Previous Week Plays – 0-5-1
Season Record – 16-15-1
Week 7 Recap:
Is there a good crying emoji we can start our recap with? Or maybe a fist through a wall emoji or graphic? What an absolute disaster of a weekend, as it was our worst on record dating back to the 2017 season!. We nearly completed the reverse sweep, with only a push on the total in the Chiefs and Chargers game finalizing things at 0-5-1 on the week. Where to even start? Looking back, there was some clearly poor handicapping that we have to own, but also literally no bounces went our way at all. Normally, you’ll get some sort of mix of both, but that wasn’t the case in one of those burn the film and move on type of weeks. The quick replay which is painful to type looks like this. The Cleveland Browns defense did not show up, and although they snuck away with the win, they couldn’t cover or push the FG at the end of the game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hung around all day, but also couldn’t get it done, and realistically were lucky to have an opportunity to cover as the Falcons probably should have won more convincingly. We tried to go the opposite direction of the string of recent unders and took the over in the Seahawks and Cardinals game, and while each team moved the ball fairly well, two red zone turnovers and two missed field goals crushed any hopes of a cover there. We mentioned the push on the total in the Chargers/Chiefs, but lost the piece of Chargers +5, as their defense was absolutely dissected by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Our teaser bet looked like it might sneak through when the Bills took a FG lead against the Patriots with under two minutes to play, but their defense allowed Mac Jones to drive it 75 yards and lost at the end, making the Seahawks leg irrelevant despite the win there. These weeks unfortunately creep up every so often, we’ll get back on the horse and get to work.
Week 8 Picks:
There were several games circled we had leans on as we were looking to make our final official wagers for the weekend. The best adjective to describe our approach this weekend would have to be “gun-shy”, or cautious with what we settled on. We’re sticking with a small slate this week to not only regain our footing, but also to do a bit of a reset as we near the mid-way point of the season. We’ve got one familiar bet you’ve seen if you’ve followed us this year, and for the first time, we’re playing two six point teaser bets. The numbers line up for teasers in several games, and we know they won’t all get there, so let’s see if our pairings are correct. Here’s to hoping a better weekend of football betting awaits us!
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
New England Patriots (2-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-2)
Sunday October 29th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The times they are a changing in the AFC East, and nothing is more evident of this than the coaches for the Patriots and the Dolphins. Bill Belichick has been there and done that across the league, as Mike McDaniel continues to work on his craft each week. The Patriots enter the divisional showdown against the Dolphins fresh off of a huge upset victory that notched Belichick his 300th win in the league. The Dolphins were unable to take down the Eagles and are still searching for wins against quality opponents. Can New England ride the momentum of last week to a second straight divisional upset, or will Miami’s offense prove too much for them to handle?
Boy did Mac Jones look good last week as he played his best game of the season, and you could argue of his entire career. The question is, was that an anomaly against a banged up Buffalo defense, or is Jones figuring things out in his new offensive system? We’ll have to wait to see how he performs against a Dolphins defense that has not rounded into the form they’ve hoped for under Vic Fangio, at least not yet. To make things worse, the Dolphins could be down some key starters in the secondary, which isn’t ideal for a defense that has struggled. Fortunately for Miami, the Patriots don’t boast the best offensive talent in the league. Kendrick Bourne has been a good player for them, and Demario Douglas has some speed, but that won’t be enough of a threat to keep Miami from bringing a lot of pressure in an effort to force Jones into some mistakes. The real question in this matchup will be how well the Dolphins interior run defense can hold up against Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. If New England wants to pull a second straight upset, they’re going to have to find a way to establish the running game, something they haven’t been able to do this year. They’ll also need to figure out how to block the pass rushers of the Dolphins, with their inconsistent offensive line play. Perhaps most importantly, the Pats need to score touchdowns and not settle for field goals. The same could be said for any team playing the Dolphins, but in this game, it’s particularly true.
Sometimes in a loss, you can put some things on film that opponents can use against you down the road. The Eagles may have helped paint a bit of a blueprint on slowing down the Dolphins offense, but executing that blueprint could still be a challenge. The Patriots without Matthew Judon are not great at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and when Tua Tagovailoa has had time in the pocket this year, he has been light’s out. Sure, the Patriots know this and will try to disguise and get some pressure on him, but can they? The Dolphins offensive line has been better than expected this year, and with the scheme Mike McDaniel is running they get the ball out of the Tua’s hand so quickly it’s tough to even get pressure. Where we’ve witnessed the Miami offense be most explosive, is when they’re running the ball effectively. They essentially become unstoppable when teams can’t play shell coverage. It’s a pick your poison type of situation.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Dolphins are averaging 38 points per game during the 2023 season
This game feels a little shaky for a couple of reasons. First, it’s a divisional game against an opponent who’s played Miami tough the last few seasons. Add in the fact the Dolphins have to travel to Germany to take on the Chiefs the follow week and it could be the classic look ahead spot. That would be a viable argument to us had the Dolphins entered this game on a winning streak. Coming off of a loss, they should be focused enough to find a way to win this game, particularly with their offense. The trend of battering teams with losing records should continue for Miami in this one as long as they can get a little bit of a running game going. For a team averaging almost 40 points, this total seems very reasonable in a home game against a defense missing their best player. We’re going with a team total bet here, and adding the Dolphins in a teaser below.
BetCrushers Take: Dolphins Team Total – Over 28.5
Dolphins 32, Patriots 24
Teaser Bet
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
and 
vs. 
New England Patriots (2-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-2)
Sunday October 29th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-5)
Sunday October 29th
4:25pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Dolphins -2.5 and Chiefs -1
As mentioned above, the Dolphins will be hosting the Patriots on Sunday in an important AFC East matchup that you hopefully already read about. The Chiefs are also playing in a divisional matchup as they look to extend their already sizable lead in the AFC West versus the Denver Broncos. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have owned their Sunday opponents in recent years, and there is little to believe they won’t be able to continue that trend in week eight.
Don’t look now but the Kansas City Chiefs offense seems to have found some rhythm after a slow start to the season. Even if they hadn’t they’re likely to have it this Sunday against the Denver Broncos defense, that is dead last in the National Football League. It goes against what Andy Reid likes to do, but truthfully, the Chiefs could probably just bully the middle of the Broncos defense and run Isaiah Pacheco 30 times for 200 yards in this matchup. They won’t go this route fully, but you can certainly plan on a nice game from Pacheco here. The Broncos will also need to deal with Travis Kelce who looks healthy and dialed in after his own slow start to the season. One other player to watch who could be due for a big game is running back Jerick McKinnon. Patrick Mahomes may not want to take too many chances against the secondary of the Broncos, so it could be a bigger screen and check down game than normal for the KC offense. The Broncos defense is welcoming back some contributors like Barron Browning, but overall, they won’t have enough to match the Chiefs in the trenches, or to drastically disrupt Patrick Mahomes. What’s been lost in the disappointing season for Denver is the mild improvement we’re seeing on the offensive side of the ball. This offense is still no juggernaut, but they’re certainly playing better than they were a season ago, and that starts with Russell Wilson. This is a tough assignment for Russ however, as the Chiefs are playing really well on the defensive side of the ball. Their corners will challenge Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and they’ve been able to generate pressure with disguised blitzing and Chris Jones on the interior. A key priority for Denver also needs to be to run the football, something the Chiefs are generally willing to live with. Allowing 4.7 yards per carry, a steady mix of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin would do wonders to support Russell Wilson, and also keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Dolphins are averaging 38 points per game during the 2023 season
– The Chiefs are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games vs. the Broncos
– The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. the Broncos
– The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Broncos are 0-9 straight up in their last 9 home games vs. the Chiefs
Assuming the Dolphins can squeeze out their teaser cover, the Chiefs should be in a great position to do the same. Trends don’t mean a ton in the NFL, but when one team has completely owned another like the Chiefs have versus the Broncos, there is something there. Sure, any given Sunday and all that, but what evidence do we have that this will be the game where the Broncos knock off Kansas City? At this point, Denver has been the most widely linked team to holding a fire sale before the trading deadline. There’s a good chance the Chiefs win this game big, but since it’s a divisional matchup, we’ll go the teaser route in case they need to “escape” with a win.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Dolphins -2.5 and Chiefs -1
Dolphins 32, Patriots 24 / Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
Teaser Bet
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2)
Monday October 30th
8:15pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
Sunday October 29th
4:25pm
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Lions -2.5 and Ravens -2.5
Monday Night Football will be live from Detroit, as the Lions are still adjusting to this role of primetime football and playing as favorites. They’ll take on the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that despite their seeming dysfunction has managed to go 3-4 through their first seven football games. The Ravens will travel west fresh off their impressive win versus those Lions to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale. If the Lions are a true contender, they’ll need to bounce back and assert their force against the Raiders at home. The Ravens simply need to not beat themselves, and they should be able to sneak out of Arizona with another win.
The Ravens offense was en fuego against the Lions as Lamar Jackson showed flashes of his MVP season running the ball, and tossed the ball efficiently as well. If the Ravens are hitting their stride, that could spell some serious trouble for the Cardinals defense. The positives for the Arizona would be the return of Budda Baker, and continued solid play from Zaven Collins and Dennis Gardeck. Beyond these, there is very little evidence that would point to the Cardinals being able to slow down the Ravens, as they should find success running and throwing the football. The offensive line is as healthy as it’s been, and Zay Flowers is emerging as a legitimate weapon alongside of tight end Mark Andrews. To counter this offense, you have to have a really diverse defense, and quite frankly Arizona does not have that. On the other side of the ball, is it possible we get a Kyler Murray sighting in this game? He’s back to practice and apparently looks pretty good if reports can be trusted. Chances are the team will stick with Joshua Dobbs for at least another week, but that return provides some interest in this offense for the first time in a while. After a fast start to the season, the Cardinals offense, and Dobbs have slowed a bit as teams have gotten to see some tape on the QB, who is still battling week in and week out. The Ravens defense is also coming along at the right time, which will make this another tough assignment for Arizona. With James Conner out, the team is more one-dimensional, and if Marquise Brown can be contained, there just isn’t enough between Michael Wilson and Rondale Moore to really sustain offense. A player to watch this week though is tight end Tre McBride, who will see some extra work with the injury to Zach Ertz. McBride is a poor mans Mark Andrews in a lot of ways, so let’s see if Arizona can work him into to help keep the chains moving?
Our second teaser leg features the Las Vegas Raiders taking on the Detroit Lions with what appears to be Jimmy Garoppolo back in line to start. The Raiders offense needs Jimmy G, as Brian Hoyer truthfully has no business being in the league at this point, even as a backup. The Lions were humbled a week ago, but should fare a bit better against a Raiders offense that is a little more predictable. Detroit can unleash their pass rushers, who rank near the top of the league in pressure rate against Garoppolo, without the fear of scrambling they had a week ago. Passes will need to get out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly if the Raiders want to move the football, as negative plays will be a death sentence for Las Vegas if they can’t stay ahead of the sticks. That also puts some pressure on Josh Jacobs to produce, which is something that just hasn’t happened this year. The Lions should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which will make things tough on Jacobs. On offense, the Lions should find things much softer than they did last weekend. Even without David Montgomery, Detroit will be able to move the ball a bit on the ground, which really sets up what Jared Goff and their offense likes to do. Look for continued big games from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, as well as possibly an increased role from Jameson Williams against a very vulnerable secondary for the Raiders. Controlling Maxx Crosby is always assignment number one in defeating the Raiders defense, and Penei Sewell is as equipped as anyone in the league to do so. Las Vegas simply doesn’t have enough support opposite Crosby to harass Jared Goff. When Goff has time, he’s as surgical as any quarterback in the league at picking apart defenses.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Raiders are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games playing at Detroit
– The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the Lions 6 games in 2023
– The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Cardinals are 2-4 ATS in 2023
On paper we’d look at what the Ravens offense just did to the Lions and plan for a 50-burger on the hapless Arizona Cardinals, right? Well, this Ravens squad has been known to be a little inconsistent, and often has been guilty of playing down to their competition. With that being said, these two teams are on clearly different spectrums of the NFL talent chart, and headed in two very different directions. Don’t be surprised if this game ends up closer than the spread, or you may think. However, the Ravens should be able to find a way to get a win on sheer talent alone. The teaser bet reduces the potential of a backdoor cover against the large number. We’re expecting the Lions and Raiders game to actually be quite a bit closer than what the initial reaction and spread are here also. This definitely has the feel of one of those Raiders games where they sneak up and battle hard against a better team. Much like in the other game, the Lions are truly the better team. After their drubbing last Sunday, head coach Dan Campbell should have them refocused and ready to play in a home primetime contest. The Lions may not quite be ready to battle the elite in the league just yet, but they can handle a team like the Raiders at home, even if it is a bit of a battle.
