarely makes mistakes two games in a row and you can figure to see an adjustment and improved play along the line against a Panthers team that has been getting ground up on defense. While Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in football, it’s Seattle’s Chris Carson who could be in store for a big day on Sunday as he’ll be shouldering the load with backup Rashad Penny on IR with an ACL injury he suffered in that defeat to the Rams. Carson is a hard runner and everything the Seahawks want to do is predicated on Carson’s ability to keep the chains moving and bring safeties down into the box. Since Ron Rivera was jettisoned out, it’s pretty apparent this Panthers team has very little fight left in it. Carson should wear down this defense and there may be a lot of players (not named Luke Keuchly) making business decisions when it comes to tackling him. If Carson has even mild success it should pave the way for a big day for Wilson throwing the ball as Carolina has been torched in their secondary both in the short passing game and with the deep ball. Wilson is still figuring out his corp of weapons but this should be a bounce back game for he and Tyler Lockett to get back on the same page as Lockett has pulled a disappearing act the last three weeks. Whether it’s Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon or anyone else, yards are to be had against this secondary and Wilson isn’t likely to struggle for a second game in a row.
When it comes to Carolina’s offense the big question mark is just who is Kyle Allen? Is he a quarterback they might want to build with or is he destined to bounce around the league as a backup? After a hot start, he has come back to reality with a pretty big thud that includes some very turnover prone appearances and not a lot of wins. No one is going to mistake this Seahawks defense with the Legion of Boom, but they have gone from a lower tier defense to one that can at least be counted on to not lose games for their team. The concern for Seattle as with any team playing Carolina is how are they going to slow down McCaffrey? Bobby Wagner is a likely future Hall of Famer at linebacker but he isn’t quick enough to keep up with CMC out of the backfield. Even though D.J. Moore has been playing really good football and producing Pro Bowl type numbers over the last six weeks this offense lives and dies with McCaffrey who has been at least contained, if not stopped, the past couple of weeks. It’s a pretty simple game plan for Seattle, keep McCaffrey’s big plays limited and hold him to around the 100 yard or so marker and cruise to a victory. It seems like the only way Carolina could find a way to win this is if McCaffrey can break off a few of those game changing 50 yard touchdowns and put the Hawks’ in an early deficit.
Switching games we take a look at the even more lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars flying across the country to play one last time in the magical Black Hole. Oakland fans don’t deserve this crap of having this team move but greed and money seem to fuel every decision the NFL makes these days. Back to the game, Gardner Minshew is finishing up the season and the mania that we saw early on has fizzled quite a bit as the team has struggled to score points or even be competitive. That’s clearly not all on Minshew who continues to fight hard and lead the team, it’s just pretty apparent that outside of Leonard Fournette and an overperforming D.J. Chark that this offense is sorely lacking in talent. Minshew has been under a lot of pressure and that bodes well for the Raiders edge rushing rookie tandem of Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell. Look for the Jags to try to hammer Fournette as much as they possibly can against what has been a very soft run defense for Oakland as they were shredded by a similar back in Derrick Henry last week. Head coach Jon Gruden was livid with his defense in that game and ended up cutting three veterans afterwards as he felt the overall effort was not up to where it needed to be. Expect a better effort from the defense this week and the easier matchup should help them play a little better as well.
Let’s not get it twisted here, the Oakland Raiders aren’t exactly playing high level and high energy football either. The Raiders offense actually made some nice plays a week ago, especially when you consider they were without their star rookie Josh Jacobs in the backfield. However, the offensive play was lost in the fact that the defense was shredded and Derek Carr made another crucial turnover, something that has really plagued him in the second half of the season. With Jacobs back in the lineup, Oakland should be able to move the ball pretty easily against what has become a Jaguar defense that flat out cannot stop the run. They were average at best early in the season at that, but between injuries and departures, and what surely appears like a lack of will, they are now getting overwhelmed. Jacobs is the type of runner that is both fast and physical so he will provide a lot of problems with this Jaguar defense playing less than inspired football for head coach Doug Marrone. The recipe for Derek Carr in this game is really simple. Do not turn the football over. If he were listening I’d repeat that for him as that’s really the only thing that would keep the Raiders from winning this game. With the home crowd being fired up it’s important Carr takes what the defense gives him and doesn’t try to do too much in the passing game. Run your way and dink and dunk your way to a victory in the final game in the Coliseum. Here’s the simplest recap ever: Oakland offensive line and Josh Jacobs manhandle weak Jaguars defense en route to a victory. Keep it simple D-Carr and everything will work out great this Sunday.
KEY STATS – The Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after
an ATS loss
– The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games
One of the biggest ways to gain an edge in sports betting is to fade teams that are eliminated and are thinking more about offseason vacations than winning games. That’s clearly what we have here as the Panthers fight has gone away along with their liked coach Ron Rivera. The Jaguars organization is in chaos and they have to travel across the country to play in the last game in Oakland where the Black Hole will be emotionally charged. We’re playing this game as a two-team Moneyline parlay but depending on the sportsbook you may have better odds as a 6 point teaser. We got the Moneyline at -113 versus -120 which is why we’re rolling a little differently than we usually do. It’s pretty feasible that the Seahawks and the Raiders could cover outright, but getting these games as straight winners is a no-brainer.
