Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 24-25
Week 13 Recap:
When we said we were creeping towards the .500 mark we apparently really meant it. A 2-1 week brings us to 24-25 on the season, which is as close to an even mark as we’ve had since 0-0 to start the year. We had two plays on the Rams and Saints game, one on the side with the Rams, and the over total. The Rams held up their end of the bargain with the cover, but a painfully slow first 27 minutes of the game doomed the over. The second half so more of the pace and scoring we were expecting, but it simply was too little too late. Our other wager was on the Eagles getting points in a game where we believed it should have been around a pick. They did win the game outright after their offense woke up from a slow start, getting us to the 2-1 mark for the weekend.
Week 14 Picks:
It seems like a bit of a tricky slate this week when you look at some of the divisional games and some of the teams that are underdogs. We’ll opt for just a few plays for the second week in a row and not try to force things too much. Can the Dolphins really be trusted to be that heavy of favorites, even against a defeated Jets squad? We’ve got one play against the spread, a first half heavy favorite, and a teaser that we actually aren’t completely in love with. Hopefully the fact that we haven’t won the teasers we did love, this will be a bit of a reverse jinx. Best of luck to you this weekend!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (6-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Sunday December 8th
1:00pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -6 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins will return to U.S. Bank Stadium, the place he called home for many victories and even historic memories on Sunday. The Falcons and Vikings are both in need of a win, for a playoff spot for Atlanta, and seeding purposes for Minnesota. Cousins is coming off of his worst game of the season and needs a big bounce-back effort if the Falcons are going to pull off a road upset.
If you’re Kirk Cousins, the only plus side of tossing four interceptions is at least it wasn’t against your former team. After hearing it from the media and some of the hometown fans, Cousins has an opportunity to quiet things against the Vikings if he can put last week’s disaster behind him. That’s not going to be easy against the Vikings defense that just continues to play well. Minnesota has remained tough against the run, which means it might be tough sledding for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, putting a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins and the passing game. That’s not necessarily terrible however, as Cousins has the weapons that can attack the secondary of the Vikings. The main reason Cousins may have success is he has traditionally performed very well against the blitz. In fact over the past three seasons, depending on which metric you look at, he ranks right around the third best QB at performing against the blitz. The Vikings blitz more than almost every team in the league, and how well Cousins can navigate that will ultimately determine how much success the Falcons offense has. We’ve seen sporadic sightings of tight end Kyle Pitts this season, and if ever there were a game where Pitts could be a true difference-maker, this might be it.
Flipping things over to the Vikings, Sam Darnold has slipped a bit from his earlier season performances, however we don’t hear about it quite as much because his team keeps winning. That’s a tribute to the coaching staff and some of the talent around him. Darnold’s role is really that of an old school point guard, which is to distribute the ball to his scorers. He has weapons all over with the return of tight end T.J. Hockenson, as he can work the middle of the field or the boundaries with his talented wide receivers. One area the Vikings would like to be more consistent in is running the football. We’ve seen splashes of good performances, but too often the running game seems to stall out. When the running game is going, this offense is really tough to stop. The Vikings are still working through the loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and that is something to monitor throughout the rest of the season. It may not be much of an issue against the Falcons, who continue to have trouble rushing the passer. The Falcons defense is not terrible, but we’re seeing that they are basically just average across the board, which can be a bit of a problem when facing players like Justin Jefferson.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Falcons
– The Vikings have won 5 in a row straight up
We’re the nerds who are truly interested in the return of Kirk Cousins to Minnesota. Chances are it’s going to go really well or really poorly for Kirk, but we’re optimistic on his return. A four interception game doesn’t rattle a veteran like it might a younger player, so if anything Cousins should be focused in a game you know he wants to play well in. The Falcons are also trying to capture that NFC South crown so they certainly have a lot to play for in support of their quarterback. Overall, the Vikings are a better team, and they should win this game at home. We’re expecting them to. But this has the feel of an old Kirk with the Vikings game, which means it’s going to be a close, one score contest, that comes down to the wire. We’ll take the points and hope that the Falcons keep this game interesting.
BetCrushers Take: Atlanta Falcons +6
Minnesota Vikings 24, Atlanta Falcons 20
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (3-9) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Sunday December 8th
1:00pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -13 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The game featuring the largest point spread differential in week 14 is the Philadephia Eagles hosting the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles really seem to be hitting their stride and are arguably the top team in the league behind Saquon Barkley and an improved defense. The Panthers have surprisingly looked much better in Bryce Young’s return to the lineup after the early season benching. Can their improved play result in a ballgame in Philly or will the Eagles simply be too much for them to handle?
A month or so ago it was a foregone conclusion that Bryce Young was going to be done as the quarterback in Carolina, and who even knows what kind of shot he’d get anywhere else? Fast forward now, and Young has looked really solid, despite not having a ton of weapons to throw to. Sunday is going to be tough for Young however, and it’s likely we’re going to see a bit of regression with this Panthers offense. Carolina is leaning on Adam Thielen in the receiving game, which is not great against a now young and athletic Eagles secondary. The Panthers offense needs to keep Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks as the focal points, and they absolutely have to get some movement that way in the trenches. If the Eagles are able to keep the Panthers from running, their offense is going to come to a screeching halt. Expect Philly to try to lock up Thielen and give some extra run support with their safeties on that side of the ball. Normally, if you’re a heavy underdog like the Panthers you would want to run and shorten the game, understanding that punts aren’t the worst thing in the world. However, the Panthers are going to have to probably be more aggressive than they’d like, as it’s unrealistic to think their defense will be able to hold up against the Eagles ground and air attack. Carolina has done a nice job this season running against even tough defenses, and the only chance they have here is to control the ballgame that way. Easier said than done.
The breakdown for the Eagles offense we’ve mentioned is usually similar no matter who they are playing. That is certainly the case for them against a defense like the Panthers. Their offensive line is going to bully a weak front of Carolina, and Saquon Barkley is going to continue to rack up yards in his quest to be the MVP of the league. With time to throw, as the Panthers pass rush ranks near the bottom in the league, Jalen Hurts should also have plenty of time to find his targets in the passing game. That includes Devonta Smith, who it looks like is poised to return after missing the previous two games. Tight end Dallas Goedert is banged up, but this is a game he’ll want to play in. The Panthers rank 30th at defending opposing tight ends, in terms of yardage, so he could also thrive if he’s able to go. There really doesn’t seem to be any path for the Panthers to stop the Eagles, outside of potentially getting some lucky bounces. It’s never a good hope for a game plan when you’re praying a fumble lands in your hands. Unless the Eagles are completely unfocused, they should get whatever they want on offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 1-14 straight up in their last 15 road games
– The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Eagles have won 8 games in a row straight up
A bettor at Caesar’s put $3 million on the Eagles moneyline for this game, which is pretty eye-popping. We’re pretty confident in the Eagles as well as we continue to back this team. It sounds crazy, but the Panthers have actually played really decent football since Bryce Young returned to the lineup. This could be the slap back to reality game however, as the Eagles defense is really starting to gel. Couple that with a complete mismatch on the other side of the ball with the Eagles offense and Panthers defense, and there is a reason this spread is so high. There is a good chance this game does get out of hand if the Eagles are focused, but finding the first half spread at -6.5 (and if you look hard enough you can even find some -6’s on some more obscure sites), seems like a better play. The Eagles have had some slow starts to games, but they should be able to score pretty much whenever they want on offense. As long as they don’t sleepwalk through the first half, they should be able to be up by at the very least a touchdown heading into the half. If they’re not, Santa may not want to make his appearance there.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles First Half -6.5
Eagles 35, Panthers 17 / First Half – Eagles 14, Panthers 3
Teaser Bet
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
Sunday December 8th
1:00pm
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Sunday December 8th
8:20pm
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -.5 and Chargers +10
The Las Vegas Raiders, playing for pride, head to Tampa to face off with the Buccaneers Sunday afternoon. In the night game the Los Angeles Chargers will face the rival Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead looking to hand them their second loss of the season. Playoff implications range from nothing, all the way up to potentially being the top seed in the tournament and a lot in between for these teams. We’re giving an extra 6 points to a favorite and an underdog looking to mix up our teaser plays.
The Raiders gave it all they had against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Black Friday game, and really could have come away with a win. Whether you believe the refs helped the Chiefs or not, the reality is good teams win games like that, and bad teams lose games like that. The Raiders clearly haven’t quite on head coach Antonio Pierce, but after losing what was their “Super Bowl” on national TV against their rivals, how much energy are they going to bring to a cross country trip against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Add in the fact quarterback Aidan O’Connell is banged up, and so is top wideout Jakobi Meyers, and this isn’t a great spot for Las Vegas. The Buccaneers offense on the other hand has made some nice strides as they learned to play without wide receiver Chris Godwn. They’ve been running the ball extremely well behind their offensive line and rookie running back Bucky Irving. Irving has also banged up, but looks like he’ll be able to play. Rachaad White has looked really good as more of the complimentary back as well. As always, we know Maxx Crosby will bring it for the Raiders defense, but who else is stepping up on that unit?
The LA Chargers just continue to look different under head coach Jim Harbaugh, despite having arguably less talent than they did a season ago. Now they get to prove it on the national stage against AFC West perennial champ, Kansas City. The Chargers will go to battle against a good run defense without J.K. Dobbins it seems, and Gus Edwards is not the type of player that can attack the KC defense. This game is going to fall on the shoulders of quarterback Justin Herbert. He’s played great and he should have another opportunity to perform well here. The Chiefs pass defense, which started the season strong has really tailed off the last couple of months. Their pass rush hasn’t been getting home as much, and their secondary has looked very mediocre. If Herbert’s offensive line can give him time, he will be able to make some things happen with his own mediocre talent of weapons outside. For the Chiefs offense, let’s see if they look a little different now that running back Isaih Pacheco is back in the mix? The Chargers defense has been decent against the run, but this should be KC trying to impose their will a bit on them with Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. In the passing game, Patrick Mahomes has looked better the last few weeks, as having DeAndre Hopkins helps open things up for everyone. His leaning on Travis Kelce also tells you were this unit is without Rashee Rice at this point. The Chargers can rush off of the edges, which is where the Chiefs offensive line struggles. Can Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack wreck the game for them?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders have lost 8 games in a row straight up
– The Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. AFC opponents
– The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Chiefs are 9-0 straight up in their last 9 home games
Our teaser approach, which is normal Wong based, simply has not worked out for us this season. We’ll switch it up here and go with one favorite and one underdog. Give us the Buccaneers to win a game against the lowly Raiders, and give us double digit points with a Chargers team that has at least a small shot at beating the Chiefs outright. The Chiefs haven’t covered in a month a half, so are they really going to blow the Chargers out by double-digits? We need to win a freaking teaser bet, so we’re really crossing our fingers they don’t.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Buccaneers -.5 and Chargers +10
Buccaneers 26, Raiders 19 / Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
