Preview:
No matter what you’ve thought about the NFL playoffs up to this point, you certainly can’t claim that they’ve been lacking excitement. We talked about how we didn’t really like a lot during the Divisional round, and we’re pretty happy that we had the discipline to only make one official wager as there was a lot of wild play from start to finish again this weekend.
The Chiefs are the only team entering the final four that were expected to be in this position at the start of the season, at least by the so-called experts. Our early season predictions were high on the 49ers, but also low on the Packers so we’ll call it a little bit of give and take. Perhaps the biggest surprise is Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans who pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory putting a surprising stomping on the number one seed Baltimore Ravens.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (9-7) ATS(10-7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) ATS(11-5-1)
Sunday January 19th
3:05pm
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Left for dead six weeks into the season the Tennessee Titans now find themselves one game away from the Super Bowl and headed to their third straight road playoff game. Having defeated the top best QB ever and the top QB of 2019, can they take out last years MVP Patrick Mahomes? To put it mildly the Chiefs started out slowly against the Texans before going on a massive sprint that saw them score touchdowns on seven straight possessions. The Titans have been getting big points in the playoffs so far and are catching more than a touchdown at 7.5 so you have to like their chances to cover again, even against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. These teams and coaches have different philosophies especially on the offensive end so it will be interesting to see which team can adapt and contain the other’s best strengths.
Tale of the Tape – Who has the advantage?
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
How crazy is it that you had to give this an actual pause and thought based on how well Ryan Tannehill has played this season? Ultimately, this is no-brainer as Mahomes reminded everyone against the Texans.
Running Backs – Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry wins this against anyone over the past six weeks so the Titans will easily get the nod here. The Chiefs are just fine at running back with Damien Williams and a couple of capable backups including veteran LeSean McCoy, but when it comes down to this Tennessee’s identity is Derrick Henry and their running game.
Wide Receivers – Kansas City Chiefs
No knock on A.J. Brown and the Titans wide receivers who are pretty solid, but Tyreek Hill leads a group that is loaded with speed and talent. It’s always nice when you can run 4.3 forty yard dashers off of your bench like they can in KC.
Tight Ends – Kansas City Chiefs
You may have witnessed that amazing one handed snag in the end zone by Titans TE Johnnu Smith, or his jet sweep a couple of weeks ago which were both majorly impressive. That being said, we all know that Travis Kelce is one of just a few true difference makers at the position as evidenced by his 7 catch first half against the Texans that included three straight touchdowns in the third quarter.
Offensive Line – Tennessee Titans
At first typing we had this listed as an even matchup but decided to give the index card sized advantage to the Titans based on recent play. Their ability to run the ball has helped them in pass protection and gun to the head if we had to choose between the two teams, we’ll take them over KC by a slight margin.
Defensive Line – Kansas City Chiefs
Frank Clark headlines this group and has lived up to his hefty contract in free agency and Derrick Nnadi has been an underrated player. Chris Jones is one of the top defensive tackles in the league and assuming he can take the field again after missing last week he gives the Chiefs a clear edge on the line. We aren’t sleeping on Jurrell Casey for the Titans, but overall we have to give this to KC.
Linebackers – Tennessee Titans
This is not a great unit for either team when you look at the rosters but we’ll lean to Tennessee as they have a little more speed and depth at the position. It’s unlikely that either of these units could win the game for their respective teams, however it is possible that they could lose it if they don’t play well.
Defensive Backs – EVEN (No clear advantage)
We went back and forth and eventually gave up trying to determine which team has the advantage in the defensive secondary and settled on calling it a tie. With the loss of Juan Thornhill to IR for the Chiefs it pushes Daniel Sorenson back into a starting role, which he played brilliantly in against the Texans. Tyrann Mathieu can be an “x” factor for sure but it’s still tough to trust Charvarius Ward on the corner even though he’s stepped up recently. The Titans are strong on paper but haven’t played up to their billing for most of the season. Depth could be an issue for them in this game.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
All due respect to Titans All-Pro punter Brett Kern, who is one of the best in the business but the Chiefs win this overall as Harrison Butker has a clear advantage over Greg Jospeh in the place-kicking game and Mecole Hardman is the best returner in the league in our opinion.
THE TENNESSEE TITANS ON OFFENSE:
Looking at the Titans on offense you could pretty much copy/paste their breakdown from their first two playoff games and it would fully make sense. They’ve largely followed that path in the running game, but the wild part is they have gone a little off script in terms of the passing game which has been mostly non-existent. It’s tough to say that that will need to change against the Chiefs for them to continue their upset streak, yet we’ll go on record stating that this passing game is going to need to come to life for a victory.
The Tennessee offensive line has been bullying their opponents during Derrick Henry’s recent streak of dominance. It’s true that Henry has had a ridiculous 266 yards after contact in his 3 game streak of over 180+, but it’s his line that has been able to push ahead allowing him to get his legs started resulting in consistent runs and big chunk runs. No shock to anyone, Derrick Henry holds the first key to taking down the Chiefs. He needs to keep the time of possession in Tennessee’s favor and wear down their defense. Early in the season Kansas City was really having trouble stopping the run and had gotten gashed by some of the better running teams in the league. They’ve done much better in the second half of the season and have their biggest challenge since they played Baltimore to start the year. We’ll have to anxiously await the final verdict on the availability of Chiefs DT Chris Jones who is a true game-time decision. While Jones is best known for his pass rushing stats, he’s been really good in run defense as well. Without him in the rotation it could spell trouble for a defensive line that is built more toward rushing the passer. And it is really important that the Chiefs front seven can get Henry to the ground as their secondary is not necessarily the best in terms of run support.
All of the above discussion about the Titans running game could be a moot point if the Chiefs are able to get out to an early lead, which is certainly a possibility. If that happens, for the first time in a few weeks, Ryan Tannehill will be called upon to make throws in the passing game. After a couple of tough matchups for their rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown, he will have an opportunity to get back on the tear that he was on for a good chunk of the season. Andy Reid will want to stay in a safe cover 2 type of shell if possible, however Henry’s early potential success could take them out of that look opening things up not only for Brown, but also Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe and possible even Adam Humphries as he could return for the first time from a 5 week injury absence. Tyrann Mathieu has carried the secondary of KC all season and between Henry and the Titan passing game will need to play a very disciplined, smart and physical game.
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
We’re still catching our breath from the 2nd quarter explosion that the KC offense delivered against the Texans a week ago that included those seven straight possessions getting the ball into the end zone. Despite some really nice performances, it really seemed like the first time where the Chiefs were clicking on all cylinders running, and more importantly spreading the ball around in the pass game with ease. The Chiefs offensive line played their best game, perhaps all season as Mahomes had the time he needed to survey the field and find his open receivers. Things will be a little tougher for Mahomes and that offensive line Sunday as Tennessee is better at putting pressure on opposing QBs than the Texans were so KC needs another good day from the big guys up front. A key matchup with by the Chiefs Mitchell Schwartz against Jefferey Simmons and Harold Landry III when they’re throwing. The Titans are not afraid to blitz and when they do it’ll be imperative that they get to Mahomes and force him to throw early. Something that isn’t really looked at closely is the fact that Chiefs running back Damien Williams has been a little up and down in his pass blocking. As much as they’ll want a good day running the football from Williams, how he picks up the blitz in pass blocking situations could be even more important.
It’s pretty clear to everyone that this Chiefs aerial attack runs best when it goes through tight end Travis Kelce as he absolutely smoked Houston last weekend. When this offense is at its best, Kelce is making plays and drawing double team coverage which was the case a week ago. When Mahomes has time to throw and Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman can get down field they are practically unstoppable. The Titans secondary which had underachieved for a good portion of the season has been playing really well lately helping their win streak by locking down some really good receivers and tight ends. The concern the Titans should have here is the lack of depth at the position when the Chiefs go to three-wide looks which they run a large percentage of the time. It simply becomes an issue of too many weapons to try to cover when Mahomes has time to throw. One other note that we mentioned last week that didn’t become a factor, but could this Sunday if the game is close: The Chiefs have a strong and now veteran kicker in Harrison Butker going against a still somewhat unknown Greg Joseph for the Titans. This could end up meaning nothing, unless this game comes down to the wire, in which case it could be huge.
KEY STATS: – The Chiefs have won their last 7 games by
an average of 17 points per game
– The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Titans have won 5 straight road games
PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs 54%
THE SKINNY:
Both of these teams are hot and have been playing great in wins and losses and also against the spread. The Chiefs are always tough in Arrowhead, while the Titans have been road warrior in the latter half of this season and the playoffs. Something has to give here though as one of these teams will have their Super Bowl dreams shattered. For as great as Andy Reid has been in his coaching career, he’s certainly not been the best “big game” coach we’ve ever seen losing often in the playoffs and in Championship games. The difference this year seems to be that his team is superior to many of his previous rosters and has some clear advantages in key positions. Don’t forget that despite giving up a ton of yards to Kansas City, the Titans actually beat them by a field goal at home earlier in the season. With an offense like the Chiefs there is always the possibility of a rout and 40-13 is certainly not out of the question. Right now though it just seems too tough to not take over a touchdown with this Mike Vrabel team that is playing so well on both sides of the ball and is almost like one of those March Madness teams that just has that final four type run in them. The run will probably come to an end on Sunday, but don’t count this team out, and definitely don’t count them out if you’re getting 7.5 points. Because of this we aren’t betting this directly against the spread, and giving a slot lean toward taking those points with the Titans.
BetCrushers Lean: Tennesee Titans +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs 29, Tennessee Titans 24
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (13-3) ATS(11-6) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3) ATS(10-6-1)
Saturday January 19th
6:40pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
The number 1 and 2 seeds collide when Aaron Rodgers heads to his old stomping grounds in Northern California to lead the Packers against the top-seeded 49ers. Both clubs won their Divisional matchups in pretty impressive fashion as neither team trailed during the games. The line opened at a solid -7 for the 49ers which almost seems a little disrespectful to Rodgers and the Packers, although once you break the game down, you can understand how the books arrived at this number. With the Super Bowl on the line, you know that both teams will be bringing maximum effort, so that’s one factor you can mostly eliminate in handicapping the game. Is San Francisco ready to take the leap already or will the veteran QB in Green Bay get another shot at a title?
Tale of the Tape – Who has the advantage?
Quarterback – Green Bay Packers
Jimmy Garappolo has played solidly all season and this is closer than you might think, but even on what is a mediocre season by his standards Aaron Rodgers gives the Packers a clear advantage at the most important position.
Running Backs – Even (No clear advantage)
You can make an argument either way on this one as Aaron Jones has been the most consistent performer all season and Jamaal Williams is a capable receiver and backup for GB, but San Francisco can play the hot hand with any of their three running backs and have been running the ball great the last few weeks.
Wide Receivers – San Francisco 49ers
Davante Adams of the Packers is clearly the best wide receiver playing in this game, however there is a large dropoff after him for the Packers. The 49ers may not have any Pro Bowl players on the outside but rookie Deebo Samuel has come on strong and veteran Emmanuel Sanders has played in big games before.
Tight Ends – San Francisco 49ers
A few years back this might have been an interesting debate but Jimmy Graham is not the matchup problem he was in New Orleans. George Kittle brings a toughness, leadership and talent to this team at the position.
Offensive Line – Even (No clear advantage)
This is another tough one as these offensive lines are pretty similar. They’re both anchored by veteran left tackles and have quality players across the board. Each line is a little better at run blocking and neither is a liability in the passing game.
Defensive Line – San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is going to win this against any opponent they face as they have the top unit with star-studded first round talent down the entire line. Green Bay’s line has played well, specifically in the second half of the season, but their pedigree is not close to their competitors in this game.
Linebackers – Green Bay Packers
It’s tough to say that the Niners linebackers aren’t elite with the return of Kwon Alexander, but because the Packers defensive strength technically rests with their outside linebackers Z’Darius Smith and Preston Smith they get the nod.
Defensive Backs – San Francisco 49ers
Another really close comparison as these units are pretty similar, and the Packer safeties are probably just a bit better than the Niners, but we’re going to give a very slight edge to the 49ers for the simple fact that they have future Hall of Famer Richard Sherman playing at a very high level.
Special Teams – Even (No clear advantage)
Not a lot to be worried about or excited about for these special teams as each is consistent and experienced if not spectacular.
THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:
The Green Bay offense looked really sharp for most of the game in the Divisional round as Aaron Rodgers was accurate and making key throws and the running game was solid. Things may look a little different against a mostly healthy San Francisco defense that looked really strong against a good Minnesota offense. We’ll come back to Rodgers and the passing game in a bit, let’s first dig into the running game and the offensive line play for GB. The Packers have one of the better offensive lines in the league anchored by their tackles David Bhaktieri and Bryan Bulaga and some glue in the middle with center Corey Linsley. The problem for them this week is instead of being an asset and advantage for their team, they’re going to be asked to play at an even higher level against the best defensive line in the league. Most teams in the league would love to have Dee Ford and Solomon Thomas on their D-lines, while SF has the luxury of bringing them in as rotational players. The Packers can’t take a breath or a play off or it could spell disaster whether running or throwing the football. Speaking of running, Aaron Jones is going to need to do a lot better than he did the first time these teams played when he was held to 38 yards on 13 carries. And that was with some injuries on the San Francisco side of the ball. Kwon Alexander returned a week ago at linebacker for the Niners and figures to play a bit more this week helping out the linebacking corp. To protect Aaron Rodgers against the pass rush, GB has to stay committed to Jones and the running game even if they don’t have a lot of initial success.
Throughout his illustrious career Aaron Rodgers has feasted against the blitz and pressure. 2019 however has seen Rodgers be the 4th worst starting QB in the league dealing with pressure in terms of completion percentage and converting first downs. That’s likely more to due with the lack of weapons in the passing game as guys like Geronimo Allison and Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow simply can’t be counted on to consistently get open and make plays. Additionally, without a ton of experience working with Rodgers, the chemistry and trust just doesn’t seem to be there. The best thing Green Bay can do Sunday is get Davante Adams to the left side of the formation and away from Richard Sherman. Sherman will stay on his left cornerback side and he’ll island off one of the Packers other receivers. If we’re Matt LaFleur we’re trying to get Adams matched up away from Sherman on Emmanuel Moseley or Akhello Witherspoon and trying to feed it to him on repeat. Adams also struggled in their first meeting with only 43 yards but he did manage to haul in a score and grab seven passes. If the Pack can get him freed up he can improve upon that number and will need to as it’s hard to see a lot of production out of the rest of that receiving corp. Someone that really needs to step up (people have been saying this for a couple of seasons now) is tight end Jimmy Graham. He made a couple of nice plays last week against the Seahawks, but if he can’t be a big contributor Sunday it’s going to be a problem. At the end of the day, this is the NFC Championship game and the biggest players need to make the biggest plays. Can Aaron Rodgers run for key first downs when it’s needed? Is there enough creativity in the offensive gameplan to get Rodgers out of the pocket and keep him protected from the fierce 49er pass rushers? You never want to count a future HOFer like Rodgers out of any game, but this is a really tough ask for him to go into SF and come away with a victory.
THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:
One of the things that makes this San Francisco offense so effective is the general lack of predictability that they display each week. While their overall philosophy is pretty consistent, the type of plays, and even players that they feature is mixed and matched each week keeping opposing defenses off-balance. It will be interesting to see what kind of approach Kyle Shanahan takes on the offensive side of the ball, especially having played Green Bay earlier in the season. Will their be any hesitation to let Jimmy Garoppolo sling it around in such a big game? With what we know about Shanahan he’ll certainly try to limit was his quarterback is asked to do if at all possible by establishing his running game. Last week it was Tevin Coleman who led the charge, and it could be him or Raheem Mostert who’s asked to take the lead against GB. The Packers stymied the injury-riddled backfield against the Seahawks, but will have a lot more trouble against this zone blocking scheme and the backs of SF. Last week we highlighted the importance of the Niners tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey and what they needed to do in containing the Vikings pass rushers. Fast forward to Sunday and they’ll again be key as Green Bay’s best opportunity on the defensive side of the ball is to get pressure on Garoppolo and force mistakes and turnovers. Preston Smith came up big last week and Z’Darius Smith has been playing at an elite level all season. When we check the box score, it will likely take 4+ sacks and at least a couple of turnovers for Green Bay to pull this upset. In terms of stopping the running game, the underrated Kenny Clark will certainly be called upon to take up some blockers and it’ll take strong games from the Packers interior linebackers B.J. Goodson and Blake Martinez running sideline to sideline so slow things down.
Throwing the football there is one matchup that really favors the 49ers and that is with tight end George Kittle. He’s a problem every week but will likely draw the young Darnell Savage in this ballgame. Savage has played very well overall, but the experience and physicality that Kittle brings could give him a lot of trouble. One the outside, the Packers cornerback tandem of Jaire Alexander and Kevin King should be able to hold their own against the Niners Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel if they have some safety help over the top. That of course will come back to whether or not they can stop the running game of San Fran. We’ll say it a second time because in this game it’s even more important than normal. Turnovers will be absolutely critical in determining whether or not Green Bay can pull the upset or are beaten soundly here.
KEY STATS: – The 49ers 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games
as a home favorite
– The Packers are 3-12-1 in their last 13 as
underdogs
– The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
versus the 49ers
PUBLIC MONEY: – Green Bay Packers 52%
THE SKINNY:
We’ll admit we didn’t think the Packers were going anywhere this season and they far surpassed our expectations, and most everyone’s outside of the state of Wisconsin. Can their magical season continue on the path to Miami with a Super Bowl appearance for first year head coach Matt LaFleur? In order for that to happen they need to play a darn near perfect game, and the 49ers need to do the opposite. This game wasn’t even a contest the last time they played and it’s hard to make a case for why this would be any different other than the fact that everyone is playing to get to the Super Bowl and sometimes the ball can bounce a little funny. There is one variable that seems ridiculous that we do have to touch one. How badly does the NFL want to see a Super Bowl between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers? We’re not huge into conspiracy theories and corruption, but is it really that wild to think that maybe some critical and or bad calls would go the way of Green Bay in this game? We’d like to think that’s not a possibility, but after what’s been going on with MLB, anything can happen. This line opened at -7 and we locked it in early. It’s floating around -8 at this point in time but we’re still laying the points. The Packers seemingly have the big edge at the quarterback position, but in most other areas the advantages tilt towards the 49ers. Don’t forget either that Aaron Rodgers is an unimpressive .500 quarterback away from Lambeau field and basically laid eggs this season on the west coast. If Jimmy G takes care of the football, this one could end up being another blowout.
BetCrushers Lean: San Francisco 49ers -7.5
San Francisco 49ers 27, Green Bay Packers 17
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
There is no such thing as a lock in sports betting so you won’t hear us using that phrase unless we’re joking around, but there is a such thing as plays that you feel very strongly towards. We’ve got one this weekend that we’re as high on as any play we’ve had all season, and second that we like quite a bit as well. While we’re not quite as high on the teaser due to it seeming so obvious and a lot of public money potentially being on it, we think it’s almost obligatory that we have to play it. If you’re tailing for the Championship games, just know that we’re stretching our disciplined bankroll and going a little heavier than normal if that tells you how we’re feeling. Best of luck to you, and to us!
