Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 4-10
Week 4 Recap:
Our rough first quarter of the NFL season continued in week four with another red performance with our limited plays. We finished 1-2, winning our team total bet on the Carolina Panthers, but losing both of our teaser bets. That brings our teaser bets to 0-5 on the season, which seems almost unfathomable at this point. We took a pair of favorites with the Jets and the Chiefs. And even though the Chiefs toughed out a win, it was irrelevant as the Jets couldn’t get it done against the Broncos. We also were fine with the Saints being teased up to 8.5 as they played a close game, but the Bills couldn’t stay within that same 8.5 against the Ravens. Go figure, the first time the Bills lose a game by more than 7 points in nearly 4 seasons comes in the week we tease them. Back to the drawing board, yet again.
Week 5 Picks:
We really targeted in on some games that we like, as week five is really the first weekend where we think there are some obvious edges. We ended up with five posted plays, although we’ll probably be also playing things like Seattle -7, and possibly Denver laying the points as well. This week is really critical to our overall season success. We simply have to get on track here and produce a good weekend of results. Best of luck to you, and best of luck to us!
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
New York Jets (2-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Sunday October 6th
9:30am
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
Fans across the pond will be fired up to watch Aaron Rodgers and the Jets face off against Sam Darnold and the Vikings in the second international game of the year. The Jets are coming off a frustrating loss to the Broncos as the Vikings captured another impressive win holding on against the Packers. Is this a classic let down spot for the undefeated Vikings, or can they continue their winning streak to begin the season?
The offense for the New York Jets has been very hit or miss so far this season. After a rough showing against the Broncos, they’ll have another tough task against a very similar defense in Minnesota. The Vikings blitz more than any team under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, with the exception of the Denver Broncos. The Jets struggled handling that blitz and will be without right tackle Morgan Moses in this contest. How well the Jets offensive line can protect Aaron Rodgers will ultimately determine how much success they have on offense. We know the Jets want to run the football, as they’ve almost morphed into a two back system with the emergence of rookie Braelon Allen. The Vikings defense has been able to put the clamps on opposing runners, which makes this a strength on strength battle in this game. One thing Aaron Rodgers has working in his favor. Is he likes to spread the football around. He’s going to have to do that and try to find the best matchup with his receivers. The Vikings, a solid trio of corners, so it truly is finding the most open receiver. Of course, the other thing that works in Rodgers favor is his familiarity with beating the Minnesota Vikings.
There have been a lot more hits than misses in terms of the Minnesota offense. The scary part for the rest of the league is the Vikings haven’t even reached their full potential at this point in the season. Their offensive line has played well, but not spectacularly. They’ll need to have a strong game against a Jets defense that continues to be good some key injuries and absences. If there’s a mismatch in this game, it could be the Vikings running game against the Jets front. Despite boasting a very strong defense, the Jets have been susceptible to strong and particularly quick running backs. Enter Aaron Jones. This could be a game where Jones gets a lot of work against his former teammate and quarterback. Throwing the ball could be a little tougher for darling Sam Darnold against the secondary, However, he does have the best receiver in the league who can beat anyone. The return of Jordan Addison along with the emergence of Jaelin Nailer give the Vikings enough firepower as they await the return T.J. Hockenson tight end. While he hasn’t played his best football early in the season, the matchup between Sauce Gardner and Justin Jefferson will definitely be one to watch.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games
– The Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. an NFC opponent
– The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
A lot of sharp bettors are on the Jets in this game, and in a traditional sense, we get it. This is definitely a classic let down spot for an undefeated team that has been exceeded expectations, like the Vikings. The Jets on the other hand are coming off of a tough loss and need a win in a pretty big way. Realistically, this just hasn’t been a “traditional” season so far, and at the end of the day, this is just not a very good matchup for the Jets. The Vikings should be able to run the ball effectively, and Justin Jefferson can beat any cornerback in the league. On the flip side, the Vikings can contain the Jets running game, and their corners are solid enough to make life tough for Rodgers throwing the football. Remember, sharp bettors have also taken a little beating to start the season as well, so fading them here and playing the X’s and O’s is the route we’re taking. Let’s get this European W!
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Vikings 24, Jets 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Sunday October 6th
4:05pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-115)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
The San Francisco 49ers welcome in the Arizona Cardinals with their eyes set on distancing themselves in the NFC West standings. The Cardinals have shown some signs of feistiness, but have not been able to string together consistent play, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers have looked impressive as usual, despite just a 2-2 mark out of the gate, and some big injuries on both sides of the ball. This matchup offers the largest spread of the weekend with the 49ers as touchdown favorites at home.
We’ve seen some splashes from the Arizona Cardinals offense through four games, but the consistency hasn’t quite been there. They’ll try to put together four quarters of work against a San Francisco 49er defense that is a lot thinner than they were to start the season. Despite the potential for explosive plays, this Cardinals offense runs behind their running game and James Conner. With the middle of the defense banged up, Conner should have some success running between the tackles. Controlling the clock and staying on the field is great, but quarterback Kyler Murray is also going to need to make some plays in what should be a high scoring contest between these two teams. Murray has found a connection with rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr., but this offense needs someone else to step up to achieve the consistency they’re lacking. They will get tight end Trey McBride back, and he should be the obvious target number two to help keep the chains moving. Ultimately, Michael Wilson or Greg Dortsch need to provide some kind of spark as well to relieve some pressure off of McBride and Harrison. There is another potential trouble spot in this matchup, as Nick Bosa provides his usual game wrecking ability on the left edge of the pass rush. Right tackle has been a problem for the Cardinals all year, which means Kyler Murray will need to be ready to escape and utilize his legs even more than usual.
If you’re still under the impression 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is a game manager, you haven’t been paying close enough attention in 2024. Purdy has been pushing the ball down field and making big plays to lead this offense in the absence of star running back Christian McCaffrey. It’s a nice luxury to see that ability from Purdy, however it may not be as necessary in this particular game. Backup running back Jordan Mason should be in line for a good day against a Cardinals defense that simply doesn’t have the talent from 1 to 11 to contain a powerful runner. Look for Mason to get plenty of work, which will revert Purdy back just a bit to more of that game manager mold we were used to seeing. Although tight end George Kittle is still banged up, he looks like he’ll be good to go, so outside of McCaffrey, the Niners should have their full stable of weapons at their disposal. This feels like a game where the ball will get spread around to whoever is open. The scary part for Arizona is, there could be a lot of guys running open against a secondary that hasn’t graded out well thus far. One interesting nugget to pay attention to is the emergence of Jajaun Jennings, who has been the 49ers top receiving weapon to begin the season. Will Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle reclaim that role is do the Niners have a true gem in Jennings to add to the offense?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the 49ers
– The Cardinals are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 road games
– The 49ers are 17-2 straight up in their last 19 home games
Week five is going to potentially be the last time we get some “value” on the San Francisco 49ers, and could be the start of a free fall for the Arizona Cardinals. Because of the high profile injuries and mediocre record, the Niners aren’t getting quite the love they deserve based on the power they are exhibiting. The Cardinals are still getting some respect that they may not deserve, with a really poor defense, and an offense that hasn’t been quite as dynamic as many thought it could be. San Francisco has been good at home, and the Cardinals could find themselves in a tough spot of having to throw the football if they get down early. It’s not impossible the Cardinals could keep pace, as the San Fran defense is banged up, so we’re going to go the route of the 49ers team total in this game. (We’re also pairing them for a teaser at the bottom of this article). Look for another strong game from Brock Purdy, and a running game that should find consistent room for the Niners. This game could get ugly, so don’t hesitate if you like laying the points here. We’re just looking for a lot of scoring.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers Team Total – Over 28.5
49ers 33, Cardinals 23
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (2-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
Sunday October 6th
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Green Bay Packers -3 (-115)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
Head coaches Matt LaFleur and Sean McVay lead the Packers and Rams in a conference matchup with a lot on the line for an early season ballgame. The Packers are setting their sights on the Lions and Vikings in a jam-packed NFC North, while the Rams know they need to steal a couple of wins if they want to have a playoff shot when they get some of their weapons back. Both teams will be prepared in what could be one of the more explosive games of the weekend.
There’s a lot to clean up for the Green Bay Packers, but the foundation certainly appears to be there for what will be a strong offensive performance this weekend. It’s pretty apparent the team best suited to slow down the Packers, is in fact, the Packers. Green Bay will need to take care of the football and not fall into the turnover trap that doomed them last week against the Vikings. Make no mistake about it, the Rams defense is not on the same level as Minnesota, so things should be a little easier for Jordan Love in his second start back after his knee injury in week one. This game shouldn’t actually be about Love though, it really needs to be about Josh Jacobs. The new GB running back has played solidly, but has faced some pretty stout run defenses to begin the season. He gets a little softer unit this week and should find plenty of room to run if the Packers stay committed to it. The Rams aren’t necessarily great at stopping the pass either, but they can get some pressure, and it seems like their route to a win would also be by creating turnovers. The Packers will be without a pair of their top wideouts as Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will each not play, but this will force more work to Jacobs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, which could ultimately be a great thing for their offense.
When you look at the offensive line for the Rams, and the absences of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, it’s honestly a work of art they’ve been able to get any points on the board. Head coach Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are trying to tread water until they can get a little healthier offensively. Much like on the Green Bay side of the ball, the Rams best plan of attack in this game is to run Kyren Williams early and often. Williams is they type of hard runner that often gives GB trouble, and would also be keeping the Packers offense on the sidelines, which would greatly help their cause. Chances are the Packers will be loading up in an effort to slow down Williams, so Matthew Stafford is going to need someone to win their matchup or find some holes in the zones. The trio of Jordan Whittington, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell are fine ancillary pieces, but it’s been a grind relying on them to be primary targets. The Packers pass rush could ultimately determine how well they contain the Rams offense, and they do have an advantage in this area. The Rams are really just in a difficult spot where they need everything to go well and correctly to generate offense. The margin for error is so strictly slim.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Packers have covered 10 straight games vs. the Rams
– The Rams are 0-5 straight up in their last 5 games vs. an NFC North opponent
You’ve got to feel for Sean McVay and the Rams, who just can’t seem to get all of their pieces on the field together at the same time. Most teams would be uncompetitive dealing with what LA has continued to be challenged with. The Rams have stayed in most of their games without their stars over the last two seasons, but this is a tall task against a Packers team that is ripe for a big game. After the sluggish start and turnovers against the Vikings, the Packers really started to show who they can be, and should have a much easier time against the Los Angeles defense. With a week to get healthier, and knock some rust off, look for Jordan Love to have a nice game even without a couple of his receivers. The biggest difference here is the falloff between the Packers missing wideouts and their replacements is nowhere near what the Rams are facing without their top weapons. Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford will keep this game from getting completely out of hand, but at just a field goal the Packers should get to the pay window here. Look for a big game from Josh Jacobs, and a lot of points from Green Bay. If you can find a good line, you look at the Green Bay team total as well. The last time they played on turf they lit the Cowboys up for a fifty burger. Packers get this one done.
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers -3
Packers 28, Rams 20
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2)
Sunday October 6th
4:05pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Denver Broncos -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 36 (-110)
The Las Vegas Raiders will travel to Denver to face the Broncos in a game that looks a lot different than it would have just a few weeks earlier. The Raiders are in a bit of flux with the absence of WR Davante Adams, while the Broncos are developing a tough identity behind a scrappy QB and a hard-hitting defense. Although the Chiefs look to still own the AFC West, the gap has closed a tad, and these teams want their opportunity at the top.
We mentioned the New York Jets offense being up and down this season, and the same could be said for the Las Vegas Raiders through their first four contests. In game number five, it sure seems to be shaping up to be on the down side of things as the Raiders enter the contest short-handed and in a bad matchup spot. Vegas will be without top weapon Davante Adams, who would have had his hands full against Broncos All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain II anyhow. In that scenario, we may have been able to see a player like Tre Tucker or Jakobi Meyers step up, but now Surtain moves down a level to one of these players. In a blitz-heavy scheme, the Broncos are going to put a lot of pressure on quarterback Gardner Minshew, and it’s tough to imagine him having a lot to work with as far as targets go. The player that really needs to step up for Las Vegas in this game is rookie tight end Brock Bowers. The talented first year man is the one player that can win individually, and be a hot read off of blitz situations. The running game could also be challenged for the Raiders, as they’ll give the keys to Alexander Mattison with Zamir White inactive and unavailable. The Broncos have been better against the run, and the Raiders offensive line is really just not playing at a high level. When you tally all of this up, it certainly seems like it’s going to be a real challenge for the Raiders to put points on the board in a tough road environment.
If the situation seems dire for the Raiders on offense, they can take a little solace in the fact they’re not exactly facing a powerhouse team on the other side of the ball. The Broncos offense continues to grind behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix, as they search for an identity of their own. Denver has not been great running the football, and without a lot of great receiving weapons, Nix often looks like a rookie when he drops back to pass. When he drops back to pass, the health of defensive end Maxx Crosby will be something to keep an eye on, as the durable pass rusher missed last week’s contest. He should return this week, and if he’s healthy, he could be a thorn in the side for Nix and the passing game. The Raiders secondary has not played particularly well to begin the year, but they have been opportunistic and made some timely and big plays when needed. If the Raiders are going to pull off a small road upset, they may need to take advantage of the inexperience of Nix and force some key turnovers and mistakes.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders have won 8 games straight up vs. the Broncos
– The Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone under in 10 of the last 14 games for the Broncos
– The total has gone under in 11 of the last 15 games between the Raiders and Broncos
This won’t be the most exciting game of the weekend slate, so if you’re not a fan of one of these teams you may not want to watch a lot of this one. The breakdown here is pretty simple. The Raiders can’t win if they don’t score. And it’s going to be really tough for them to find offense in this game. With Davante Adams out, Patrick Surtain II will be able to lock down Jakobi Meyers or an alternate receiver for Las Vegas. From there, where does the offense come from for the Raiders? Is Alexander Mattison going to give them the running spark they need? Can Brock Bowers completely take over a game? We’re betting the answer is no. It’s really scary backing Bo Nix as a favorite, but as long as you’re getting the -2.5, that is still out there at several books, it’s worth taking a shot. We’re doubling up on this one and playing a really low under, expecting this to be a really punt based affair.
BetCrushers Take: Denver Broncos -2.5 / Total – Under 36
Broncos 19, Raiders 13
Teaser Bet
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Sunday October 6th
4:05pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Detroit Lions -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
New York Giants (1-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Sunday October 6th
4:25pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: 49ers -.5 and Browns -.5
The Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers have been the class of the NFC West early in the season. Despite both battling injuries to key players, it appears these teams will be fighting for supremacy in the division as the season progresses. In week five, the Seahawks will play host to a banged up New York Giants team, as the 49ers will welcome in one of the division’s other squads in the Arizona Cardinals. Both the Hawks and the Niners are around touchdown favorites, and contain all of the ingredients for a successful teaser bet. You can our breakdown on the 49ers and Cardinals above, here’s a quick synopsis of what we’re seeing in the Giants and Seahawks matchup.
The New York Giants haven’t had a ton to celebrate throughout the first month of the season, but one of the bright spots has certainly been WR Malik Nabers. The rookie wideout looks absolutely dominant, as the Giants appear to have landed a stud for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately for Big Blue, Nabers will not be suiting up this weekend, as he recovers from a nasty concussion he suffered at the end of the game in week four. Without Nabers in the lineup, this Giants offense is looking very pedestrian, to be kind. In addition to Nabers, running back Devin Singletary also looks like he’ll miss the contest, and New York has gotten nothing in their running game beyond Singletary. That brings us to quarterback Daniel Jones, who will now face the loud crowd, a now healthy defense for the Seahawks, and a talented secondary without a lot of help. For a QB that has been under the microscope that sure seems to be asking a lot. Can Jones use his legs to move the chains? Will someone like Darius Slayton or Jalin Hyatt step up to help Wan’Dale Robinson? In realistic terms, where does the offense come from for the Giants in this game?
The Seahawks offense on the other hand is rolling pretty nicely behind resurgent quarterback Geno Smith. Their running game is looking strong behind Kenneth Walker III and has some solid depth with Zach Charbonnet. The Giants defensive line is going to need to really play lights out against an offensive line that has performed well during their first four games. Where the Seahawks have an even bigger advantage though is in the passing game. The Giants secondary has been exposed, and with three viable weapons and tight end Noah Fant, Geno Smith could be in line for another really good showing. New York might be able to hang around for a little bit, but that defense is likely to get worn down by the running game of the Seahawks, and a possibility of being on the field a lot.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the 49ers
– The Cardinals are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 road games
– The 49ers are 17-2 straight up in their last 19 home games
– The Giants are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Seahawks
– The Seahawks are 7-2 straight up in their last 9 home games
In sports betting if you have a proven system that works for you, it’s generally going to be best to stay the course even when things aren’t working. With that being said, if this teaser doesn’t hit, it may be time to take a little break from the teaser angle. Hopefully that won’t be a bridge we have to cross as this one just has everything you could want. Two superior teams playing at home, basically just needing to win. In these matchups we actually like the favorites to cover the touchdown spread, so take that spread away and just win straight up? It’s got to happen right? The teaser winning streak starts in week five.
