Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 32-26-3
Week 15 Recap:
A 2-1 mark in our thin slate that saw one bet cash that probably shouldn’t, and one that didn’t cash that likely should have. The easiest win of the card came with the over in the Bears and Vikings game. Things went exactly as we had broken down there as the Bears generated plenty of offense in what was a close divisional game leading to an easy over. Our second win was the teaser play taking the Packers -2 and Colts -1.5. The Packers took care of business on Saturday Night despite letting the Panthers hang around a bit. The Colts on the other hand were about a yard away from having Houston tie their game at the buzzer (or more likely go for two) before Pro Bowler Darius Leonard was able to knock the ball away from a fighting Keke Coutee. After a scramble in the end zone, the Colts were able to fall on the loose ball preserving the seven point win and the cover. Our loss came with our only pick against the spread as the 49ers were unable to win a game against the Dallas Cowboys and cover the three point spread. The Niners’ dug themselves into a quick 10-0 hole with two turnovers in the first quarter and despite outplaying the Cowboys overall, they couldn’t overcome a minus four in the turnover battle. Nothing earth-shattering, but another winning weekend.
Week 16 Picks:
The lines this holiday weekend are as tight as can be and it seems as though the correct sides had early movement watering down any value there. As a result we’re back on some totals and a teaser for this week’s wagers. We’ve got one team total, a couple of overs, an under and a teaser that features a favorite and an underdog. There are four days in a row of NFL football, so get cozied up, enjoy the leftover holiday trimmings and settle in for a fun and hopefully money-making weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) vs. Houston Texans (4-10)
Sunday December 27th
1:00pm
FOX
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
There isn’t a lot on the line when the Bengals and Texans face off except possibly some pride and draft positioning. The Texans are touchdown favorites despite an impressive Bengals victory in primetime against the Steelers last Monday. Will both teams be motivated to play well in a mostly meaningless football game?
The Cincinnati Bengals took it to the Pittsburgh Steelers with a power running game behind normal third down back Gio Bernard. They’ll have a much easier task against the Texans who have not stopped anyone running the ball all season. That’s good news for quarterback Ryan Finley who will make his second start after a poised and productive performance. Finley may be without Tyler Boyd at wideout, but should be able to do enough with rookie Tee Higgins and A.J. Green to keep the chains moving. It was a move that really was under the radar, but the mid-season addition of Quinton Spain on the offensive line has really helped bolster the interior of the pocket in the passing game. The Texans defense just doesn’t have the horses in their back seven to stop anyone at this point in the season.
Being named to the Pro Bowl may not seem like much for Deshaun Watson, however when you look at what he’s had to work with this season it’s really impressive. He may have some help in the running game this weekend as the Bengals are still thin on the interior of their line minus Geno Atkins and former Texan D.J. Reader. Watson could thrive if he’s able to keep the linebackers honest with the threat of a running game. The mark of quality QB play is making players around them better. Watson has certainly done this as Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen have stepped up to lead the receiving corp with veteran Brandin Cooks. The Bengals harrassed Ben Roethlisberger off the edges on Monday and will look to do the same versus Watson. It’s tough to envision them duplicating that success though as Watson has the mobility to get outside of the pocket to do damage, unlike Roethlisberger.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 Texans games
The biggest risk in betting games with teams that have little to play for is the unknown of how they will prepare and what sort of effort they will bring when the whistle blows. That could be the case here, but if it is, will impact the defenses more than the offenses. The Bengals just won their “Super Bowl” beating their arch-enemy Steelers in a game where their defense was dominant. Will their defense play with that same energy and desire in this game? Deshaun Watson has played well all season even after losing Will Fuller V for the rest of the season. The Texans should have enough firepower to get the win over Cincinnati, but it could be a close game. Ryan Finley should be able to follow up his nice performance against arguably the worst defense in the league. With the total falling under the key number of 47 we’re going to hope to see enough emotion and execution on offense to hit the over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 46
Texans 27, Bengals 22
New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
New York Giants (5-9) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Sunday December 27th
1:00pm
FOX
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
A virtual must-win game for both the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens with do battle Sunday in Maryland. After a nice run, the Giants have slowed recently, while the Ravens are showing flashes of what earned them the top seed in the AFC one season ago. The Giants will look to slow down the suddenly scorching Lamar Jackson, while hoping the return of Daniel Jones can help spark their own offense against an improving Ravens defense.
There are going to be a lot of nasty battles in the trenches with the New York Giants offensive line locking horns with the big bodies of the Ravens defensive line. It’s no coincidence that Wayne Gallman and the Giants running game have thrived with the improved play of the New York offensive line. The Ravens had a stretch of mediocre defense against the run, but it was mostly due to the absence of Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams on that front. Since their return, they have help keep their linebackers clean, allowing them to tighten up in their run defense. That’s not great news for Daniel Jones as he’ll be forced to put the ball in the air against Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the outside. With some potential stalemates in those matchups, Evan Engram needs to be a heavy part of the gameplan as he can exploit rookie Patrick Queen over the middle in the passing game. The same can be said for Jones as his best bet to move the sticks on third down could be with his legs. Whether or not Jones can play a clean game will be the deciding factor on if they can keep this game close.
The spirited play of Lamar Jackson has this Ravens offense looking scary once again. They don’t have the best matchup against this underrated Giants defense though. New York should be able to match up with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews with James Bradberry and Jabril Peppers which means they can stack the box to slow down the running attack of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Blake Martinez has been a tackling machine at linebacker for New York and he’ll be asked to contain both Jackson and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The challenge for the Giants will be how long they can hold down the explosive plays of Jackson either in the running game or the passing game. It’s very possible they can have some success, but can it hold up for the entire game?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in the last 5 Giants games
Taking unders in the year 2020 is as risky as it gets in terms of sports betting. We’ve dabbled just a bit with the idea and it hasn’t been all that fruitful for our winnings. Call it a glutton for punishment, but we’re back at it with another shot at the under in this game, even at the low total of just 44 points. The breakdown is pretty simple here for us. First, we don’t expect Daniel Jones and the Giants to do a whole lot offensively against a healthier Ravens defense. We do however expect the Giants defense to do a decent enough job hemming in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Even if the Ravens can make it to 30 points, this still has a decent chance to stay under if the Giants struggle as we’re expecting.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 44
Ravens – 26, Giants 10
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) vs. Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
Sunday December 26th
4:30pm
Amazon Prime Video
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Arizona Cardinals -5 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Injuries have proven too much for the San Francisco 49ers to overcome this season as they’ll look to play spoilers against division rival Arizona. The Cardinals are still battling for a berth in the postseason and play host in the stadium that has served as the home to the 49ers due to COVID restrictions in California.
If you’re just checking the statistics you won’t be impressed with what the 49ers have accomplished this season. When you look a little more closely, Kyle Shanahan has actually done quite a bit with very little in terms of talent. He’s got a tough matchup against the Cardinals who like to focus on stopping the run first. The Niners’ gameplan revolves around getting the running game going and using play action in the passing game. While Arizona is capable of slowing down running games, San Francisco can run against the toughest of fronts. If they can at least generate enough on the ground to keep some pressure off quarterback Nick Mullens they should do fine moving the ball. Rookie Brandon Auyik is proving that he can be viewed as a top level receiver and Kendrick Bourne continue to be a steady factor on the opposite side. Auyik is definitely a key for the Niners’ as they’ll need some big plays to counter-punch potential strikes from the Cardinals.
The fans of the Cardinals have to be feeling a lot better after Kyler Murray looked very average a few weeks ago. He’s gotten his swagger back and re-connected with his receivers, specifically DeAndre Hopkins. While he’ll have some opportunities in the passing game, Murray will absolutely need to run for the Cardinals to win this game. San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has struggled at times defending running quarterbacks. The 49ers can get too focused which leaves them vulnerable to big plays with play action, misdirection, or when blitzing. San Francisco does have two very athletic linebackers, so the coaching battle will be really interesting to watch in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in the last 5 Cardinals home games
After a bit of a lull offensively, the Arizona Cardinals have seemingly found their stride again. Much of that has to do with Kyler Murray going back to the running game and the re-emergence of DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona needs to win this game so Murray will do everything he can including using his speed to move the ball on offense. The 49ers offense actually moved the ball fairly well last week despite being down quite a few important skill position players. Had it not been for some untimely turnovers they probably would have won the game. The Cardinals defense lacks some of the speed needed to match up with the 49ers offensive scheme. The 49ers defense lacks the matchups needed to cover both the running and receiving of the Cardinals. When you look closely at the individual matchups, points should be aplenty as long as both teams, more so the 49ers, can convert some touchdowns in the red zone.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 48.5
Cardinals 30, 49ers, 22
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (11-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-8)
Monday December 28th
8:15pm
ESPN
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The New England Patriots reign of dominance in the AFC East has finally come to an end as the team was officially eliminated from the playoffs after their loss to the Dolphins. The Buffalo Bills have claimed the top spot with an improving defense and an offense that continues to develop and impress. In a reversed role, the Patriots will look to play spoilers late in the season in a week-ending Monday Night Football matchup.
The Buffalo offense has been about as hot as any in the league over the past two months and they welcome back wide receiver John Brown Monday. The Steelers debacle against the Bengals has the Bills slotted into the number two seed in the playoffs and they are focused on remaining in that position. Josh Allen will get a wounded Patriots defense, minus top corner Stephon Gilnore, who was lost to a season ending injury. Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is a hot name in potential head coaching jobs and wants to continue his impressive play calling on the national stage. He’s proven he is fine with throwing the ball 40 plus times if that’s what it takes, or running it when it’s available. He’ll need to be adaptable based upon whatever plan Bill Belichick might have to slow down the balls. The problem for the Patriots is that they are just overmatched on this side of the ball, particularly in their front seven. They allowed a thin Miami Dolphins offense to dominate them just a week ago, and that was in a game they were playing to keep playoff hopes alive. The Bills have shuffled their offensive line all season, but their tackles Dion Dawkins and Daryl Williams have been steady and should hold up fine against the Patriots pedestrian pass rush. With time in the pocket, Josh Allen should carve up the Pats and add to what has been an impressive resume all season.
There will be a lot of tough decisions for the Patriots in the offseason regarding the quarterback position. For now Cam Newton will take his second shot at the Bills after a crushing late fumble in their first game. He’ll be facing a defense that has improved as they’ve gotten healthier at the linebacker position. The Patriots have done what they can with Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers at wide receiver, but ultimately they just don’t have the weapons in the passing game to threaten the bills secondary. As they did in the second half of their game with the Bills previously, you can expect a lot of heavy packages and runs with Newton and the running backs. A.J. Klein and Matt Milano will be called on to run sideline to sideline and safety Jordan Poyer will spend most of the game in the box supporting the run defense. Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier knows what’s coming in this matchup and should have the players he needs this time to hold down Newton and the Patriots.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 13 Bills games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 Bills road games
– The Bills are averaging 29 points per game in 2020
These teams played a close game in Buffalo earlier this year as a late Cam Newton fumble ended an upset bid by the Patriots. Bill Belichick will have his team as focused as he can, but they’re simply undermanned as they have been all season long. The loss of Stephon Gilmore makes the secondary too thin to stop the variety of weapons for the Bills on offense. Buffalo is averaging over 29 points per game and have scored even better on the road than at home. Needing to stay in the 2nd seed and playing a rival on primetime should have them focused and able to score in the not-so-scary confines of Gillette Stadium. We’re going to take their team total over 26.5 as we expect them to fall near the 30 point mark in this game.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills Total – Over 26.5
Bills 30, Patriots 20
Teaser Bet
Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
and
vs. 
Chicago Bears (7-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
Sunday December 27th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Chicago Bears -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (10-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Sunday December 27th
8:20pm
NBC
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 56 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Bears -1.5 and Titans +9.5
Our teasers nearly always focus on teams favored to win by the spread of six to eight as is the most winning formula for the bet. We’re going a little off script this week as we’ve got one favorite and one underdog lined up for our teaser wager. The Chicago Bears head to Jacksonville fitting the teaser mold as 7.5 favorites and will need a win against the hapless Jags. The Titans have a tough task going into Lambeau Field and looking to steal an upset win against red-hot Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Don’t look now, but the Chicago Bears have a running game, and a capable offense. Mitchell Trubisky takes their show on the road against the beleaguered Jaguar defense that’s simply trying to get to the offseason. David Montgomery has been the most productive running back of the past month and should continue his running spree Sunday. The Bears offensive line has played well of late, and their size should wear down the Jaguars defense. In the passing game, Allen Robinson II returns to his first team and should also have a nice game against a beaten up and beaten down secondary. On the other side of the ball Gardner Minshew gets another start against the Bears opportunistic defense. While the Chicago unit hasn’t been as dominant as year’s past, it’s still formidable enough to handle Minshew and the Jags offense. Realistically, the Jags can move the ball if they don’t turn it over, but it’s hard to imagine them doing enough to outscore Chicago.
The second leg of our teaser bet calls for a whole lot of Derrick Henry going against a soft Green Bay running defense. Weather could also be an issue in Green Bay which makes Henry an even more appealing weapon as he could see 30 carries if this game is close. The Packers can match up man for man with the receivers for the Titans so Ryan Tannehill may not have his best day, however if Henry can get rolling, he won’t need to. Flipping to the other side of things, it’s a little bit of the opposite. The Titans may be able to slow down Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on the ground, but stopping Aaron Rodgers is unlikely. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level and the Titans have been torched through the air all season. Coming off of a somewhat quiet game, Davante Adams is setup to feast here. Ultimately, it’s just tough to see either of these teams having much success stopping the other.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games
– The Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars have lost 13 games straight up
The BetCrushers actually believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to cover this game against the Bears. However, how could anyone really bet on that team right now? Ultimately, the Bears should find a way to win this game as they obviously need to. The Jaguars equally need to lose this game so they can remain in pole position in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. The Packers and Titans game is lining up as a really fun one that should have plenty of scoring. If there was ever a game that should land within one score it would seemingly be this one. Getting 9.5 points with a Titans team that is playing well should be enough to get the cover.
