Preview:
While the average NFL fan may have wanted to see Patrick Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl, true football fanatics have to be pretty excited to see the Chiefs paired up with the 49ers for Super Bowl LIV. Each team put on a dominant performance in the conference championships and the breakdown between the two representatives is evenly matched and intriguing, starting with their head coaches down to special teams.
The spread for this Super Bowl opened at Kansas City -1 as perhaps Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes gives them a slight edge over a very complete San Francisco team that relies more on their complimentary players than their own quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G threw a mere 8 passes against the Packers as Kyle Shanahan found an early formula that was working and decided not to try to fix what wasn’t broken. Against a more explosive KC offense, the Niners will likely need to adjust their gameplan offensively, while the Chiefs own defense will need to play one of their best games of the season to secure a win and football immortality. Coming off of a pretty exact 2-0 profitable winning breakdown of the Conference Championship games, we’re ready to find the best wagers for Super Bowl LIV.
Super Bowl LIV
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (13-3) ATS(11-6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) ATS(12-5-1)
Sunday February 2nd, 2020
6:30pm
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
It’s a little unfair to grade Jimmy Garoppolo based upon what the 49ers ask him to do as their quarterback being a running first team. That being said, Patrick Mahomes is a top three quarterback in the league, and many believe he may be the best.
Running Backs – San Francisco 49ers
The injury to Tevin Coleman could prove big as far as the Niners rotation of running backs go, but Raheem Mostert certainly proved he can carry the load if asked and Matt Breida is also explosive when given the opportunity. For KC, Damien Williams has played well since returning from injury, but overall San Francisco is a running team and gets the nod at this position.
Wide Receivers – Kansas City Chiefs
There is a lot to like with rookie Deebo Samuel and the veteran Emmanuel Sanders for San Francisco as their group would earn a strong grade. Kansas City is flat out stacked at WR though as in addition to speedster Tyreek Hill, they can create matchup problems with Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson.
Tight Ends – Even (No clear advantage)
Let the debate begin on this one as you could make the argument on who your TE of preference is between Travis Kelce and George Kittle. They’re the top two at their position currently and either can be a game-changer. If you want this matchup given to KC or San Fran, we won’t argue either way, it’s as close of a tie as you can have.
Offensive Line – San Francisco 49ers
These offensive lines are pretty darn close and there are quite a few experts that might give the advantage to Kansas City, especially with how they’ve played down the stretch. We’ve got The Niners graded as an “A” and the Chiefs as a “B+”.
Defensive Line – San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is going to win this against any opponent they face as they have the top unit with star-studded first round talent down the entire line. The Chiefs are a top five defensive line with Frank Clark and Chris Jones and the underrated Derrick Nnadi. The addition of Terrell Suggs has given them a boost in their rotation. Again, a really close matchup, but a slight nod to Nick Bosa and the 49ers.
Linebackers – San Francisco 49ers
Linebacking isn’t a huge strength for either team, however San Francisco tends to get some bigger plays out of their unit when needed. Despite the fact that neither team relies on this position group, the 49ers have proven that they’re superior compared to the Chiefs.
Defensive Backs – Even (No clear advantage)
In the first half of the season this would have leaned strongly towards the 49ers as the Chiefs secondary was routinely giving up big plays. As the season went on Tyrann Mathieu started playing at an All-Pro level and Breshad Breeland picked up his play at the corner position. Richard Sherman anchors the San Francisco secondary and makes this debate a really great discussion.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
There is nothing to be critical of with the special teams of the 49ers as Robbie Gould has been a pretty clutch field goal kicker most of his career. Kansas City has a top field goal kicker of their own in Harrison Butker and one of the top return games in the league making them the play in the special teams game.
Coaching – Even (No clear advantage)
Feel free to let the hate flow on this one no matter which side of the fence that you’re on. The fact of the matter is both of these head coaches and staffs are top notch. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh are two of the hottest coaches and names in the league, while Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are two of the most respected in the history of the game. We all know that Andy Reid is good with extra time to prepare, although his in-game clock management has never been stellar. You can expect some nice schemes and play-calling on both sidelines, which is one of the reasons these teams are playing in the Super Bowl.
2019 Offensive and Defensive Rankings
It’s not surprising the the 49ers are 2nd in overall defense, however it probably comes as a little bit of a shock to a lot of people that they are actually ranked higher in overall offense than the Chiefs. When you look at statistics like these it’s usually better to study the last month or six weeks leading up to the game and not the entire season. Both of these offenses have the ability to score points, this game could very well come down to which defense can make the key stops.
THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:
No one can really argue with the San Francisco 49ers game plan against the Green Bay Packers which was basically Raheem Mostert running the ball right down the throat of the defense for four quarters. The most curious question we’ll never know the answer to is, how much of that was because SF felt they could run their way to Miami, and how much of that was Kyle Shanahan making sure his quarterback didn’t do anything to put them in a bad position with turnovers? Based upon how well the Chiefs were able to contain the powerful Derrick Henry, and an injury to Tevin Coleman we’ll likely get an answer to that question on Super Bowl Sunday.
In this age of 24 hour psychological analyzing of everything in the world of sports, this week’s interesting question just might be, did the 49ers plan against GB do anything to effect the confidence of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo entering the Super Bowl? There’s really only one person who can answer that question definitively and we’re going to give Jimmy G the benefit of the doubt that his confidence will be in tact on the biggest sporting stage in the country. And it absolutely needs to be as he’ll be asked to do a lot more in this game than he was in the NFC Championship game. Garoppolo played well this season and was able to make game-changing plays in several contests including some shootouts against top tier opponents. (See the games against the Saints and Seahawks).
Moving past the brain of Garoppolo let’s focus on something that we know is a little more certain, and what will be the quietest key battle of this game. That is the offensive line of the 49ers tangling with the defensive line of the Chiefs. (We’ll also discuss the importance of this on the other side of the ball in just a bit). The San Francisco offensive line has been dominant over the last month of the season both in the running game and in pass protection. Their first objective will be to execute Kyle Shanahan’s zone running scheme in an effort to move the ball safely and own the time of possession against the Chiefs quick strike offense. The KC line should be in tact and the foursome of Frank Clark, Derrick Nnadi, a healthy Chris Jones, and newcomer Terrell Suggs will be counted on the get the Niners in third and long situations so they can use their pass rushing talents to make plays and get them off of the field. The San Francisco line is strong all the way across, however they’re better outside working in with their tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. Perhaps the most important cog of the four is Chris Jones who will be asked to dominate the interior of the defensive line to slow down the run and get pressure on Garoppolo when he drops back to throw.
Looking to the running game Raheem Mostert is coming off of the best day running the football that any 49er has had in the history of their organization. It’ll likely be his show again as initial reports are that Tevin Coleman’s injury is serious enough that he won’t be on the field splitting reps. Fortunately the Niners running backs are considered the most interchangeable in the league and Matt Breida should be able to spell Mostert when needed and will have fresh legs as he wasn’t much of a factor the the second half of the season due to some ball security concerns. It was mentioned on the broadcast that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s mantra is you earn the right to rush the passer after you stop the run first. After some early success from Derrick Henry, Spagnuolo disguised his safety tandem of Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorenson and often brought both into the box to slow down the running attack and force them to throw the ball. If the 49ers get off to a fast start running, look for the Chiefs to adapt again and try to force the game into the hands of Garoppolo.
We’ve rightly focused on the running game as that is where the 49ers want to win this ballgame, but as mentioned, there will need to be a solid aerial attack as well. We didn’t hear a lot from tight end George Kittle in the box score, however if you watched the replays, he was absolute force in the running game, which is why many believe he’s the most complete tight end in the league. Being targeted only once in the Championship game was an anomaly and he’ll have several passing plays designed to get him the ball, particularly in the play action game. If the Chiefs are forced to move Tyrann Mathieu up into the box, Kittle could have an MVP type game as he tends to shine in the brightest of stages. Another player that was largely absent without a target was wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. He isn’t the type of weapon he was in his prime, but the veteran could show up big as he’ll likely be drawing the Chiefs lesser corner Charvarious Ward. Rookie Deebo Samuel has played big and he’ll be locked up with the Chiefs top corner Breshad Breeland. It’s the Chiefs that have the myriad of weapons on offense, but don’t sleep on the 49ers skill players who have proven throughout the season they can make big plays when they’re called upon. The fact of the matter is, the 49ers are most successful when they don’t need to call on them to carry the load.
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
It’s always fun to break down the Kansas City offense and fittingly, this is the most intriguing breakdown of them this season against an aggressive San Francisco defense. After falling behind early in their playoff games, their offense flexed their muscles and proved why they’re considered to be the most explosive offense in the league.
As always when it comes to the Chiefs we have to start with Patrick Mahomes and his ability to completely own an opposing defense. If you weren’t paying close attention to their playoff matches, you may have missed that Mahomes routinely took things into his own hands and ran with the ball more than he did during the regular season. That adds an almost impossible dimension to the stopping this offense and you can expect to see him continuing that approach when it’s available. It’s not necessarily a gimme that he’ll have that same success against San Francisco as their fast and athletic front seven does as well as anyone in the league at keeping quarterbacks in the pocket and not allowing them to beat them with their speed and athleticism. Additionally, playing against Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice each this season who have a similar skill set to Mahomes has allowed them to game plan and practice against that type of offense. The biggest difference though is “forcing” Mahomes to throw the ball to his weapons is not what would be considered a win as it might be against Seattle and Arizona. Looking ahead, the biggest key for Mahomes in the Super Bowl could be getting off to a fast start so he’s not in obvious passing situations where the 49ers can shine with their pass rush.
On the San Francisco side of the ball we discussed the importance of their offensive line play and mentioned how we’d visit that topic on the Kansas City side. The Chiefs have a very good offensive line, however they have not faced a defensive line as deep and talented as the 49ers squad. They certainly are familiar with their former pass rusher Dee Ford and everyone knows about Nick Bosa, both of whom can be game-wreckers. What makes this unit a notch above any other in the league are the lesser known talents such as Arik Armstead, Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner. The collection of talent makes it very difficult to double-team players and you cannot take a play off against this physically strong group. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s defense is disciplined and feasts on sacks and turnovers. The most visible matchup that is also the overall most important will be Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher versus the previously mentioned Nick Bosa. Fisher is a quality left tackle, but whether or not he can control Bosa without help will be one of the most important things to watch early in the game.
Their isn’t much to discuss with the Chiefs running game as Damien Williams will lead the limited ground attack that Andy Reid puts out there, which likely won’t be much. Williams was a factor in the passing game however and with the Niners aggressive defense he should see a chunk of targets again. Andy Reid has surprisingly gone with just Williams as a feature back which goes a little against his normal approach of backs by committee. It’s possible he doesn’t trust rookie Darwin Thompson, and for some reason has buried LeSean McCoy on the depth chart to where he wasn’t even active in the AFC Championship. In typical Reid fashion, he’ll want to run just enough to keep the 49ers from pinning their ears back in complete and obvious passing situations.
It’s hard to fault Reid for wanting to throw the ball around the field when you have the weapons on the outside that they do. Let’s start first with their two Pro Bowlers, tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Titans decided they would focus their attention on Kelce, which is hard to argue, but they paid the price having to go man to man with the speedy weapons at receiver. We saw Tyreek Hill make some nice catches and Sammy Watkins putting up huge numbers including a bomb that helped put the game out of reach. Richard Sherman can quiet down one receiver on his side of the field, although we won’t know play-to-play who that receiver will be as the Chiefs like to move their receivers and formations around. Although it didn’t help a lot, the Packers did in fact try to move Davante Adams off of Sherman’s side. It won’t be shocking to see Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson lined up across from Sherman in an effort to get Hill lined up in the slot or opposite side as they will love the matchup against K’Wuan Williams or Ahkello Witherspoon. As was the case on the other side with George Kittle, Travis Kelce holds the key to the passing success of the Chiefs in this game. San Francisco free safety Jimmie Ward likely cannot lock horns with Kelce one on one and find success. The “base” defense for the 49ers is cover three which when all things are considered is probably the best overall way to defend this Chiefs team. At the risk of oversimplifying this, it really just comes down to how much of a pass rush San Francisco can get on Mahomes. If he has time to throw, he’ll be able to beat the cover three over the middle with ease. If not, they could struggle to move the ball..
KEY STATS: – The 49ers 6-1 ATS versus teams with a
winning record
– The 49ers are 6-2-1 in their last 9 games
overall
– The Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games
as a favorite
– The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Chiefs had the best record ATS in the
NFL in 2019
PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs – 52%
THE SKINNY:
As you’d expect in the final game of the season, there are two exceptional football teams left standing. As we were breaking down our tale of the tape it was instantly clear that these two teams are very evenly matched in a lot of ways. There aren’t too many games where turnovers aren’t a factor in determining the outcome, yet in this game they will almost certainly tell the story. In a game that is likely to be close throughout, it could be a mistake one way or the other that turns the tide. Both teams have the ability to create takeaways, but who do you trust to take care of the ball better in a big game situation? Additionally, which team would have the ability to overcome a potential turnover better? We’ve got to give those votes to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. How about when we look at some of the intangibles and trends that have been going on with these teams? The Chiefs have started painfully slow in the playoffs falling behind early before crawling back and flexing their offensive muscles. Should that happen against this San Francisco defense, it’s a lot less likely that they’d be able to just turn it on. In fact, the team that can get out to the early lead in this Super Bowl is going to have a big advantage in how the second half of this game plays out.
BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 27
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
We’ll have locked in official plays including prop bets before kickoff of Super Bowl LIV. This is a tough game to handicap as the matchups are pretty even and the public money is likely to be pretty even as well. When you check out the trends, there is almost nothing there to show that one team has an advantage over the other. We do have some early tickets in though that we’re posting if you want to get some bets in before any line movements in either direction. We’ll also let you know what side the sharp money is coming in on, and whether or not that will impact our future wagers. Check back and follow us on Twitter @TheBetCrushers for all of our posted plays.
