Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 22-24
Week 12 Recap:
Another weekend of mixed results and mediocrity as we split our four wagers to keep us below .500 on the season. We had three games against the spread, and went 2-1 on these. The Broncos fought off a furious backdoor for a cover, and the Eagles handled business against the Rams. Our loss was not only an ATS loss, but straight up, as somehow the Commanders could not beat the Cowboys on their home turf. Our season of teaser misery continued with another loss. The Lions portion was an easy win, but the Texans couldn’t get it done against the Anthony Richardson Colts squad. That really felt like a high probability teaser, but what else can we say? The bet that used to be such a cash cow for us has absolutely beaten us down in 2024.
Week 13 Picks:
Speaking of 2024, we’re running out of time to turn a profit on this NFL season. There’s no need to go crazy at this point, as it’s really just about trying to string together some nice victories. After some hefty Turkey Day wagering, that not surprisingly saw us about even on the day, we’ve got just a pair of plays against the spread for Sunday, with a total in play. Can road teams steal some covers, if not some straight up wins?
Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (5-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
Sunday December 1st
4:05pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams are seeking to start another winning streak Sunday when they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. After rough stretches in the middle part of the season, both teams have played better over the last few weeks. While this can’t be considered a “must-win” game for either team, it can absolutely be called a critical game. The winner is still clawing for the playoffs, as the loser will be digging an even deeper hole headed into December.
If you look at both the film, and the box score from a week ago, you would say the Rams had a pretty underwhelming offensive performance against the Eagles. Factually, they gave the Eagles defense more than most opponents have all season. More importantly, they have a much easier hill to climb when they face the Saints defense on Sunday. The Saints have struggled mightily against the run over the last seven weeks, ranking just next to last in the league. Rams running back Kyren Williams has had some tough matchups, stacked boxes, and injured offensive linemen this season. With the return of tackle Rob Havenstein and the soft New Orleans D, this will be one of the first games where he should have plenty of room to run, and could end up being his best game of the season. The Rams should also be in a pretty good spot when they need and want to throw the football as well. The Saints do not generate a great pass rush as a team, and with time, Matthew Stafford is still one of the top quarterbacks in the league. With his offensive weapons healthy, he’ll have some nice matchups to exploit in the Saints secondary. Having traded away Marshon Lattimore, and with Paulson Adebo in injured reserve, both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp should find plenty of room to roam. The Saints are going to need to try to generate extra pressure, which means there could be some explosive plays from the Rams wide receiver group.
Give some credit to New Orleans for finding ways to get points on the scoreboard without a lot of sizzle at the wideout position. The team will once again be without their top two receivers, relying on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Cedrick Wilson and Mason Tipton in the passing game. That trio isn’t going to strike a lot of fear into defensive backs, but it’s only fair to point out MVS has essentially been the biggest play receiver of the previous two games in the entire league. We wrote before that couldn’t continue after the first game, and he got loose again. Can he do it a third time? The Rams secondary has given up it’s share of big plays, but it really is going to come down to how well the Saints offensive line can block in passing situations. After a fast start to the season, Derek Carr has settled back in, however his splits when pressured and not are starting to stretch out. The Rams defense is built on bringing pressure with their top picks from the past two draft classes. If they can attack a suspect Saints offensive line, their secondary should hold up against the previously named receivers. There are two things the Saints do have going for them in this game though. Alvin Kamara being the biggest. Kamara is playing as well as he ever has, and we saw a week ago how vulnerable the Rams can be against good running backs. Don’t expect that kind of outing from Kamara, but he should be able to get some consistent yardage or them to keep the sticks moving. The other area the Saints always have to exploit is with do-it-all playmaker Taysom Hill. It’s no secret when Hill is getting snaps this offense his moving. He keeps defenses on their heels with his ability to run, throw and catch. Hill is the perfect counter-attack against the Rams aggressive front four.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 games for the Rams
– The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 home games for the Saints
With the pressure off the New Orleans Saints are actually playing some decent football. Somehow Derek Carr is making it work despite an absence of quality weapons. The Saints should be able to continue some scoring with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill in the mix, but do they have enough on defense to stop the Rams? The lack of a pass rush for the Saints should allow Matthew Stafford to thrive with his receivers, and Kyren Williams is due for a monster game against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. The Rams have done surprisingly well in cross country contests, so that shouldn’t factor in too much here. The Rams know they need to win to keep pace in the NFC West and the conference in general. We’re expecting a lot of scoring, and a Sean McVay road win for the fabled road favorite cover in the NFL. Square ATS, check. Square over, check.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 / Total – Over 49
Rams 29, Saints 24
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
Sunday December 1st
4:25pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
The game of the weekend features the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles in a road contest against the powerhouse Baltimore Ravens. Veteran running backs and versatile quarterbacks lead two of the the most explosive offenses in the league. Could it be the defense that is able to step up that determines the winner of this important contest?
Saquon Barkley has elevated the Eagles offense to make it not only one of the best, but also one of the most consistent in the league. He just makes quarterback Jalen Hurts and everyone else better when teams have to account for him. Sunday afternoon will be a big challenge for Hurts and this offense as they may not be able to fully lean on Barkley against the Ravens run defense. Sure, Barkley is as sure of a thing as you get right now, but he’ll be facing the top run defense in the entire league. The Ravens are one of few teams who can match the strength up front with their defense against the Eagles talented offensive line. It will be a true battle in the trenches, but probably not one that either team “wins”. Figure Barkley makes a few plays, and the Ravens do a pretty good job of keeping him contained. If that ends up being the case, pressure shifts to Jalen Hurts and the passing game. Wide receiver Devonta Smith missed last week with a hamstring injury, and has been a limited practice participant this week. If there is ever a game where the Eagles need Smith, it’s this one against a Ravens team that has gotten beat down the field with regularity. Sure A.J. Brown can still be a huge factor and Dallas Goedert will need to show up as well, but Smith might be the most important injury of the weekend to keep an eye on. It will also be interesting to see how much Jalen Hurts can be a factor with his legs as he’s sure to hear and see a lot about Lamar running with the football on the other side.
When the Ravens offense is clicking, they are really clicking. Sure, Lamar Jackson has been great this season, but this offense begins with running back Derrick Henry. The Eagles will attempt to do what most have been unable to do this season, which is keep Henry at bay without committing extra personal. They have the big bodies in the interior of their defensive line, if their linebackers can shed blockers and make things happen. If they’re able to do this, and that’s a big “if”, they can focus on Lamar Jackson and keeping him from making the electric plays he’s been making all season. The Eagles do have a bit of luxury as their rookie cornerbacks have been playing unbelievably well, especially over the last eight games. Quinyon Mitchell is looking like a true lockdown corner, and Cooper DeJean keeps improving and grading out higher each week. The Ravens will need to utilize Mark Andrews, and maybe even the lately invisible Isaiah Likely if they can’t get Zay Flowers or their other receivers open. We mentioned Devonta Smith for the Eagles, but the “X” factor for Baltimore could be running back Justice Hill. He’s become one of the best receiving threats out of the backfield, and if there is an area the Ravens want to attack with it could be right here. One other thing to mention, the Eagles were already a little questionable on the pass rush side of things to begin the year. With Bryce Huff on injured reserve, and Brandon Graham now done for the season, their pass rush rotation is getting really thin. Do they have enough to get after Lamar with the big tackles of Baltimore holding things down?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Eagles have won 7 games in a row straight up
– The Ravens are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
This should be a really fun game to watch between the star power on display, and the importance in the standings. This honestly feels like a game that could go either way, but should be really competitive no matter who ends up with the win. When we’re seeing a game as a coin flip, we’ll go ahead and take the key number field goal. That becomes even more of an automatic play for us because we’re bigger believers in the Eagles than we are the Ravens. Both offenses are great, but the Eagles defense is also pretty solid. The same can’t really be said for the Ravens defense, particularly defending the pass. One really interesting thing to note as well in a game with a field goal spread. Jake Elliott and Justin Tucker, who have been two of the game’s best field goal kickers over the last handful of years, have both struggled from 50+ so far this season. In a game that should be close, this is absolutely something that could tilt the game in one direction or the other. Bet at your own risk fading the Baltimore Ravens, but we’ll take the points with the Eagles in this one.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles +3
Eagles 28, Ravens 27
