Previous Week Plays – 5-2
Season Record – 45-41-1
Week 17 Recap:
Hopefully you had a Happy New Year and if you have a team they’re headed toward the playoffs. Solid week for the BetCrushers as our plays were pretty dialed in, resulting in a 5-2 record for the extended weekend. We got off to a fast start on Thursday Night Football as we had the Browns against the spread as well as in a teaser with the Chiefs. Cleveland handled business and the Chiefs also defeated the Bengals for a couple of nice wins. Our Saturday play did not work out, as we had the Dallas Cowboys team total over. That probably went out the window when CeeDee Lamb dropped the ball into the end zone in the first half. On Sunday we had the Bears against the spread and they really throttled the Falcons as we felt they would be able to do. We also read the Eagles game correctly, as we had their team total over, which cashed, but were cautious of the Cardinals covering. Wildly, they won outright in a game the Eagles really needed. We had two bets on the 49ers, one against the spread with a big number against the Commanders, and the over on their team total. It was a split, as the Niners covered with a seventeen point win, but fell a little short on their team total. With almost four minutes left in the game the Niners had a first and goal, and a TD would have gotten them over, however they were stopped and didn’t get there. A good week nonetheless to finish up 2023.
Week 18 Picks:
Week 18 has some pretty fun matchups that will ultimately determine who ends up in the playoffs and who goes home and begins their offseason. There are some games that are basically ones that have to be passed up as it’s impossible to know who will be playing, and how motivated they may or may not be. Many reputable and or well-known NFL handicappers actually love week 18 and believe there may be even more opportunities to find edges. We’re not going to argue that point, but we’re still really light with our plays. Just two games, both have some meaning, that we’re going to take a shot with.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Chicago Bears (7-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Sunday January 7th
4:25pm
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -3 (-105)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The longest rivalry in the league continues Sunday afternoon when the Bears make the familiar visit to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. Green Bay wants to set themselves up for a playoff run in the NFC, and the Bears are looking to play spoilers in a game that sounds like it means a lot to them. Both teams enter the matchup playing good football, which makes this a fun game to watch in week 18.
Justin Fields remains one of the most polarizing players in the league, but he’s certainly making his case to remain the starter in Chicago. He faces a Packers defense that temporarily quieted criticism last week after a rough stretch in the second half of the season. The Bears are at their best when they can establish a strong running game, which they should be able to do against the Packers front. The Bears offensive line has graded well as a run-blocking unit all season. After a slew of injuries to the running back position, the Bears now have their full stable of backs available and Khalil Herbert should lead the charge. Throwing the ball in Lambeau in January can be tricky and a big question will be how much the Bears trust Fields in what should be a close football game? One would guess Fields won’t hesitate to run himself as he’s done in important situations. We all know turnovers matter, but in this case they’re enormous. Fields has to take care of the football in this game.
The Packers enter the game offensively looking really solid both running and throwing the ball. The return of a healthy and rested Aaron Jones has been huge, and their offensive line continues to play well. This is going to be a huge battle between that line and the front seven of the Bears. Chicago ranks in the top three at stopping the run, which means they have a shot to slow down Jones and try to make Green Bay more one dimensional. That might not have sounded great earlier in the season, especially against Jordan Love who has been playing the QB position as well as anyone in the league during the second half of the season. It sounds better now though as the Bears pass defense continues to play well since the addition of Montez Sweat and a healthy secondary. Love has not turned the ball over during his hot play, and he will need to continue that against an opportunistic Chicago secondary. The Packers got a little bit of good news as it appears wideout Jayden Reed avoided serious injury and should be able to play Sunday. If the Bears have a weakness, it’s defending the pass in the slot and middle of the field. Thats where Jayden Reed operates the majority of his snaps. Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft will be the two players that need to make plays for Green Bay.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bears are 0-9 straight up in their last 9 games vs. the Packers
– The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites
The Green Bay Packers looked really good a week ago so if you aren’t about fading them in Lambeau in January in a big game, that is understandable. It’s also understandable as the Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games against the Bears. The NFL can be tricky like that though, particularly with “fringe” type teams. They’ll look amazing one week, and then average a week later. For us, this is more about backing a Chicago Bears team that has also been really good for the last month of the season. We’ve cashed them recently, and it seems worth a shot here getting a field goal to back them again. Justin Fields is playing about as well as he has as he continues to make the decision very difficult for the Bears front office on what direction they need to go in the offseason. If he puts a great performance together to potentially ding the Packers, that would go a long way towards his future with the organization. The Bears defense is playing really well and even though the Packers offensive line is also playing well, giving the Packers the ability to run and throw with a healthy Aaron Jones, Chicago can potentially slow this offense down. The Packers defense played great a week ago, but a tiger doesn’t simply change its stripes. Their defense overall is just not great, and if Fields is on, they can make some things happen both running and throwing. This should be a close divisional game, so we’ll take the points with the team that is playing with zero pressure and house money.
BetCrushers Take: Chicago Bears +3
Bears 24, Packers 23
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (11-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Sunday January 7th
8:20pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
The game of the week will conclude the NFL regular season when the Bills invade Hard Rock Stadium to face the Rival Dolphins with the AFC East title on the line. That’s almost tough to imagine from five weeks ago when then Dolphins held a huge advantage, but an earlier season win by the Bills have them on the verge of taking the tiebreaker with a win. The Dolphins enter the contest already assured a playoff spot, while the Bills may or likely may not be in that position entering the contest.
Handicapping the Bills offense heading into this matchup is tricky to say the least. Technically they’ve been pretty good since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but they’ve looked clunky at best in their last two wins. Some believe that is due to teams getting a read on Brady after his first few gameplans, while others believe a nagging finger and shoulder injury to Josh Allen are more responsible. One thing is for sure, the team will need to put up more points against the Dolphins than they did against a wounded Chargers team and inept Patriots offense. Another thing the Bills will need to do is throw the ball effectively. They’ve leaned on James Cook during their win streak, however that might be tough to continue against the Dolphins. Miami ranks sixth in defensive rushing EPA and have held down some pretty solid running backs this season. Assuming Josh Allen is healthy, there’s no reason they should not be able to attack through the air. The Dolphins will be without their top two pass rushers as Bradley Chubb joined Jaelen Phillips on season ending IR a week ago in garbage time with an ACL tear. Cornerback Xavier Howard also looks like he’ll miss this contest meaning Eli Apple will be targeted frequently. Can the Bills get Stefon Diggs going by getting him matched up on Apple? Or can someone else step up if Jalen Ramsey has one side locked down? Tight end Dalton Kincaid made the biggest catch of the game a week ago for Buffalo, and either he or Gabe Davis are keys to the offense on Sunday.
Offensively the Dolphins are also a little tough to breakdown entering this game, mainly due to the injury status of some key contributors. The availability of running back Raheem Mostert, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and guard Robert Hunt are all up in the air, although it’s possible all three could play as Waddle returned to practice on Friday. Waddle is huge as when he is the field the Bills will have to play exclusive zone and leave a safety with Tyreek Hill. That’s the opposite of what Sean McDermott wants to do with his defense as he loves disguising his safeties and secondary. With that still a little unknown, the Dolphins may try to lean on their running game, especially if Mostert is available. Rookie Devon Achane will be a force either way as he’s continued his impressive rookie season with explosive runs and as a receiver. The Bills got a huge lift a week ago with the return of their stud defensive tackle Daquan Jones. He commands attention and can eat up multiple blockers, allowing the Bills other rushers like Ed Oliver and the edges to play more freely and keeps their smaller linebackers clean. Buffalo has also blitzed a lot more in the second half of the season, but they may opt against that because Tua is so quick with getting the ball out of his hands. When the Bills defense has been their most dominant they’ve been relentless with pressure and have forced turnovers. If they can get them Sunday night it will go a long way to their chances of winning the game. The Dolphins need to take care of the ball and get the ball into the hands of their speedsters to capture the win and the division.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Dolphins
– The Dolphins are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 home games
This game could certainly go in a lot of different directions making it one of the trickier picks we’ve made this season. Then again, as we mentioned at the top, when you get to week 18 if you want to bet, you’re going to have to potentially try some things you may otherwise not do. This really came down to the number getting below three, which is where this game mostly opened. The Bills will know prior to the start of this game if they have a playoff spot locked up, or if they’re playing for their playoff lives. While they’re obviously still going to want to win to get the division title and a pair of potential home games in the playoffs, whether or not they’re already in or not could impact how they play. One would think without the pressure, they’d play looser and better, however maybe a more desperate Josh Allen is better? With the Dolphins having already clinched, could they potentially look to get some players more rest since they’re entering the game pretty dinged up at several positions? All great questions we’ll have to wait to learn the answers to on the final game of the regular season. What we do know is Josh Allen and the Bills have dominated the Dolphins over the past five seasons. Even if they’re not playing great, as we witnessed against the Chargers and Patriots, they still have the ability to be great when they’re clicking. An interesting note here, the bets for these sides are relatively even with the Bills taking in about 53% of the tickets, however there is a huge discrepancy in the money as over 86% is on the Bills. The heavy-hitters and sharp bettors are believing in the Bills to get this done. Hard Rock Stadium will be at least half red and blue, and temperatures should be optimal for both sides. The Bills should be able to exploit the injuries of the Dolphins. Let’s see if they do.
