Preview:

The NFL Wild Card Weekend is here with six total games featuring some familiar teams and new entrants into the tournament. Things kick off Saturday afternoon as the two AFC contests go first, followed by the the final AFC and all of the NFC on Sunday and Monday night. While betting factors such as motivation don’t need to be considered much when we get to the playoffs, weather could be the key factor to keep an eye on as severe cold and wind will grip much of the country. There are some really fun matchups, and as bittersweet as the winding down of the NFL season can be, there’s still profit to be made and fun to be had. We’re going to be seemingly joining in with some popular bets, so we’ll see how that works out. Best of luck and enjoy the NFL playoffs!

AFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

vs.

NRG Stadium – Houston Texas
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (Even)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)

THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS ON OFFENSE:

At the beginning of the season it looked as though the lack of a legitimate passing game might be the downfall of the Los Angeles Chargers, but that doesn’t appear to be the case now. The Chargers offense has looked more balance and more explosive to finish the year, and they’ll try to carry that momentum into Houston. Justin Herbert wants to get that playoff win, and he’ll need to play well to do that on the road. This offense does need to start with J.K. Dobbins and the running game, and the Texans have had some trouble, especially with shifty running backs this year. They will have Azeez Al-Shaair back in the middle of the defense, which undoubtedly makes them more stout. The area of concern for the Texans might be an area that was a strength earlier in the year. Losing veterans Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward at safety has made them more vulnerable to explosive plays. If you enjoy the trenches, this is a really fun matchup. The Chargers offensive line is really strong, and Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt matching up with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr. is a really fun micro-matchup. The Chargers are also quietly down an important piece in their passing game, as Joshua Palmer has been ruled out for this game. There’s still enough firepower in the passing game, but that loss could be bigger than the average fan may think. Football is a team game, however the individual matchups between the LA offense and Houston defense are ultimately what may decide this football game.

THE HOUSTON TEXANS ON OFFENSE:

The Houston Texans offense has essentially headed the opposite direction after a fast start to the season. Losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell has really made things tougher for the Texans, particularly in the passing game. Make no mistake about it though, this offense goes with the running game and Joe Mixon. The struggles of the interior of their offensive line has also made Mixon a little more mediocre than he was earlier in the year. If the Texans are going to win this game, they absolutely have to be able to run the football. The Chargers are not one of the better run stopping units in the league, so Houston could find success here. This has been the case since their receiver injuries, we’ll be watching to see who can contribute in the passing game in addition to Nico Collins. Will the Texans try to work Diontae Johnson into the mix, or stick with aging veterans like Robert Woods? That may depend on the whether they’re winning or losing during the game. The Chargers will be cranking up the pressure with their pass rush, and how well C.J. Stroud can navigate against that is clearly one of the keys in this contest. Stroud has really not looked comfortable at all during the second half of the season. In the playoffs, turnovers are even more critical, so he needs to take good care of the football.

KEY STATS:
– The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Texans are 1-4ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Chargers

THE SKINNY:
The Chargers have found ways to win all season as Jim Harbaugh clearly understands this head coaching stuff. They’ve earned the right to be road favorites against a team that has quite frankly not looked that great since early in the year. That includes the quarterback position. Justin Herbert seems to be heating up at just the right time, while C.J. Stroud actually ranks pretty far down in a lot of advanced metrics. The Chargers, like the Rams may have some distractions based on what’s happening in California at the moment. Even with that everything really points to the Chargers finding a way to win. There is just something completely pulling on us that says the Texans are going to find a way to win this game. No chance we’re betting on a team that’s looked as best as Houston has, but this game definitely could be a small upset.

BetCrushers Lean: Houston Texans +3
Texans 23, Chargers 20

AFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

vs.

M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)

THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS ON OFFENSE:

What has happened to the offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the latter half of the season? After a quick start for Russell Wilson, he and this offense have largely been stuck in neutral. So much so that there were some insinuating offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was hinting at wanting Justin Fields to be the starter. That’s not happening though so it’ll be all on Russell Wilson to pull off the upset of the weekend. Wilson wasn’t terrible in his first matchup with the Ravens, and he was without George Pickens in that game. Although he and Pickens have struggled to get on the same page since the receiver came back from his injury, he at least gives the Steelers a viable threat at the position. That will be needed as we know the Ravens can lock down Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren on the ground. Wilson needs to do three things in this game. First, and obviously, take care of the football. If the Steelers lose the turnover battle in this game they’re probably done. Second, he has to hit the big plays in the passing game that present themselves. The Ravens defense has been really good, including against the pass over the last half of the season, but they can still give up some plays, particularly with cornerback Brandon Stephens. Lastly, Wilson is going to have to channel some of his youth and be the scrambler that he was earlier in his career. He doesn’t need to have a massive day with his legs, but he’s got to be able to escape pressure and possibly pick up some big third downs running.

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:

The Ravens offense continues to roll heading into the playoffs, and this is their best group since Lamar Jackson has been quarterback. The two things to be wary of would be the fact no team has had more success at consistently slowing them down than the Steelers, and there is a little pressure on Jackson. The Ravens offensive line is huge, and effective, and one of very few that can push the Steelers around a bit. Derrick Henry has been basically unstoppable against any defense, and the Steelers know they’re going to have to bring it to slow him down. They actually did a really good job against him in the first half in their earlier meeting, but things unraveled quickly in the second half. Analyst Greg Olsen mentioned the path to success for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens is to get him comfortable early. Lots of easy and quick throws, possibly some designed runs, and things that he really likes. We’d agree with that as the mental piece of the game really seems like the only way Jackson and this offense can be stopped. The Steelers did get a bit of a break as the Ravens top WR Zay Flowers was ruled out on Thursday. Without Flowers, the Steelers can focus a little more attention on Henry and guys like Mark Andrews, and Lamar Jackson running. The Steelers got their own good news as it looks like cornerback Donte Jackson will be able to play. That’s huge, as replacement Cory Trice was being picked on, and not able to compete in relief of Jackson. One other piece that could be slightly interesting is watching the kicking battle. Justin Tucker seems to have gotten back into form after a rough stretch in the season, but with the playoffs on the line, can they count on him like they used to?

KEY STATS:
– The Steelers are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Ravens
– The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games

Of all of the games this weekend, the team that starts fast could have the biggest advantage. The Ravens want to get ahead and be able to ride Derrick Henry in the second half of the game. That would also give Lamar Jackson some confidence. The Steelers on the other hand want to get up on the Ravens and make them more of a one dimensional team, thus putting the pressure on Jackson, especially without having Zay Flowers available. Despite his early career playoff struggles, this feels like a different Lamar Jackson, and is clearly a better Ravens team as a whole. Pittsburgh has looked so poor over the last 5 weeks there’s just no chance they can hang with this juggernaut, right? Well, we’re punting again here as this is just too many points to lay in a divisional game. Chances are the Ravens roll here, but the line is simply too high.

BetCrushers Lean: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5
Ravens 27, Steelers 19

AFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

vs.

Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)

THE DENVER BRONCOS ON OFFENSE:

Would you believe over the last 8 weeks the Denver Broncos have the 4th highest scoring offense in the league, averaging over 32 points per game?  Lost in the fast start of Jayden Daniels is the fact Bo Nix has put together a really remarkable rookie season of his own.  Nix is throwing the ball accurately and confidently.  Some of this stems from what has been good offensive line play, which he’ll need against a Bills pass rush that has been markedly better at home than on the road.  The Bills defense does not actually grade out all that well in a lot of categories, but they have collected turnovers in chunks.  In fact, it’s not hyperbole to say the success of their defense rests on whether or not they get turnovers.  Rookie quarterbacks generally do not fair well in their playoff debuts, particularly on the road, so this is the single most important piece to watch in this game.  Denver doesn’t run the ball particularly well, and the Bills starting corners are strong and healthy heading into the postseason.  That’s the short way of saying Sean Payton is going to have to get pretty creative if the offense wants to continue their strong play.  In addition to turnovers, third down effectiveness will be critical.  The Bills are at the bottom of the league in third down defense so let’s keep an eye on if they can get off of the field or not.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

The Bills offense is one of those three units that rank ahead of Denver heading into the playoffs over the last 8 weeks.  Offensive coordinator Joe Brady continues to garner praise for his ability to adapt and utilize the skills of what he has on offense.  Of course the biggest thing he has is quarterback Josh Allen, who will have to do a lot against a very good Denver defense.  The Broncos lead the league in sacks, while the Bills have allowed the fewest.  Strength on strength and something has to give.  Although, what that could mean is Josh Allen running a bit more, as he is known to do in important games and situations.  The Broncos are pretty stout against the run, but they have struggled a bit containing running backs as pass catchers out of the backfield.  Look for James Cook and Ty Johnson to make some plays in the passing game.  While the Bills don’t have any major superstars at receiver, their approach of spreading it around could fare well against Denver.  Chances are Patrick Surtain II will be pretty bored in this one, as Brady and Allen will probably simply avoid wherever he is working.  Denver’s defense has been really good all year, but against the better offenses they haven’t been quite as dominant.  Do they have enough to slow down a Bills offense that averages more than a field goal per drive?

KEY STATS:
– The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the Bills
– The Bills are undefeated straight up at home in the 2024 season
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Bills

This game is a little difficult to handicap when trying to find an edge.  On the one hand, the Bills are at home, have the better record, quarterback and experience.  On the flip side, the Broncos are one of the hotter teams heading into the playoffs, and because the Bills are reliant on turnovers defensively, it could be tight if they aren’t able to get any.  The other really notable thing to watch out for here is how creative and diabolical Sean Payton can be scheming up plays.  He knows what he’s getting from Sean McDermott’s defense, and he may be able to exploit it.  This spread is just really tough because the Bills are either going to get up early and probably run away with this game, or it’ll be a little tense if the Broncos offense can do what they’ve been doing lately.  This could absolutely be a Bills 35-10 game, so no bet for us, but gun to the head, we’d have to take the points.  There are some really juicy player prop bets for this game, particularly the receiving totals for the Bill’s running backs.  

BetCrushers Lean: Denver Broncos +8.5
Bills 27, Broncos 24

NFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

vs.

Lincoln Financial Stadium – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

The Green Bay Packers made a splash in last season’s playoffs with an absolutely unstoppable offense.  We’ve seen that with this team on multiple occasions, and when they’re going, this offense is as good as you’ll see.  The problem here is we’ve tended to see a lot more of an up and down offense of late, particularly against good teams.  The Eagles defense is a step above good, they can be downright stifling.  Looking at some numbers, you may not think the absence of Christian Watson is that big.  However, when you study the team’s effectiveness when he’s on the field the numbers are substantially better at gaining first downs and scoring points.  The Eagles young secondary is fast and have the skill set to keep up with the speedsters on GB like Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs.  Tight end Tucker Kraft could be a busy man in the offense in this specific matchup, especially without Christian Watson.  Of course the Packers want to work Josh Jacobs as much as they can, and will attempt to get him going out of the gate.  This is a really massive battle of the bigs in the interior for the Eagles and with the offensive line of the Packers.  This is very good against very good.  Can Green Bay deal with the road noise and get the offense rolling?

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:

The Eagles got some good news as quarterback Jalen Hurts cleared concussion protocol and practiced late this week.  In all seriousness, when you watched how well Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee played in his absence, it just solidifies how good this offense is overall.  We all know it starts with the offensive line, which is one of the few units that can push this Green Bay defense around a bit.  That’s good news for Saquon Barkley, who should be fresh after resting during the final week of the regular season.  Barkley has faced the Packers three times in his career and gone for over 100 yards on each occasion.  The Packers are going to end up having to do something they don’t do a ton of, which is bring extra men to stop Barkley and the running game.  That puts an insane amount of pressure on the corners to match up with one of the top one-two punches at receiver with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.  Both are a little dinged up heading into the contest, but still should have an advantage.  The Eagles have started notoriously slow on offense this year, which isn’t a big deal against bad teams, but could be an issue in the playoffs.  Let’s see how focused they are and if they can force the Packers to play from behind.  

KEY STATS:
– The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 12 games on the road for the Packers
– The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Eagles have won 7 games in a row straight up at home

As mentioned, the Packers offense can be pretty hot and cold so who can say for sure what happens here?  This seems like a spot though where they’d be more cold, simply because of the matchup.  It’s also fair to point out Jordan Love is a little banged up as well, which may impact his overall play.  The Packers are a good football team, but they just don’t seem to quite be in the same tier as the Eagles who are arguably the top team heading into the tournament.  The Packers may be able to light it up, but this feels like a game the Eagles will win, and probably cover.  

BetCrushers Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -5
Eagles 29, Packers 20

NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

vs.

Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)

THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS ON OFFENSE:

There’s a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels heading into this playoff matchup against the Buccaneers.  Not because expectations are necessarily high, but more because he has to shoulder a big burden of the offense for the Commanders.  Daniels is capable, but he does need to find some help somewhere along the way.  The Commanders offensive line has improved, but it’s still probably not likely that we’ll get a ton from the running game as Vita Vea will look to slow down Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler, who is returning from IR.  Where they can have success is in pass blocking, as the Bucs have not consistently gotten after opposing quarterbacks this year.  That may not be a huge deal though as TB may want to keep Daniels in the pocket more than see him on the run.  What will be a big deal is the status of the starters for the Tampa secondary.  Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield in particular will play a big part in this game, and if they aren’t able to go, or are limited, that could be the difference for the Commanders offense.  This Buccaneers defense isn’t great by any stretch, but Todd Bowles still deserves a slight advantage over a rookie quarterback.  

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

The Buccaneers have proven throughout this year they can move the ball on anyone.  Like TB, the Commanders defense hasn’t been dominant either, but they’re healthy going into the playoffs, and that’s really important.  We’re keeping an eye on how well Washington can do at slowing down a Bucs running game that has been extremely potent since giving the bulk of the work to rookie Bucky Irving.  He should have another solid game as the offensive line has really become strong, behind stud left tackle Tristan Wirfs.  It’s not a guarantee though, as the veteran linebacker group for Washington is tested and proven.  Perhaps the biggest linebacker of note this weekend will be Dante Fowler, Jr., who has been great this season.  He’s the key to getting after Baker Mayfield in the passing game.  We mentioned the Bucs can move the ball, but Mayfield has also had a couple of turnover heavy games as well.  Pressure leads to bad plays, and that’s what Baker Mayfield absolutely needs to avoid.  The featured matchup will be Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, a couple of rivals who don’t care for each other, but tight end Cade Otton could be the key through the air.  With him out of the lineup, this offense looked a lot clunkier.  

KEY STATS:
– The Commanders have won 5 games in a row straight up
– The Commanders are 5-3 straight up on the road in the 2024 season
– The Buccaneers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Buccaneers are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games

The spread is where you’d imagine it would be between these two teams playing in Tampa.  The Commanders are probably the better team from players 1 to 53, but the Buccaneers may be slightly better where it matters in the trenches.  Additionally, Baker Mayfield is playing confidently and should benefit from a solid running game.  Jayden Daniels has proven he can be a great player in this league as a rookie, but the statistics on rookies in the playoffs don’t lie.  Todd Bowles has made a career out of stumping young quarterbacks.  Maybe we’ll see an early career defining game for Daniels, but it seems more plausible the Buccaneers will hold serve at home.  

BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Buccaneers 30, Commanders 24

NFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
vs.

State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)

THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS ON OFFENSE:

Sam Darnold really fell a little flat in the big moment against the Lions, which is why the Vikings are playing the Rams in the Wild Card round.  Will he be able to bounce back and play good football, or is he just not elite enough to do so?  For starters, his offensive line needs to play much better than they did against Detroit if they want to do anything in the playoffs.  We can argue all day long about how elite Darnold really is, but it’s pretty apparent he needs some time to throw to be effective.  (Most QB’s do).  Unfortunately for Darnold and the Vikes, the Rams have one of the top pressure generating fronts in the entire league thanks to a great couple of drafts.  Head coach Kevin O’Connell is going to need to find some quick plays for Darnold to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers to avoid what we saw a week ago.  Additionally, banged up running back Aaron Jones is going to need to prove why they brought him over in free agency during this playoff run.  When you break this matchup down to its core, it might be the team that is able to stay more balanced offensively that can get the win.  

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

The Rams took the alternate approach in the final week of the regular season, opting to get veterans rested and healthy headed into this game.  We won’t really know if there’s any rust on the Rams, as they perplexingly go through weird phases where they struggle to put points up normally.  Are we getting 40 from this offense, or are we kicking a few field goals?  That uncertainty makes the Rams frustrating, but we’ll break it down as well as we can here.  For starters, there will be a battle with the running game of the Rams against a good Vikings run defense.  Minnesota wants to make the Rams one dimensional so they can try to get pressure on Stafford.  How well Kyren Williams does early in the game and on early downs will be a big tell on how much the Vikings will be able to blitz in the game.  We know the Rams will want to get the ball to Puka Nacua, but it’s Cooper Kupp that needs to step up in the playoffs.  After a fast start to the season, he’s been really quiet down the stretch.  When this offense is really clicking, it’s back and forth with he and Nacua, not just one of them.  Another player to keep an eye on is tight end Tyler Higbee who is working back from his injury.  He gives this Rams offense another dimension in the passing game.  All that being said, this circles back a bit to the trenches.  Can the Rams offensive line hold up and give Stafford the time he needs against the Vikings pressure?

KEY STATS:
– The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Vikings are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games
– The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games

The Vikings and the Rams are both underrated heading into the playoffs.  Minnesota won 14 games, and the Rams when healthy have been about as good as any team in the league.  There are question marks in this ballgame as well though.  How will the late move to Arizona impact the Rams?  The team is bringing family, pets and friends down to get out of the tragedy occuring in LA.  Can Matthew Stafford be focused on beating a very good Vikings defense when he just let the world know his house burned down?  It’s not just the logistics, any small homefield advantage the Rams would have had in SoFi will probably be erased, as we’ll probably see more purple than blue in Glendale.  The Vikings are the more consistent team, but the Rams can be elite at times.  This just doesn’t feel like it will be one of those times.

BetCrushers Lean: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Vikings 28, Rams 22

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

You’ve had a chance to check out our leans and predictions for all six of the Wild Card weekend matchups. Below are our official wagers.