Previous Week Plays – 3-4
Season Record – 22-19
Week 10 Recap:
The Cleveland Browns were a somewhat trendy underdog in their matchup with rookie quarterback Mac Jones in New England. After a pretty sound first drive, it was all downhill from there for the Brownies as they were basically curb-stomped in all three phases of the game. Having loaded up with multiple Browns bets, it simply crushed what would have been a winning weekend. Our other loss was a disappointing showing by the Chargers offense against a beat up Vikings defense, as Justin Herbert failed to even get to the 200 yard mark. Our favorite play of the weekend was the under in the Green Bay and Seattle ballgame, and that was an under bettors delight living through that. The BetCrushers were enjoying watching that game, with a heavy unit wager in Atlantic City. We also cashed very early taking the Dallas Cowboys team total over 31.5, anticipating a big redemption performance for Dak Prescott and the Boys’. They pounded Atlanta early and often and crossed the threshold early in the third quarter for a smooth cover. Our other win was much more of a fortunate sweat as we had the Detroit Lions under 17.5 points for their team total. The Lions scored 10 pretty quick points, and had 16 points half way through the third quarter. A simple field goal for Detroit would have pushed them over and handed us a defeat, but no more scoring occurred, including opportunities in overtime. Although it seemed like a fortunate win, in reality, the Lions went full-on Lions which is why we bet against them to begin with. In summary, it wasn’t an awful week, we just got burned by the Cleveland Browns. Next time we decide to load up on a team, we’ll look at a more reliable ball club.
Week 11 Picks:
If this week’s article resembles our week 10 article, it’s not because you’re experiencing a case of deja vu. Some similar teams and selections make a repeat performance on our ticket as we look to get back to our winning ways. The last three weeks have been very strange in NFL betting across the spectrum. Both amateur and “sharp” bettors alike have seen some struggles. Closing line value hasn’t gotten home for the pros, and the Joes continue to get hammered by betting road favorites. In trying to evaluate the “why” in this, something has to be said about the interesting matchups around the league. We’ve had a lot of double-digit favorite games, inter-conference contests, and games impacted by COVID-19. With that being said, it might not be the worst thing in the world if you decide to dial back your wagers while some of this madness works itself back into form. The BetCrushers settled on four plays this week, a chalky rebound play, a team total, a game total and a teaser. The full breakdown is below:
Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Sunday November 21st
1:00pm
FOX
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -12 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
Tim Boyle will get the start for the Lions when they head across the turnpike to take on the Cleveland Browns, fresh off an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots. The Lions got their first “victory” er, tie of the season against a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steeler team in overtime. Jared Goff hasn’t been overly impressive in the past month or so, and fans will get a chance to see if his backup can perform any better in the Dawg Pound. .
For everyone bashing Lion’s quarterback Jared Goff, we’ll get to see how things go without him against the Browns. Tim Boyle will get the nod against what we’re assuming will be a fired up Cleveland defense and home crowd. The matchup up front is actually going to be a good one as the Lion’s offensive line has played fairly well as the season has progressed. There’s a lot of muscle on both sides and any chance the Lions are going to have of winning this game will depend on their line winning their matchups. It’ll be tough though as the Browns defense has been strong at home, and is of course needing to bounce back in a big way. Detroit will want to run the ball to protect Boyle, which will be tough against the Browns front seven. Despite getting gashed a week ago, this is a good run defense that is aggressive at the line of scrimmage. Putting the ball in Boyle’s hands we’ll learn pretty quickly if he’s going to be able to command the offense or not. Although the Browns secondary has given up some big plays in the passing game this year, it’s tough to see where that will come from with the Lions. Playing with a roster of wide receivers that are realistically not starting caliber, the Browns will rely on their corners to lock up and keep things tight. A player that’s been quiet in recent weeks that the Lions need to step up for their new QB is tight end T.J. Hockenson. With the Browns likely to use their safeties either in the box or the give some help to their own banged up secondary, Hockenson should have some room to operate.
The Baker Mayfield circle of life reared it’s ugly head in the cycle of disappointment against the Patriots. He’ll have a chance to rebound against the Lions in his fourth straight game in the post OBJ era. Even though the Lions secondary isn’t necessarily amazing on paper, they’ve actually performed fairly well all things considered. It’s fair to point out that with teams being ahead for much of the season that Detroit hasn’t been thrown at very often. Mayfield may not have the most elite wide receivers either, however he has a lot of quality options to throw to, including his tight end roster. Make no mistake about it though, this game and this team wins and loses with their running game. Fortunately the team will have Nick Chubb back after missing last week and he should be in line for another monster performance. Chubb should see 20+ carries and against the Lions will be a likely candidate for a 100 yard performance. Assuming Nick Chubb handles his business, things should line up well for Mayfield to put on a better showing and adjust his position on the “Mayfield cycle”.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 Lions games
– The Lions are 0-13-1 in their last 14 games
– The Browns are 13-5 straight up in their last 18 home games
This game has mismatch written all over it when you look at the X’s and O’s. Add in the fact that you’ve got the Lions coming off of an emotional and draining performance, and the Browns anxious to re-establish themselves in the AFC and things could get ugly. Normally, it can be profitable to bet on a good team with a backup quarterback playing, however the Lions are obviously not a good team. Look for a ton of Nick Chubb, some quality play action from Baker Mayfield, and an angry Cleveland defense in this game. Tim Boyle will need to be the real deal to have any shot for the Lions to be competitive here. We’re banking on the fact that it’s too overwhelming for Boyle and the Lions, and ultimately this one gets out of hand. The days of not laying double-digit points in the NFL are long gone, and when you have true mismatches it’s worth being chalky.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns -12
Browns 29, Lions 10
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-8) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-2)
Sunday November 21st
1:00pm
CBS
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -10 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Somehow and some way the Tennessee Titans just continue to win football games. Sunday they’ll be home again hosting a familiar foe when the Houston Texans head to Nissan Stadium. The Texans have lost eight in a row after winning their opener, and at this point are looking to play prideful spoilers against the banged up Titans. Mike Vrabel is getting serious consideration for coach of the year, and if he is truly that, this is a game the Titans have to win.
The return of Tyrod Taylor didn’t translate to a lot of points on the scoreboard when the Texans lost to the Dolphins. It did result in a smoother running offense as far as moving the chains went. Some costly turnovers doomed the Texans, though it had to be encouraging to see the team at least moving the football. They’ll aim to correct the turnovers and continue the offensive fluidity when they face a Titans defense that has really been playing well. The Titans have been led by Kevin Byard and Jeffery Simmons who are both playing at a Pro Bowl level in the first half of the season. The two leaders will need to be on their game, as the defense will be without a few key contributors in the linebacking level. For the Texans, they’ll look to take advantage of that void in the middle of the field with their pass catching running backs and with Tyrod Taylor and his ability to scramble. An area where the Texans may have an advantage is with the often overlooked Brandin Cooks at wide receiver. He will have some opportunities against the hobble Janorice Jenkins, who continues to be vulnerable against the deep pass. If the Texans hope to pull of the upset, it’s going to require a deep play or two from Cooks.
So far so good for the Titans with their absence of all world running back Derrick Henry. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has managed to do just enough to keep his team in the win column and on top in the AFC. He’ll look to find alternative options beyond wide receiver A.J. Brown to keep the offense moving. Although he’s gotten some unexpected performances from others, this offense has clearly not been the same without Derrick Henry and wideout Julio Jones. No one could reasonably expect that it would look the same when you’re playing without a pair of guys that’ll most likely be enshrined in Canton when their careers are over. Fortunately for the Titans, they’re facing a Texans defense that is overmatched, particularly in the trenches. Look for Tennessee to get Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols going early to try to grind their way to some success on the offensive side of the ball. Houston has had their biggest success defensively when they’ve been able to create turnovers. The most important thing for the Titans in this game is to take care of the football. If they play a clean game, they will come away with a win, and possibly cover the large spread as well. If the Texans can manage to take the ball away, they’ll have a shot to pull off the divisional upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games between the Texans and Titans
– The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
We’re very tempted to take the points in this divisional game as the Titans are banged up and possibly viewing this game as a breather between what’s been a brutal schedule. We decided to go an alternate route as there is a really good number hanging out there with the Texans team total sitting at just 16.5 with normal juice. Yes, the Titans are playing pretty good defense. Yes, the Texans are not very explosive on offense. This is a veteran quarterback that simply needs to find a way to stumble to 17 points. Don’t be surprised if this takes a full four quarters to get there, but we’re thinking they can get home.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans – Team Total Over 16.5
Titans 24, Texans 19
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (8-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Sunday November 21st
1:00pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Green Bay Packers -2 (-105)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
When simply looking at the records of the Packers and Vikings you’d tend to think this game would be a mismatch on the field. The very tight spread, and the evaluating of play and games definitely tells a different story for these two teams. The Packers continue to just get it done in a variety of situations, while the Vikings are a few key plays away from being right in the hunt in the NFC North. Will the Packers put a realistic nail in the coffin for the division with a win Sunday, or can the Vikings keep their hopes alive, and remain in the thick of things for a playoff berth?
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got through their previous week of PR challenges and came away with a shutout victory against the Seahawks in week ten. It’s time to accept the fact that the Packers just don’t lose when they’re playing in Lambeau. Things will be a little tougher for Rodgers and the offense when they head to the very loud dome to take on the Vikings. Minnesota has put together some solid defensive performances despite missing some key pieces on their defense, most notably Danielle Hunter. They’ll need to continue to play well if they’re going to contain Rodgers without the pass rush of Hunter. Everson Griffin returned and has provided a really nice spark, something that could be described as unexpected to say the least. The Packers will be without Aaron Jones for this contest so A.J. Dillon should figured to see a lot of work running the football. The Vikings haven’t been great stopping the run, so they may need to start with a focus on slowing down the powerful second year back. The good news for the Vikings is Allen Lazard will not play in this game, which means they should be able to roll their coverage pretty consistently towards Davante Adams. Keep an eye on the Vikings secondary to see if Breshaud Breeland is able to play and matchup with Adams.
If you had told the BetCrushers that Kirk Cousins would be a top-ten ranked quarterback, we’d probably have guessed they’d be 7-2 at this point in the year. In truth, their record should be better, but it speaks to the mistakes the team has made resulting in some close losses. Cousins will take a shot at a Packers defense that is playing really well even with missing a few of their top players. The Vikings will also look to start things with running back Dalvin Cook who has played solidly, if not spectacularly this season. Green Bay has improved their run defense from a season ago which should help them containing Cook. The interior of their defensive line has an advantage against the Vikings so look for Kenny Clark to be a big factor in this game. For Minnesota to move the ball they’ll need more winning performances from receiver Justin Jefferson, something they could get in this game. The Packers secondary has held up well without Jaire Alexander, mainly because they their safety tandem of Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos have played so well. The challenge they have in this game is they can’t just double Jefferson continually, as Adam Thielen and the surprising Tyler Conklin can make you pay. Because of the individual matchup problems the Vikings present, Green Bay is going to have to single up a lot here and play some zone. The Pack is capable of winning these matchups, but it only takes a couple of mistakes and guys like Cook and Jefferson can make you pay. The big question for this game is will Kirk Cousins continue to take care of the football and play well against pressure, or can the Packers force mistakes, much as they did a week ago?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in the last 7 games for the Packers
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 road games for the Packers vs. the Vikings
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 games for the Vikings
The similarities behind this week’s wager involving the Packers and last week are eerie. At some point the sportsbooks are going to adjust to the totals involving the Packers, but until they do, we’re riding this cash cow. We actually were fortunate enough to get this bet in at 49.5 again this week, but it was quickly bet down to 48 and even 47.5. We still like it at 48 and are comfortable both betting it and putting it out there for the public to wager. We’re expecting a lot of Dalvin Cook, a lot of A.J. Dillon, and some slow paced play in an important football game. Things won’t be as much of a breeze as they were a week ago, but we don’t mind hating towards the under. Who wins this one… Hard to say, but we’re thinking it’s a close game with an ever so slight advantage to the home team.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 48
Vikings 23, Packers 20
Teaser Bet
Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) vs. Chicago Bears (3-6)
Sunday November 21st
1:00pm
CBS
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers (8-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Sunday November 21st
1:00pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Green Bay Packers -2 (-105)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
In our breakdown of the Packers and Vikings game above you noticed we think it’s going to be a lower scoring and close football game. That lends itself to a nice leg of a teaser bet when we’re teasing up for extra points. In the other leg, we’re keyed in on a battle between the Ravens and the Bears in what should showcase two of the league’s most athletic quarterbacks. Head coach Matt Nagy has faced repeated criticism in Chicago, while John Harbaugh has defended the sporadic play of his own team in Baltimore.
You hopefull read our overview on the Vikings and Packers tilt above, so let’s take a really quick look at the Ravens and Bears at Soldier Field. Lamar Jackson says he’s feeling great after a mid-week illness and he’s looking to get things back going after a frustrating couple of weeks. Perhaps the best news for Jackson is he’ll be facing a Bears defense that will be without some of it’s most important pieces on Sunday. Khalil Mack is undergoing season ending surgery, and Akiem Hicks and possibly Eddie Jackson will be out for this contest. That should make the running lanes and the time in the pocket much more favorable for Jackson against a team that isn’t used to playing against mobile quarterbacks. Running back Latavius Murray returns from injury and should also benefit from the missing personnel in the Chicago defense. Fortunately for the Ravens it looks like they’ll have their entire arsenal of receivers available as well as Marquise Brown looks like he’s good to go. This proud Bears defense continues to play well, but make no mistake, this isn’t the dominant unit from a few seasons ago. Add in those previously mentioned injuries and it’s asking a lot to slow down this versatile Ravens offense.
On the other side of the ball, the nation was able to see the potential the rookie quarterback Justin Fields has in their tough loss against the Steelers. He’ll have to play well again against what has been an up and down Baltimore defense this season. The Ravens defense is also not quite what it was two years ago either as injuries and age have caught up to them a bit. The Bears best opportunity to win this game will come from controlling the time of possession and running the ball effectively. Look for David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert to each get a bunch of touches, and if they can average 4 to 5 yards per carry, they’ll be in this game. Even if the Bears can run the ball, they’re still going to need to find some complimentary offense from someone in the passing game. Allen Robinson II is the obvious target, but he continues to be irrelevant as opposing teams are taking him away and forcing others to beat them. Robinson should have some chances this weekend as Marlon Humphrey will be more in the slot, leaving Robinson against lesser corners. In truth, Humphrey hasn’t played as well this year overall as he did a year ago. The Ravens can help their case by getting a good push against one of the weaker offensive lines in the league, particularly against the pass.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 12-4 straight up in their last 16 games
– The Ravens are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games vs. NFC teams
– The Bears are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Vikings are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games vs. NFC North teams
– The Packers are 4-2 ATS in their last games vs. the Vikings
We got burned teasing the Ravens as a road dog last week, but we’re gonna give it another shot this week as well. Realistically, the Ravens should win this game fairly comfortably, but being a road game, and seeing how poorly they played against the Dolphins we want to get this down to a pick. In the second leg, we like getting over a full score in a game we’re expecting that ends up with a differential of 3 points in one direction or another. When you see our projected score, you might wonder why we don’t just bet these games straight, but there is some potential variance that makes having the extra six points nice in both contests. Much like last week, this isn’t our most traditional teaser, or most appealing, but it should be good enough to bet and cash. We’ll see if we get another tough lesson or come away with a win.
