Previous Week Plays – 3-0
Season Record – 26-22-2
Week 12 Recap:
The weeks keep getting more interesting as games are shuffled, players are in and out of lineups, and point spreads fluctuate rapidly. The casinos cleaned up this week as the heaviest bet teams did not cover. Only the Dolphins and Seahawks, and some late money on the Saints got the public cashing in. You’ve probably noticed that the BetCrushers have rarely even tangled against the spread this season as we’ve found alternative wagers that we have believed give us an advantage. That proved true this last weekend as we not only swept our card to go 3-0, but did it with relative ease as all of our plays got off to quick starts and were really never threatened. It started with an onslaught of points between the Colts/Titans, which nearly hit the total in the first half. Getting 4 points (or 3.5) with the Panthers leading most of the game was really never in doubt. And our teaser featuring Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson saw pretty easy victories for their respective teams getting that paid. As always, with a nice streak, the goal is to stay focused and see if we can stay hot in the upcoming week.
Week 13 Picks:
Not to sound too repetitive but these lines are seemingly more and more difficult to play, or at the very least, scary to play. It’s so tempting and “sharp” to want to wager on teams like the Giants or Jaguars getting double digits in games that they should cover. Who really feels comfortable putting their money on the line with teams like that, even with the huge point spreads? As has been the case since early in this tumultuous season, we’re continuing to find alternate angles to attack, sticking with teasers, over/under totals and team totals. We’ve got on ticket against the spread this week, two totals, and a teaser bet locked in as we hope to keep our mini-streak going.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
December 6th
1:00pm
CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -10 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
Despite a roster that was lacking talent to begin with, and has since been riddled with key injuries, the Jacksonville Jaguars have actually been pretty competitive in recent weeks. They’ll head to Minnesota to take on a Vikings team that had a dramatic comeback win against the Panthers to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings should be able to move the ball offensively, can the Jaguars do them same?
For the second week in a row Mike Glennon will lead the Jaguars at quarterback after a solid, if not spectacular start in week twelve. Glennon got some help from rookie James Robinson who continues to be the featured piece of this Jaguar offense. The Vikings defense will key in on Robinson which will leave their short-handed and less than stellar secondary somewhat exposed. Glennon was able to move the ball despite not having wide receiver D.J. Chark available, a player the team hopes to have back this week. In order to for Jacksonville to score in this game they’ll have to make plays through the air. Robinson will get his touches, but the Vikings have done a decent job bottling up runners. Patience will be important for Jacksonville as keeping the Vikings offense off the field is certainly a good plan. Expect Robinson to get a lot of first down carries as they attempt to stay ahead of the chains.
Minnesota was able to lean on Kirk Cousins against the Panthers in a game where Dalvin Cook was not his usual dominant self. Cousins has actually played well of late and this week he gets his favorite target Adam Thielen back off of the COVID-19 list. Rookie Justin Jefferson stepped up with two big scores, but this offense is clearly harder to defend with both targets available for Cousins. The Jaguars secondary is down two starters and their best pass rusher Josh Allen was just added to IR. That means Cousins should be able to feast through the air. He may not need to however, as Dalvin Cook should regain his previous form and be over 100 yard again. The Browns shredded Jacksonville on the ground, and against a similar offensive line, and running back, it’s safe to assume that will happen again.
Key Stats and Trends
– The over is 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 home games
This is a bit of a conflicting bet when you evaluate the line. It would appear that the smart money would be to take the huge point spread with the Jags as they’ve played teams close, outside of one beat down at the hand of the Steelers. There is certainly the possibility of the backdoor being left open for Jacksonville to get the cover. Doesn’t this just seem like one of those games where Kirk Cousins excels and the Vikings roll though? We opted to play the total which is set at a key number of 51. Minnesota should get over 30 points, and we toyed with taking their team total. Based on recent weeks though it seemed to make more sense to play the overall total though as the Jags should be able to into the 20’s and possibly get a late score or so. As is often the case with overs, it may take the full 60 minutes to get there, but at the end of the day, with these defenses, it should make it.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 51
Vikings 30, Jaguars 24
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (7-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
Sunday December 6th
4:05pm
FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Los Angeles Rams -3 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
A very important NFC West tilt with the Rams visiting Arizona looking to extend their one game advantage over the Cardinals. After a hot start, the Cardinals haven’t looked crisp over the last month. Some of the league’s biggest stars will be on display, and the team that can make the most plays or avoid the big mistakes should come out with the win.
When this version of Sean McVay’s Rams offense is rolling, it really rolls. The problem is they go through spurts where they can’t seem to get their playmakers going and Jared Goff looks really bad. The good news for them this Sunday is McVay and this offense has had some nice recent success against the Arizona Cardinals. While rookie linebacker Isaiah Simmons’ recent strong play has been a boost to the Arizona defense, they’ve had trouble all season playing consistently. Coming off of an “off” week, look for Cooper Kupp to get a lot of work in the slot as the Rams will try to get Budda Baker off of the line of scrimmage and in more constant pass coverage. The Rams have a good opportunity with the defensive line injuries of the Cardinals to really ramp up their running game, and if they can do that, Goff should perform well. It’s no secret Goff is at his best when he’s using effective play action. Despite the injury to left tackle Andrew Whitworth, the Rams have done a nice job with their pass blocking the past couple of weeks. It’s not the highlighted WR/CB matchup of the game (we’ll get to that in a minute), but veteran wide receiver locking up with Patrick Peterson should be a fun match and the winner of this will have a big impact on the winner of the game.
Something just doesn’t seem right with the Arizona Cardinals offense since some big games early in the season. Kyler Murray has not looked great throwing the football, as his play could be described a bit as feast or famine. His explosive running plays have tapered off a bit too, which is worth noting against a fast and tough Rams front seven. Rams DT Aaron Donald is actually not the key in this game, although he’ll of course look to put his mark on the game. With Murray’s athleticism, if Donald can move him out of the pocket it’s going to come down to the linebackers of LA to contain him and not let him make those back-breaking runs. The best matchup of the weekend is DeAndre Hopkins versus Jalen Ramsey. While Hopkins has cooled off after a fast start, Ramsey is playing the best football of his young All-Pro career. He likely won’t follow Hopkins everywhere, but should see a lot of him throughout the game. Perhaps the biggest question mark of this game is whether or not Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds can generate enough of a running game to impact the coverages used in the passing game?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 Rams games
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 games between these teams
It’s very tempting, and possible that we’ll put a small wager on the Rams in this game as they should find a way to win this game. It’s definitely a bit of a “square” spot though, so we’re following some trends here and playing the under total of 49 instead. The Rams stout defense routinely has them staying under (7 of their last 8), and this seems like another game where they will slow down their opponent. Even though the Cardinals defense has not been great, they do matchup fairly well with the Rams. If they can avoid giving up big plays, they should keep LA down on the scoreboard as well. Yeah, we know that taking an under in the year 2020 is mildly crazy, but this is a spot where points should be at a premium.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 49
Rams 24, Cardinals, 22
Washington Football Team vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Washington Football Teams (4-7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)
Monday December 7th
5:00pm
FOX
Heinz Stadium – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
The records aren’t close when Washington takes on the Steelers on a moved to Monday afternoon ballgame. Despite the record discrepancies, both teams have their eyes set on a division title. The Washington Football Team hopes to put the first blemish on the Steelers undefeated record and take control of the NFC East.
Don’t look now, your Washington Football Team may be the most complete in the NFC East as their offense is slowly catching up with what has been a solid defense. The forced playing of Alex Smith gives this team some stability at the position that they were lacking with Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen. Smith will need to push the ball down the field in this game as their running game could struggle against the Steelers. It appears the Ravens are the only team that can figure out how to move the ball on the ground against them. The good news for Washington is Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are both very good receiving backs so if the running game does stall, they can still effect the game with short passes. Something else playing in Washington’s favor is the Steelers will be without two of their star defensive players as Bud Dupree unfortunately joined Devin Bush on IR after a late torn ACL in their Wednesday game. Pittsburgh has solid depth at the position, but you simply can’t replace an edge rusher like Dupree who is the perfect compliment to T.J. Watt. The Steelers cornerbacks have played pretty well this season, but you have to wonder how much of that is due to the pressure of Watt, Dupree and company? It will be really interesting to see how the team looks with their absence against an improving Washington offensive line.
The Steelers may be 11-0 with no apologies needed at all, yet this could be the biggest test of the season for their offense so far. Washington has been leading the league in pass defense most of the season, and is capable stopping the run as well. Make no mistake about it, it’s also Washington’s biggest test as well as the Steelers make things really difficult to defend marching out four good wide receivers and the athletic Eric Ebron at tight end. The key will be getting pressure quick on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who has been near the top of the league in getting the ball out of his hand quickly this season. There are some absolute studs in the trenches for Pittsburgh and Washington in this game, if you like physical football, this is the game for you.
Key Stats and Trends
– Washington is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 December games
A handful of folks have made bold predictions of the Steelers dropping their first game this weekend. It’s not a terrible take, however it seems unlikely that they’ll lose this game. What does seem possible is Washington making this a defensive slugfest and keeping this game close. The Steelers may be slightly overvalued, while Washington is still slightly undervalued. The records would suggest this is a 9 or 10 point spread, while realistically it seems like it should be about a 5 point spread. It seems like in a grinding type game like this, getting 7 points is a bit of a gift. Unless the Steelers get off to a really fast start, you can expect this game to stay within one score.
BetCrushers Take: Washington Football Team +7
Steelers 23, Washington Football Team, 19
Teaser Bet
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
vs.
and 
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (8-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-3)
Sunday December 6th
1:00pm
CBS
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Sunday December 6th
4:25pm
CBS
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Titans +.5 and Green Bay -2.5
Two quarterbacks who have been playing well all season have home games against two quarterbacks who have had their issues as the Browns take on the Titans and the Eagles face the Packers. While the quarterbacks are somewhat split, three of these teams have strong resumes, and the Eagles want to stay in the hunt in the feeble NFC East.
If you like physical running, the Browns and Titans is a game you won’t want to miss as Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry both could feast. The Browns and Titans are both at the bottom of rush defense, and Chubb and Henry have been electric in recent weeks. Expect to see both hit the century mark and receive a lot of carries when their respective teams are on offense. The difference in this game will come down to the quarterbacks and wide receivers, an area where the Titans have the advantage. These teams are eerily similar so it will seem a bit like watching the same thing on both sides. In a game like this special teams could end up playing a big factor as a crucial kick or mistake could make the difference.
Philadelphia Eagles fans, and NFL fans in general are not pleased with the performances of Carson Wentz. It’s been mentioned that he seems a bit “lost”, missing open receivers, holding the ball, and turning it over at a league high rate. He has a chance to rebound here if two things can happen for Philadelphia. First, they need to get Miles Sanders running well against a Packer defense that can struggle defending opposing runners. If they can keep the Packers honest, it will really help Wentz ability to have enough time to find his receivers. The other area they’ll need to address is matching up with Z’Darius Smith who could be a game wrecker if they cannot get him blocked in the passing game. It’s easy to play armchair coach and quarterback, but doesn’t if feel like the Eagles need to lock in on who they want their primary receivers to be? It seems like there is way to much shuffling around of their weapons in-game, and there just isn’t enough continuity and rhythm. For the Packers, this game is going to have to put a bit on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Fortunately, that’s not a bad spot to be in if you are a Packer fan. The Eagles haven’t been quite as good stopping the run this season, but they’re still pretty good at holding teams down. Aaron Jones may not have a big day, but he and Jamaal Williams can still be a factor in the short passing game against one of the weaker linebacker crews in the league. Ultimately, it’ll come down to Rodgers working Davante Adams and the recently returned Allen Lazard down the field to win this game. Robert Tonyan could have a big game as Philly has had issues with opposing tight ends. The battle of all battles here will be with the Packers highly rated offensive line knocking heads with Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and company to get after Rodgers.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs AFC opponents
– The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Browns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games
– The Titans are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games as a favorite
– The Packers are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home games
– The Eagles are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
Ironically our teaser bet this week nearly mirrors last week both in terms of the points and with the Packers playing an inferior team at home. It’s possible the Packers could blow out a struggling Eagles team, but don’t be surprised if this game is a lot closer than a lot of people think it will be. While the Eagles could put forth a game effort, it’s tough to picture Aaron Rodgers not coming away with a win at home. The Browns and Titans could also be locked up in a close game, but the same thing holds true here. Will Baker Mayfield be able to win a difficult road game with the spotlight on him? Throughout his career the answer has been no. If this one ends up being a tight game, we’ll trust Tannehill and the homefield over Mayfield on the road. Last but not least, we’re playing the statistically highest hitting 6 point teaser, which is taking home teams and teasing them to under three points. Let’s hope both history, statistics, and the matchups fall in our favor.
