Previous Week Plays – 1-1
Season Record – 38-37-1
Week 16 Recap:
We ended up picking just a couple of spots in week 16 and it ended up amounting to a whole lot of nothing as we split evenly with a 1-1 record. We were clearly on the right side across the board, but being on the right side doesn’t always equate to victories as this breakdown proves. The win we had was our two-team teaser bet that focused in on getting a pair of TD-ish spreads down for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. The Chiefs were in a bit of a fight in the first half, but eventually pulled away from the Patriots and won by double-digits. The Rams were never really threatened by the Commanders and won pretty easily, despite turning the ball over. After hitting our last two teaser bets, we’re almost back to respectability with them on the season. Our loss was with the Baltimore Ravens team total which we played at over 23.5 points. The Ravens had so many chances for this number to go over, yet when the dust settled they ended on 23, falling short by the hook. Whether it was having to kick a FG after first and goal from the 4, or opting to pass on 2 Justin Tucker potential field goals, Baltimore should have had 30 points in this game, but as we mentioned, right side, wrong result.
Week 16 Picks:
The spreads are getting tighter as we head towards the final weeks of the NFL season, but there’s still some interesting edges potentially found. We’ve got four tickets punched for the three-day weekend of football, with three of those focusing on one team we’ve identified we feel has an offensive advantage versus their respective opponent. Add in one wager against the spread between two pretty desperate teams and that’s the official card we’re going with for week sixteen. Merry Christmas to you and your family, enjoy the weekend and hopefully we’ll unwrap some covers!
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (8-6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Saturday December 23rd
8:00pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers host the Buffalo Bills on a Saturday special that means more in the standings for the visitor. The Chargers will be playing for the first time since the firing of head coach Brandon Staley and looking to rebound after a disastrous loss to the rival Raiders a week ago. The Bills need a win to keep their hot streak and playoff hopes alive in the AFC.
If it feels like the Buffalo Bills offense has looked different over the last few weeks of the season, it’s because it absolutely has. Interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady has made a serious effort to give Josh Allen some support so he doesn’t have to shoulder the entire burden, and it seems to be working. From what we’ve seen from the LA Chargers defense this year, who knows if it really would even matter. The Chargers will once again be without Joey Bosa, and outside of some prideful play from veteran Khalil Mack, this unit has been absolutely shredded all year long. They’re not particularly good at defending the run or the pass, and the Bills can do either if needed. James Cook has been on a tear, and should have another successful day running the ball, and as a receiver out of the backfield. In a dome stadium, this can also be a nice opportunity for the Bills to work on something that has plagued them, even during their impressive two game win streak, dropped passes. It’s great the Bills can now run the football, but if they want to make a run in the playoffs (if they’re able to get in), they’re going to need Stefon Diggs and others to produce more as they were earlier in the season. They also need to get Dalton Kincaid back in the mix as the rookie has been quiet, as has fellow tight end Dawson Knox since returning from a wrist injury. In this matchup, if the Bills offensive line can win, Allen and Cook should once again guide the team to a lot of offense. Keep an eye on which side Khalil Mack lines up on, as a week ago the Bills ran right towards Micah Parsons. That’s probably the same approach they’ll take with Mack, which means someone else on the porous Charger defense is going to have to make some plays if they want to slow them down.
We know Easton Stick is not Justin Herbert in terms of his skills as an NFL quarterback, however it’s too difficult to grade him based on what he’s working with offensively. Keenan Allen will miss his second straight game, and without Allen and Mike Williams, the firepower on this offense decreases dramatically. In an organization filled with holes and question marks, one of the most troubling has been the subpar play of their offensive line. This group should be better than it has been showing, and they’ll face some creative looks from the Bills defense. Buffalo will be without three defensive linemen in this game, which should give the Chargers a little more room, particularly on the interior. It hasn’t happened much, but when Austin Ekeler has been able to provide some semblance of a running game, their offense looks completely different. As usual, Ekeler will be a factor as a receiver, but the combination of he, Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller simply need to make something happen on the ground. The biggest question in this one is really who can step up and make some receiving plays against a secondary that has been playing well of late? Joshua Palmer will probably see a lot of help over the top with a safety as the Bills will be focused on keeping him from making big plays. Maybe Gerald Everett or rookie Quentin Johnston can step up and give Easton Stick some help? Even with some major injuries on that side of the ball, the Bills blitzing and disguising could provide problems for an inexperienced quarterback like Stick.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Bills are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 December games
– The Bills are averaging 27 points per game in the 2023 season
When you breakdown this football game, it’s pretty apparent one of two things will happen. Scenario number one: The Chargers will rally at home off the firing of their head coach, and the Bills will be a little flat after a huge win over the Cowboys making this a very close game. The more likely outcome is the Bills will continue their strong play against a backup quarterback and a team missing their top offensive receiver and could roll them by more than a few touchdowns. Either way, the angle that seems to fit the best here is the Buffalo Bills offense having another successful day behind OC Joe Brady versus a defense that has been run on, thrown on, and could be put in some tough situations if their offense cannot sustain drives. The team total for the Bills here feels like it should be 30.5 based on the matchup and their recent production, so it feels like a gift that there are plenty of 27.5′ marks hanging out there on various books. Rather than laying the double-digit spread, we’ll bank of the Chargers defense continuing to struggle against an offense that has routinely put up points over the last month of the season. Give us the Bills team total regardless of the outcome.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills Team Total – Over 27.5
Bills 35, Chargers 21
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Sunday December 24th
4:05pm
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 (-115)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
A battle of Florida franchises in the sunshine when the Jacksonville Jaguars take a road trip to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jaguars are on a tough losing streak and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still in concussion protocol making his availability still questionable in this important contest. The Buccaneers have an opportunity to to still capture the NFC South with the Falcons and Saints continuing to lose critical games of their own.
Anytime a franchise QB is in jeopardy of missing a big start, you have to factor that into a handicap of a team’s offense. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has had some fumbling issues, and at times hasn’t looked great, but he’s still a good player that gives the Jags a chance each week. There’s actually more to digest on the injury front with the Jaguars than just Trevor Lawrence though. This offense has not looked the same ever since wide receiver Christian Kirk was injured a few weeks back. Add in third receiver Zay Jones being noticeably hobbled with a knee injury and some inconsistencies in the offensive line, and it’s resulted in very mediocre offensive performance for Jacksonville. With a healthy Jags offense, they could have potentially given fits to a Buccaneers secondary that has been lit up on several occasions this season. Tight end Evan Engram should still find his way to some receptions, and Calvin Ridley certainly still has some ability, but overall, this offense just looks a little flat. Additionally, Travis Etienne, Jr. hasn’t looked as explosive as he did earlier in the year, and he’ll be facing a Tampa defense that always looks to shut down the run first. They should have the services of Vita Vea back to help them in this quest, and one of two things is going to happen with benched linebacker Devin White. Either someone who plays hard is going to step back in for him again, or he’s going to have gotten the message about his effort and play and step it up to play at the level we have seen him produce at in the past.
Is the world ready to admit Baker Mayfield is a solid starting quarterback in the National Football League? Sure, he may never be on the elite tier, but all the guy does is compete, lead and find ways to keep his team in football games. We’re not expecting another perfect passing game from Mayfield, but he should be in line for another strong performance. The Jags defense has been statistically one of the worst in the league over the past month of the season. This is particularly true in defending the pass. They should get CB Tyson Campbell back which will help contain Mike Evans, who is having one of the best seasons of his already Hall of Fame caliber career. Part of the Bucs hot offensive rebound is the re-emergence of Chris Godwin, who should be able to work the middle of the field here. Another area TB may be able to exploit is running back Rachaad White out of the backfield as a receiver. White has run the ball well of late, but he could be most effective as a pass catcher against the Jaguars defense. As always, the biggest key here will be who wins the battle in the trenches. When Baker Mayfield has been given time this season, he has played really good football. Can the tackles of the Buccaneers contain Josh Allen and an improving Travon Walker and allow Mayfield the time he needs to get the ball downfield?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Buccaneers
We’re not going to overreact to the strong performance from Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers a week ago, but we are backing them in this game with the Jaguars. This is more about fading a Jaguars team who has lost their swagger on defense, and is pretty banged up on offense. At full strength, the Jaguars would be the play in this game, but their offense could have some struggles again, regardless of whether it’s Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard playing quarterback. On the flip side, until their defense proves they can stop someone, it’s tough to back this team. As much as it hurts us to say as we’re loaded up on some Jaguar division futures, this slide figures to continue here again in a close football game. Unless Travis Etienne, Jr. has an absolute monster performance, the Buccaneers may help their cause in getting to the finish line in the weak NFC South with a victory against their in-state rivals.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2
Buccaneers 24, Jaguars 20
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (6-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-12)
Sunday December 24th
1:00pm
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Green Bay Packers -5 (-110)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
The Packers are coming off of a difficult loss and headed to Charlotte to face a Panthers team fresh off of just their second victory of the season. Green Bay needs a win to keep their playoff hopes intact, as Carolina is already getting a glimpse into what their next season may look like in terms of roster and organization. Which Packers team will we see this Sunday, and do the Panthers have anything left in the tank to get another home win?
The Jordan Love and Green Packer hype died down for at least a week after their disappointing performance last weekend. All signs are pointing to a good opportunity to rebound however, as they have a must-win and very winnable game against the Panthers. The Packers key to success in winning this game actually rests with their running game, which they have not gotten going consistently during this season. Carolina has a decent defense overall, but they are much better at stopping the pass than they are the run. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have to step up and give the Packers the boost they need offensively, and have little excuse not to in this game. Green Bay’s offensive line has underachieved, albeit missing some pieces throughout the year. They could get the Panthers without a couple of key players on their line as Brian Burns may miss the contest, as well as Yetur Gross-Matos. Jordan Love has done well when he’s had time to throw the football, and that will be the obvious area to watch on Sunday. The big question is whether or not his young receivers can win their matchups against the Panthers secondary? Ultimately, this is a game where the Packers need to get up early so they can lean on their running game.
All of the Bryce Young bust chatter may be warranted, but really it doesn’t seem fair to grade him with the situation he is presently in. He managed to make enough plays to get win number two last week, but it was ultimately the defense that carried them to victory. Young will face a Packers defense that has been one of the most disappointing all season. Carolina can focus on Chubba Hubbard, who has stepped up and been a nice force for their offense in recent weeks. Green Bay continues to be soft against the run, so Hubbard should continue his solid play. The weak run defense isn’t necessarily unexpected, it’s their struggles in pass coverage that have really hurt this defense. It’s somewhat understandable as Jaire Alexander has missed time, and the team dealt Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline. Regardless, they absolutely have to shut Bryce Young and the Panthers down here in a matchup even a bad defense has to win. Speaking of Alexander, he appears poised to make his return, so that should help at least a bit if he’s healthy enough to move around. One way to help their secondary is to get pressure on Young and force him to make quick throws. The Packers could do themselves a lot of favors if they can get the Panthers behind the sticks of forces turnovers. Yes, that’s an obvious analysis.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Packers
– The total has gone over in the last 3 games between the Packers and Panthers
– The Packers are averaging 22 points per game in the 2023 season
It’s hard to trust the Packers after the weak performance they put together against the Bucs, but the Panthers are on another level of bad. With that being said, we can’t lay five points on the road with the Packers, even though this seems like a game they’ll win and cover. Instead, we’re going with our second team total here. The Packers offense is a quality unit as a whole, and with their team mark resting at a mere 20.5 points, we’re going to take a swing with this one. It’s probably going to come down to the effectiveness of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but after last week’s struggles, the Pack should bounce back here. Jordan Love should rebound enough, even against a solid Panthers pass defense, at least enough to eclipse this low total. Hopefully we won’t see a monsoon rain storm again this week, and hopefully we will see another empty stadium that is predominantly filled with green and yellow jerseys.
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers Team Total – Over 20.5
Packers 23, Panthers 17
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Monday December 25th
1:00pm
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
If we told you one of these teams scored 63 points in a game this season you’d probably guess it would be the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders are the team coming off of a record-breaking performance against the Chargers, and will look to carry that momentum into Arrowhead to face another AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are still setting their sights on a strong playoff seed and will look to handle business against the team they’ve dominated during the tenure of Patrick Mahomes.
Anytime you put up a 60-Burger on an opponent you have to feel pretty good about your offense, especially when you were without your starting Pro Bowl running back. Reality could strike though for the Raiders when they face the Chiefs defense in Arrowhead. Statistically speaking, the Chiefs defense hasn’t been great in the second half of the season, but they’re still very good, and are about as healthy as they’ve been in a while. Kansas City may not have the most talented defense in the league, but they are very good at disguising blitzes and coverages. That can be tough for a rookie quarterback, and Aiden O’Connell could be put into some difficult situations, particularly if his offensive line doesn’t hold up. In what seems to be a common theme this week, O’Connell could really benefit from some help with the running game, but at the time of posting this, Josh Jacobs is trending towards not playing. Las Vegas used a committee effectively against the Chargers, but it’ll be a little different story this week if Jacobs cannot go. If the Raiders are forced into passing mode regularly, O’Connell is going to turn the ball over against this Chiefs pass rush. L’Jarius Sneed will draw one of the Raiders targets, and with the way he’s been playing he’ll pretty much erase his receiver on any given play. That will force O’Connell to throw into coverages where defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows he can turn the ball over. For the Raiders to pull the upset in this game, they need to win the turnover battle, which means the QB is going to have to protect the football. The Raiders best chance to win this game is 17-14, not 35-32.
Offensively the Kansas City Chiefs are just not one of the top offenses in the NFL anymore, and everyone, including themselves, need to accept this. That of course doesn’t mean they’re not a capable offense, and on any given week you can put some points up when you have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. This could be one of those weeks as the Raiders may be without All-Pro end Maxx Crosby, who is very much in doubt to play in this game. Crosby gutted it out against the Chiefs the last time they played, as he truly enjoys getting after Patrick Mahomes, but he was clearly not himself in that first contest. If he’s able to suit up for this game, we may see another repeat of him at far less than 100%, which greatly diminishes his overall effectiveness. Without Crosby being the ultimate game-wrecker he is, Patrick Mahomes should thrive, as he’s as lethal as there is with time in the pocket. His offensive line should be intact, and without the major threat of Crosby, it will allow some extra time for his receivers to get open. As we’ve seen all season, his receivers need that extra second to create separation, as rookie Rashee Rice has been the only player to somewhat consistently show this. Travis Kelce should also benefit as well, as his home numbers have far outweighed his road production, for some strange reason? Cough, Taylor, cough. The Chiefs also will get running back Isaiah Pacheco back, and you could argue at this point that is critically important for an offense that needs to rely on the running game more now than it ever has. The Raiders aren’t terrible at stopping the run, but they’re not great either, ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry and total yards. The combination of Pacheco potentially having a big game, and Mahomes with time in the pocket could lead to a long day for the Vegas defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Chiefs
– The Raiders are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 road games vs. the Chiefs
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 games between the Raiders and Chiefs
– The Chiefs are averaging 35 points per game vs. the Raiders in their last 10 matchups
This has the feel of a “get right” game for the Chiefs against a team they routinely stomp when they face them. Especially after the Raiders emptied the clip against the Chargers a week ago at home. A double digit spread is tough to get behind though just because of how hard the Raiders have been fighting since the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels. Instead, we’re opting for our third team total of the weekend as the Chiefs number sits at a manageable 26.5 points. That may seem like a lot for an offense that has struggled a bit and doesn’t have consistent receiving weapons. However, the Chiefs have gone over 28 points in all five of their previous matchups with the Raiders. When you add in the fact Maxx Crosby will either not be on the field, or likely slowed by injury, and the return of Isaiah Pacheco, even this version of the Chiefs offense figures to get near or over 30 points. Some short fields could help too, if the Chiefs defense can take advantage of rookie Aiden O’Connell and win the turnover battle. Let’s see if the streak of points for the Chiefs versus the Raiders can continue for at least one more matchup here and provide a Christmas gift for our over total bet.
