Previous Week Plays – 1-2-1
Season Record – 27-24-3
Week 13 Recap:
The difference between a respectable weekend and losing weekend was the Cleveland Browns stomping the Tennessee Titans. Had the Titans won the game our teaser would have put us at 2-1-1 which is acceptable, as opposed to the 1-2-1 that we went, which is not what we’re looking for. Our lone win was our pick ATS with the Washington Football Team who won outright in a really gutty performance ending the Steelers perfect season. We pushed the over total in the Jaguars and Vikings game which could be looked at as a fortunate or unfortunate. The fortunate part is we got to the total by getting to a tie and heading to overtime. The unfortunate part is the Vikings had it on the one inch line and Dalvin Cook in the backfield and were going to run it in to go over the total. An unfortunate false start penalty backed them up and they decided to kick the field goal. Our loss was the under total in the Rams and Cardinals game. While the game started out at a pace that looked as though it might hold, the teams ultimately scored TDs and did not kick field goals. A late third quarter onslaught was too much to overcome with some big plays as the game ended up sailing way over. No regrets on the plays, we’ll live with the “blah” results and sharpen the knives for the upcoming weekend.
Week 14 Picks:
If you’re looking for help picking some games against the spread, this article won’t help you this weekend. We’re locked in on 3 totals, all of which are overs, as well as a teaser featuring Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks. We don’t generally subscribe to the “a team is due” theory, but we’re banking on a couple of streaking teams to regress back to the mean. We’ve got a couple of games pegged that feature some pretty bad football teams, so you’ll need to be a pretty big degenerate to want to get in on these. It’s really just about finding value and making money though isn’t it?
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (8-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)
December 13th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Tennessee Titans -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
AFC South rivals meet in Jacksonville as both the Titans and the Jaguars are coming off difficult defeats. While the loss for the Jaguars wasn’t too catastrophic as they stay in the hunt for a top draft pick, the Titans home failure at the hands of the Browns could end up hurting them down the stretch. On paper it would seem like an easy rebound game for Tennessee, however the Jaguars have been playing teams extremely close over the previous month.
Derrick Henry was held in check against the Browns, mainly due to falling behind by such a large margin in the first half. He’ll rebound well against the Jaguars, a team he’s had some of his best and most memorable performances against. The amazing thing at Henry’s career against the Jags is he tore up a really strong front seven that had multiple Pro Bowl players. This current unit for Jacksonville is anything but a stout group and the Titans offensive line should be able to have their way with them. That also bodes well for their passing game as Ryan Tannehill should have time to throw and open receivers against a thin secondary. Corey Davis has quietly been one of the top receivers in the league this year making his pairing with A.J. Brown nearly impossible to defend when you have to take into account Derrick Henry.
The Jaguars of offense will be about as healthy as they have been in recent weeks as Mike Glennon will make his third start at quarterback. He’ll have his best opportunity for a big game against a Titans team that cannot generate a pass rush at all. Even before Jadeveon Clowney was lost for the season, they were last in the league in quarterback pressures. Glennon will have time to find an under-the-radar group of wide receivers. Before that even becomes a factor, the Titans will need to deal with slowing down James Robinson and the running game. Robinson is quietly putting up a really great rookie campaign and should find some success between the tackles and on the edges. Mike Glennon, Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton have a lot to play for whether it’s for this team in the future or auditioning for someone else. If Mike Vrabel’s defense can’t contain this Jacksonville team on Sunday, it’ll be tough consider them a viable threat for the postseason despite their offensive firepower.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 Titans games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 games between these teams
The spread on this game seems about where it should be when you evaluate all of the factors with each team. The most appealing factor of all is really just the fact that the Titans are a magnet for overs this season. They can score in a variety of ways on offense, and their defense is just not very good at all. Mike Glennon and a mostly healthy Jaguar offense gives them a fighting chance at keeping this game close in what figures to be a track meet both on the ground and through the air.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 52
Titans 33, Jaguars 27
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (3-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)
Sunday December 13th
1:00pm
FOX
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
There isn’t much appeal to a game featuring a pair of teams who have only won 5 games combined, but there is one fun storyline here. Quarterback Andy Dalton heads to Cincinnati to take on his former team in the city where he spent 9 seasons and guided them to multiple playoff berths. The Cowboys are technically still alive in the NFC East as their backup QB will face a Bengals team missing their young starter at quarterback as well.
It feels like after watching every Dallas Cowboys game, that Dak Prescott has earned another million bucks on his future contract. We’ve discussed it on here before but it’s worth repeating when looking at this 2020 Cowboy team. Without a game changer like Prescott, this team needs all of it’s pieces together to get any offense going. With Zack Martin headed to IR, the team will once again be without it’s big three on the offensive line, meaning Andy Dalton and Ezekiel Elliot are going to be a little limited. The key word in that sentence is “a little” though as they have a favorable matchup against the Bengals defense. Look for the Cowboys to really establish the running game early and unlike in some earlier weeks, they should be able to get it going. Elliott actually played fairly well against the Ravens, and he and Tony Pollard will love finally having a little space to operate. The really fun part of this game for the Cowboy offense will be watching Andy Dalton in his return to the Jungle. It’s cliché to predict a revenge game, but Dalton is going to play well on Sunday. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup will make some catches, but keep your eyes on rookie CeeDee Lamb, and tight end Dalton Schultz. The Bengals have struggled covering opposing tight ends, and the combination of weapons against this defense will be enough for Dalton to remind the Bengals of the good things he did in his time in Cincy.
The Bengals offense looks anemic since the season-ending injury to rookie Joe Burrow. The good news if you’re a Bengals fan is that it proves just how potentially good Burrow was and can be moving forward if he can recover from his brutal knee injury. The good news for this weekend is no matter who is playing quarterback, Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen, they get to face the Dallas defense. Troy Aikman said it best earlier this week when he said, this group is just flat out not very good. Whether that’s coaching, a lack of talent, or both, it’s clear they can’t stop anyone. It’s a bit of weakness versus weakness as the Bengals interior of the offensive line will try to outmuscle the interior of the Cowboys defensive line. Someone will need to win that battle, and it’s likely that both sides will find some good and some bad in this game.
Something just doesn’t seem right with the Arizona Cardinals offense since some big games early in the season. Kyler Murray has not looked great throwing the football, as his play could be described a bit as feast or famine. His explosive running plays have tapered off a bit too, which is worth noting against a fast and tough Rams front seven. Rams DT Aaron Donald is actually not the key in this game, although he’ll of course look to put his mark on the game. With Murray’s athleticism, if Donald can move him out of the pocket it’s going to come down to the linebackers of LA to contain him and not let him make those back-breaking runs. The best matchup of the weekend is DeAndre Hopkins versus Jalen Ramsey. While Hopkins has cooled off after a fast start, Ramsey is playing the best football of his young All-Pro career. He likely won’t follow Hopkins everywhere, but should see a lot of him throughout the game. Perhaps the biggest question mame is whether or not Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds can generate enough of a running game to impact the coverages used in the passing game?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in the last 3 Cowboys games
– The Bengals are allowing 26 points per game this season
Both of these teams have been hampered by major injuries, and in some cases, a lack of talent at key positions. We witnessed how bad the Dallas offense is in primetime, so even the sputtering Bengals offense should be able to put some points up. That means Dallas is going to need to score, and against the Cincinnati defense they’ll be able to do that. The weapons on the outside for the Cowboys should make some plays and Ezekiel Elliott will have a shot at a rare 100 yard game. Andy Dalton knows this stadium and this defense and is going to want to play a sharp game. He will, and the Cowboys offense will look as good as it has since Dak Prescott went down for the season.
BetCrushers Take: Cowboys Total – Over 23.5
Cowboys 27, Bengals 20
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
Monday December 14th
8:15pm
ESPN
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Through week 13 of the season the Cleveland Browns have leapfrogged the rival Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and look to defend their lead in the wild card positioning. The Ravens took the wood to the Browns in their first matchup this season, but these teams have been trending in opposite directions since then. With their COVID-19 situation seemingly mostly behind them, the Ravens hope to string together a second win in less than a week, as the Browns want to prove they’re a legitimate contender in the AFC.
The reigning league MVP looked much like he did a year ago dismantling the porous Cowboy defense on the ground and through the air. Baltimore needs to get off to a good start establishing the running game so they don’t need Jackson and his receivers to be difference makers. The good news for the Ravens is they will have their best weapon back as Mark Andrews is off of the COVID list. If they’re needing to throw however, this game will already have gotten away from them. They need to attack a mediocre Browns run defense with their three-headed monster of J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. The pressure on the offense will sit with left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. and left guard Bradley Bozeman who have the task of containing Myles Garrett. Garrett likes the bright lights and is rested and eager to get back to terrorizing opposing quarterbacks and running backs in the backfield. Weather could play a factor here as well as fresh off of his shocking missed field goal, Justin Tucker could be a weapon as usual.
Who would have thought the Browns would have the advantage on offense in this matchup this year? It’s pretty simple why, actually. The Browns have the best offensive line in the league, at least in our opinion. Can you imagine Baker Mayfield behind the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line? He looks good in Cleveland as teams have to account for Nick Chubb, and he has a clean pocket as much as any QB in the league. While the Ravens defense is piecing itself back together, Calais Campbell is still trying to work his way back from injury, and their secondary has underperformed due to lack of a pass rush. As is usually the case, expect Chubb and Kareem Hunt to do their usual dirty work running the ball between the tackles. Ezekiel Elliott showed how vulnerable the Ravens are against the run with a much inferior offensive line. Mayfield will be tested more against Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, but as long as he doesn’t make big mistakes, he should play fine as he’s done well both at home, and in primetime.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Browns
If you’re a fan of the NFL, this is a pretty exciting Monday Night game for several reasons. Personally, we want to see if the Browns are for real in their second crack at the Ravens at home in primetime. Baker Mayfield should play well and the key to this game will be who can get off to the faster start. If Cleveland can get up early, the Ravens will be forced to throw, which we know is not their strong suit. If they can get up early, it’ll be a really fun game. We’re going against the trends a bit as these teams have shaded toward under totals. With a total sitting at 47, despite a lot of rushing attempts by both teams, we’re going to take a swing at the over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 46
Ravens 27, Browns 24
Teaser Bet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Sunday December 13th
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-115)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Sunday December 13th
1:00pm
FOX
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Chiefs -1 and Buccaneers -.5
As seems to be the case each week, we’ve found two really good quarterbacks that we are trusting to simply win a football game against a lesser opponent. The Kansas City Chiefs high-powered offense will have a stiff test against a surging Miami Dolphin defense, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hope a bye week will help them get on track against a feisty Minnesota Viking squad. Both the Vikings and the Dolphins have been hot against the spread and in the win column since November. They’ll face their biggest tests to date on Sunday.
Strength versus strength as Mahomes and company will take their shots against Xavien Howard and the Dolphins defense. Kansas City continues to roll along despite continued absences on their offensive line. If any team can help exploit that it’s the Dolphins who rotate a corp of solid pass rushers and run stuffers. Miami has shut down some good offenses this year and is clearly a top 10 unit in the league, if not top 5. They haven’t faced the Kansas City Chiefs though, and that can be a humbling experience even to a group that’s playing confidently and flying high. It’s the other side of the ball that may be a problem for the Dolphins as Steve Spagnuolo should have a good plan against rookie Tua Tagavailoa. After a slow start last weekend, Tua came on to post a good stat line in the team’s win. No one will mistake the Chiefs defense as an elite unit, but they do have some players, namely superstars Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieau who could make the rookie look like an actual rookie.
Don’t look now fans, but Kirk Cousins is on one of his streaky runs where he is playing really well. Not to make it sound easy, but when you have Dalvin Cook and a pair of weapons at wide receiver, how hard can it really be in the NFL? Here is where things get tricky this weekend for Cousins and the Vikings. Dalvin Cook has slowed just a bit in recent weeks and won’t find his usual success against the stout Buccaneer run defense. Tampa can absolutely be exploited in their secondary as Jared Goff showed, so if Cousins can stay hot, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson could have big games. As always with Cousins, keeping him clean in the pocket is a key so watch the Jason Pierre-Paul and Riley Reiff matchup closely. Flipping things over, this game is all about Tom Brady and the passing game for Tampa. Ronald Jones II will get his touches as will Leonard Fournette, but really how Tampa fairs here comes down to if we get HOF Brady, or duck for cover Brady. There are two things working in the Bucs favor in this game. First, Brady and Arians have had extra time to rest and prepare a gameplan which should help them tremendously. Second, is Brady should find time in the pocket as Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet are back protecting his blindside against an underwwhelming pass rush for the Vikings. It feels weird saying it, but whoever can take better care of the ball between Cousins and Brady will be able to win this football game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Buccaneers
– The Chiefs are 16-1 straight up in their last 17 games
– The Chiefs are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 road games
Trends will tell you that the Vikings and Dolphins are the correct sides in these games. With two teams playing as well as they have been, getting a chunk of points is pretty appealing if you’re playing against the spread. We’re taking the teaser approach of taking favorites between the 6 and 8.5 margins as that is the highest percentage of wins with teasers. As always we like having great quarterbacks, one that is absolutely rolling, and the other coming off a rough performance needing a bounce back. There’s a lot of excitement in Miami as well there should be, but this seems like a situation where they get slapped back to reality a bit. The Chiefs can score on any defense, so the Dolphins strength will be nullified. It’s unlikely Tua will be able to outduel Mahomes in their first matchup. In the other game, it just comes down to the Bucs slowing down Dalvin Cook and making Kirk Cousins beat Tom Brady, who’s had extra time to prepare. These games should be close, but the favorites should find a way to win.
