Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 24-21
Week 11 Recap:
An unimpressive split of plays going 2-2 in week eleven actually could be considered a victory for us based on circumstance. The main reason being we were all in on a teaser bet with the Baltimore Ravens, under the assumption that the matchup was going to be Lamar Jackson versus Justin Fields at the quarterback position. The unexpected scratch of Jackson, then facing off with Andy Dalton made things really shaky as we were staring at Tyler Huntley taking over for the Ravens as signal caller. Somehow Huntley took the Ravens down the field enough to get the win and preserve that teaser which allowed us the .500 finish. We won with the Houston Texans team total as they surpassed that pretty early in the game, due mainly to their opportunistic defense. The Texans feasted on a Titans team missing their top skill position talent, and set up their offense with several short fields. We lost with the Cleveland Browns, who despite a fast start, allowed the Lions to hang around, and were unable to cover the big number, with a less than impressive home performance. The other loss came when we tried to ride the wave of Green Bay Packer unders, as both the Pack and the Vikings exploded on offense, finally bringing that winning streak to a close. With the situation for the Ravens and our teaser bet, we’ll take the 2-2 with a smile and move on to bigger and better things in week twelve.
Week 12 Picks:
Hopefully you caught our Thanksgiving article which offered up taking the under on the New Orleans Saints team total that was set at 20 point. The depleted Saints offense was unable to get anything going and finished with just six points, starting our week of plays out with a nice 1-0 mark. As far as the rest of the weekend goes we’ve got plays in both of the key AFC North showdowns, a teaser bet with the same two teams we played a few weeks back, and an over total and under total. Best of luck with whatever you’re playing!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Sunday November 28th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
One of the nastier recent rivalries of the league will take place again in Cincinnati when the Bengals host the Steelers in one of two crucial AFC North contests. The Steelers welcome back some of their elite talent and hope and will look to stop a recent skid against the Bengals. The winner of this contest gets a boost, and the loser is going to find themselves with an uphill climb in both the division and the conference.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense continues to be far from explosive as they work their way through this season. Despite mediocre line play, rookie running back Najee Harris has really been as good as advertised as the team’s top pick. Harris is going to get a lot of work against the Bengals, a team that has looked great stopping the run some weeks, and terrible on others. The home matchup and rivalry should have the defenses fired up so it could be tough sledding for Harris if offensive coordinator Matt Canada doesn’t come up with some more creative ways to run the ball. The Steelers will also look to get the ball to Harris in the passing game as they can’t afford to not let Harris get his touches. Some good news for Pittsburgh in that passing game is Ben Roethlisberger has actually looked pretty good getting the ball down the field, something that was a big concern at the beginning of the season. The emergence of Pat Freiermuth at tight end has helped Ben and the offense by taking some pressure off of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. When the Bengals have struggled this season defending the pass it’s been when teams have spread them out and confused them. This goes back to Matt Canada again, and developing a good game plan. We started by mentioning the offensive line play for the Steelers, and that’s a concern here against an underrated defensive line for Cincinnati. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have quietly been impact players getting after quarterbacks, specifically those that aren’t mobile. The Steelers need to win their one on one receiving matchups so Roethlisberger can get the football out of his hand quickly.
The future for the Cincinnati Bengals offense is extremely bright, as the team is really a couple of upgrades on the offensive line away from being an elite unit. As it is, Joe Burrow is leading this team with his instant connection to rookie Ja’Marr Chase. One of the more important injuries to monitor heading into Sunday is Steelers cornerback Joe Haden, who the team really needs in this game to help not only match up with Chase, but give the team depth against the trio of Bengals receivers. The best news for Pittsburgh is they will have both T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back, which is huge in their quest to slow down the Bengals. If Watt is healthy, he needs to be a game-wrecker off the edge to make up for the matchup deficiencies on the back end. As is the case with most teams, the Bengals offense runs much more smoothly when they’re running the ball well. Joe Mixon has had some nice games this season, however it’s often been tough finding running room behind that previously mentioned offensive line. In previous years the Steelers have been one of the top run defenses in the league, but missing some of their top big men has resulted in them struggling against opposing rushers. Because the Bengals will spread them out, it’s going to be imperative that they can keep Mixon contained without having to commit their safeties.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Steelers are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games in Cincinnati
– The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Bengals are 3-6 ATS as a favorite
Remember when the Pittsburgh Steelers really just owned the Cincinnati Bengals, even with they were a decent team? Times are changing in the AFC North as the Bengals are on the upswing, while the Steelers are in a weird transition with Big Ben winding things down. The fact of the matter is that this game really shouldn’t be all that close as Cincinnati is a better team top to bottom. However, this is a divisional game that is really a must-win for both teams, and will most likely end up coming down to the wire. It’s always a little scary betting on the “lesser” team, even with the points, but the Steelers aren’t exactly the Jets or Texans. What is actually a little concerning is betting on a team that is a bit of a trendy underdog, which is what the Steelers are in this game. That being said, this just seems like it has to end up being a field goal game, doesn’t it?
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +4
Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Sunday November 28th
4:25pm
FOX
Levi Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
A pair of .500 teams will square off in a game that features some similarities beyond just the identical records. Both Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo have been beleaguered players at the position, and both are proving critics wrong this season. The 49ers will try to outmuscle the Vikings in the trenches, as Minnesota will look to use their explosive offense to come away with the road win.
Every week we seem to write about how Kirk Cousins continues to make people look bad by questioning his ability in this league. Cousins has been every bit a top ten quarterback this season, and the Vikings offense is rolling, despite average offensive line play. Cousins will have a really tough test against the 49ers who have been playing to their potential on defense recently. The Niners getting healthy in their secondary has been the biggest key, and they’ll need their compliment of players to slow down the Vikings passing attack. Justin Jefferson has been playing as well as any receiver in the league over the last month, and he could be in line for another big day on Sunday. The player Minnesota really needs to step up is Adam Thielen. The veteran receiver continues to be productive in the red zone, but his overall production hasn’t been quite where the team would like it to be. With San Francisco moving from nearly exclusive zone coverage to more of man to man, Thielen needs to use his footwork to win his matchups. Realistically, the Vikings hopes for this game are going to rest with Dalvin Cook and the running game. The 49ers have had trouble with physical running backs, and Cook can be physical in addition to fast. The average offensive line play we mentioned has made things a little tougher for Cook and the running game. Cook has to be the piece of the offense that steps up for Minnesota as he has the most winnable matchup for the offense against the interior of the Niners.
For as much criticism as Kirk Cousins has taken, the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo has probably taken a lot more as there still chants for Trey Lance in San Francisco. Just as with Cousins, the rumblings have been largely unfair as Jimmy G has been playing better than most of the quarterbacks in the league, at least over the last five weeks. So much so that we have him as our Star of the Week in our Daily Fantasy Football article, and noted that he’s the only QB with over a 100 QBR in the past 4 games. That strong play should continue in this game as he’ll be facing a Vikings defense that has struggled lately, and will be shorthanded on the defensive line. The losses of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffin, along with the always solid offensive line play for San Francisco should give Garoppolo plenty of time in the pocket to throw. With the return of George Kittle at tight end, this team all of a sudden becomes a really tough matchup for even a complete defense. San Francisco loves to run the football, and against a Vikings team that’s allowing nearly 5 yards per rush, they should find a lot of success no matter who’s toting the ball. When you add in the fact that Deebo Samuel has been a top five wideout, and Brandon Auyik is finally getting involved in the offense, that could spell trouble for the Vikings.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 road games for the Vikings
– The total has gone over in the last 5 games for the 49ers vs an NFC North opponent
This could sneakily be one of the most exciting football games of the weekend, assuming the Vikings defense can hang in there a bit. The reason we think it will be a good game is there should be no shortage of offense and scoring. The 49ers should be able to secure the win here, and most likely cover the game, but Minnesota is always hanging around. If anything, despite the bad matchup for the Vikings, if anything we’d probably have to take the points. The much more appealing play comes from the thought that points will be plentiful in the game. We’re going to take a game over here, something we truthfully haven’t had great success on this season. Let’s see if we can right that ship in this game.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 48.5
49ers 30, Vikings 24
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (7-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Sunday November 28th
4:25pm
FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Los Angeles Rams -2 (-115)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
In what could be an NFC Championship preview the Los Angeles Rams make the journey to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is no stranger to playing in Green Bay or against Aaron Rodgers, but the stakes are a lot higher for his team as they look to regain the traction they had early in the season. Can the Rams find a way to gel their new pieces into their lineup and win a game that is for all intents and purposes a toss up?
The loss of wide receiver Robert Woods could end up being a really tough blow for the Rams as he’s been such a key cog in their offense over the past few years. Of course, if Odell Beckham, Jr. can come close to resembling the receiver we saw in New York, that would change things quickly. In truth, the Rams offense has had their struggles since even before Woods was lost for the season. Matthew Stafford hasn’t looked comfortable in the pocket, and the team has turned the ball over too much to win football games. He’ll attempt to get on track in a place that isn’t easy for opposing quarterbacks to play, although it’s a spot he’s certainly familiar with in Lambeau Field. The Packers added depth at the corner position in the offseason, and they’re going to need to rely on that depth against the Rams as Kevin King will likely join Jaire Alexander on the sideline for this one. Rasul Douglas and Chandon Sullivan have filled in fairly well in relief, and they’ll have a big test against Cooper Kupp and Beckham, who should be getting more comfortable with the Rams scheme. Preston Smith has returned and helped provide some pass rush, which will be key in trying to slow down Stafford, and potentially force more turnovers. The biggest question mark for Green Bay on defense in this game is Rashan Gary, who is questionable to play. Gary, who was gone mostly unnoticed, is playing some of the best linebacker in the league. As always, the safety tandem of Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos will need to play well both against the run and the pass to help slow down LA.
Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice this week with his toe injury, you know the one that was called “worse than turf toe, COVID toe, etc”. Rodgers certainly can function without the practice, and fortunately for him, most of his targets can as well as they’ve been together for a bit. The Packers should have Aaron Jones back so their running back tandem will together, and will need to challenge the run defense of the Rams. That could be a little tougher though as the Packers will be down to basically a third string left tackle as Elgton Jenkins was lost for the season last week. With David Bakhtiari still not back, it looks like Yosh Nijman or Dennis Kelly will get the start and responsibility protecting Rodgers blind side. That’s not ideal when you’re lining up against the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller on the other side. Rodgers will need to use his mastery of the snap count and cadence to try to neutralize that defense of the Rams and give him time to throw. Speaking of throwing, we’re going to get to see strength versus strength as Davante Adams will have some matchups against Jalen Ramsey on the outside. If Ramsey and the Rams can stop Adams, it’s always a question of whether or not someone else on the offense can step up and win their matchups? The return of Aaron Jones could be helpful just as much in the receiving game as it is in the running game as a safety valve for Rodgers if he is under heavy pressure.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for the Rams
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 games for the Rams vs an opponent in the NFC North
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 games for the Packers
Add in the Cardinals, Buccaneers and Cowboys, and these two teams round out your most likely Super Bowl representative from the NFC. The Rams seem to have the advantage when you put this game down on paper, but as we all know, games aren’t played on paper. We were hopeful of getting three points with the Packers, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see that number, so we’re back to our more standard Green Bay play. This game should be all about defenses, and Rodgers doing enough to keep this close for Green Bay in a low-scoring affair. After riding their unders to victory, the Packers tripped us up last week with a shootout. Things should regress back to the under parade here as despite the headliners on offense, it’s the defenses that’ll share the stage in this one. We actually locked this ahead on the week lookahead at 50.5, which was absurdly high, hence the reason it’s been bet down. As long as it’s not under 47, we’re still rolling with the under here.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 47.5
Rams 24, Packers 20
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (6-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Sunday November 28th
8:20pm
NBC
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The Browns and Ravens are the other important AFC North tilt as they’ll face off once again in prime time for Sunday Night Football. Baltimore has it’s usual laundry list of injuries, but they will have quarterback Lamar Jackson back after missing last week’s win against the Ravens with an illness. Can Baker Mayfield and the Browns find a way to get over the hump against the banged up Ravens?
We’ve had breakdowns of the Browns offense for the last few weeks, and it just never really seems to change. As always, the big question is, what will we see out of quarterback Baker Mayfield in this game? The good news for Browns fans, is that Mayfield has had some pretty nice games against the Ravens, so there is that nice trend to look for. Some more positives are the offense looks like they’ll have right tackle Jack Conklin back in the lineup and possibly running back Kareem Hunt as well. As their offense is healing at the right time, the Ravens defense continues to be beaten up. Their defensive line is the newest unit that is thin, as the team hopes Calais Campbell will be able to go by Sunday evening. One thing is for sure, the Browns will try to utilize their offensive line to win this football game. The focal points will of course be Nick Chubb and to a lesser extent Hunt, or D’Ernest Johnson. The blueprint for stopping the Browns really is as simple as stopping their running game. When Chubb and company are slowed down, this offense struggles. Heck, even when they’re not slowed down this offense can struggle. Fortunately for Mayfield and the Browns, the Ravens have given up some big plays in the passing game and are allowing 8.1 yards per completion. For perspective, only the Lions and Jets have been worse in that department. The inconsistent pass rush for Baltimore, coupled by subpar secondary play makes them susceptible against the pass. For the Browns to pull of this upset, Mayfield has to take advantage of this and push the ball down the field when the opportunity presents itself.
Credit to Tyler Huntley for getting the job down for the Ravens against the Bears a week ago, however it’s no surprise how different this offense looks without Lamar Jackson. All signs are a go for Jackson, and he looks to take on a Cleveland team he also has performed really well against during his career. After starting the season stout against the run the Browns have had trouble the past few weeks. The Ravens need to establish the run, including with Jackson, to open up the passing lanes for him against a vulnerable secondary. The Browns secondary hasn’t played badly, they just seem to make occasional mistakes at untimely moments of their games. In addition to having Jackson back, it looks like his top wideout Marquise Brown should also be back in the lineup, giving Jackson a full array of weapons to throw to. While Sammy Watkins made the big play a week ago, keep your eyes on the rookie Rashod Bateman, as he should have some single coverage in this game and could make some big plays for them. The Browns are continuing to try to find some help for Myles Garrett, and need someone else on the opposite side to help in this game to contain Jackson and try to keep him flustered and in the pocket.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 road games for the Browns
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 home games for the Ravens
These two teams gave us great prime time entertainment a season ago, and things are lining up for another good one. Somehow the Ravens keep finding ways to win despite having what seems like half of their team on injured reserve. Lamar Jackson is one of those rare players that kind of wins and loses games on his own. Yes, that’s a bold statement and hyperbole, but it’s kind of true. He should find success against this Browns defense that seems to have the parts, but can’t play well as a sum. Cleveland on the other hand should be able to move the ball as well as they’ll have the advantage that they usually enjoy in the trenches. Put that altogether, and expect and exciting football game, much like the one we had a year ago. The game over is very much in play here, but we’re going to settle for the Ravens team total over as it sits at a somewhat low 24.5 points. As long as Cleveland can keep up to some extent, which we believe they will, the Ravens should get some points up and get over that total.
BetCrushers Take: Ravens Team Total – Over 24.5
Ravens 27, Browns 21
Teaser Bet
Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (8-3) vs. New England Patriots (7-4)
Sunday November 28th
1:00pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -7 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (7-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Sunday November 28th
4:25pm
FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Los Angeles Rams -2 (-115)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
The New England Patriots are touchdown favorites and rising against the Tennessee Titans who will be without their top three offensive players. The Packers are short underdogs playing at home in a big game against the Los Angeles Rams that we featured above. Earlier in the season we successfully paired these two teams in a 6 point teaser, and we’re going to give it another go this Sunday.
With what you saw from us above, we’re counting on a defense contest with the Rams and Packers. If that holds true, getting 8 points with Aaron Rodgers at home seems like a really good play. What is an even better play is being able to take a red-hot New England Patriots team at home, against a Tennessee Titans team that is missing it’s top three offensive weapons. Ryan Tannehill turned the ball over four times against the Texans, and it’s understandable that he’s going to have trouble without his supporting cast. In reality, Tannehill was the supporting cast to Derrick Henry. New England’s defense is clicking, and they should have little resistance against the backup receivers for Tennessee. Mathew Judon has been playing at an All-Pro level and could wreak havoc on Tannehill if he’s forced to hold the football. On the other side of the ball, this is just a really bad matchup for the Titans as well. It doesn’t help that they’re going to be thin at the linebacker spot and on the interior of the defensive line against a team that wants to run the football. The secondary has been a strength for the Titans this season, and they can certainly matchup with New England, but the fact of the matter is, the Patriots won’t care. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will try to run the ball run down the throat of the Titans until he finds an opportunity for Mac Jones to take his shots in the passing game. It’s a shame that we won’t see Tennessee at full strength in what should be a great contest, but that’s life in the NFL, and this advantage goes solidly to New England.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 2-7 straight up in their last 9 games vs the Patriots
– The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
–The Patriots are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 home games vs the Titans
– The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Rams are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games playing at Green Bay
– The Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Packers are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home games
Teasing home teams at the appropriate numbers is really what this teaser is all about. We’re going one direction with the Patriots, and the opposite with the Packers. If this exact teaser can work once, it can definitely work again.
