Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 16-18
Week 10 Recap:
We were technically 0-0 for our published week 10 plays, as our schedule had us unable to publish an article on time. As a result, we’ll do a quick week 9 update, which saw us finally have a strong week, going 5-2 on our seven plays. As disgusting as it is, that brings us within striking distance of that mythical .500 mark and just a little further from some profit on the season. It brings us no joy of course, to be in that situation heading into week eleven, but after a horrific start to the year, could there be some light at the end of the tunnel?
Week 11 Picks:
We’ve got some chalky square stuff going on in week 11, so if you’re too snobby to roll with the “Joe’s” this week would be a good time to fade our thoughts. We actually like this slate a lot, as we’re at the point of the season where we are seeing teams head in opposite directions. There’s less parity this year than in previous seasons, and it’s starting to resemble a top-heavy and bottom-feeder lineup in most of the divisions. That’s enough to get us focused on backing those contending teams, and expecting the fight and upsets of the lesser squads to start to dwindle. We’ve got eight total bets placed, and we’re all in on a couple of teams this week we need to not let us down. Cheers!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) vs. Detroit Lions (8-1)
Sunday November 17th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson’s seat is getting a little toasty, as he appears to be a bit of a lame duck coach to wrap up the 2024 season. A trip to Detroit to face the Lions is not the ideal scenario for a coach trying to prove he and his team are still worthy of more lives. Can the outmanned Jags stay competitive with Detroit, or is this game a blowout, as the spread would indicate?
Breaking down the Jacksonville offense has gotten pretty easy and repetitive, no matter who the opponent. The one difference is the quarterback position, which is certainly not improved with Trevor Lawrence sidelined again with a shoulder injury. Mac Jones is even less capable than Lawrence of moving this team, and it all starts with their offensive line. Despite trying, the Jags have not been able to get the tackle positions secured, and it continues to be an issue. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, this Lions defense will be able to get some pressure on Jones. We may see Z’Darius Smith in his debut for Detroit, and what a dream matchup for him to get started. On the interior, Detroit is as stingy and physical as it gets at stopping the run. That means more struggles in a forgotten season for Travis Etienne, Jr. or Tank Bigsby. The Jaguars have been unable to get Evan Engram involved in his return from injury in the passing game, and free agent acquisition Gabe Davis has been a ghost. With Christian Kirk out for the year, rookie Brian Thomas, Jr. is really the only player that teams need to keep an eye on. Since Kirk’s injury, Thomas has seen a safety over the top almost regularly. Look for the Lions to play a similar style, which is going to make it really hard for Jacksonville to sustain offense.
The Lions offense is also pretty easy to break down, however for drastically different reasons. Their offensive line is really manhandling opponents, and particularly weaker opponents. The Jaguars aren’t horrible in their front, but they haven’t been great either. The Lions should be able to run the ball effectively as we’ll see yet another big day for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Big plays will also be a factor, as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams will wreak havoc against a Jags secondary that has been torched regularly this season. The only hope Jacksonville really has, is to force negative plays and turnovers, but the Lions tackles should be able to neutralize the pass rush of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. On the fast turf, the Lions are simply bigger, stronger, faster and better like that old Kanye song says. Jared Goff will certainly be more cautious with the football after last week, and this is a great rebound spot for the QB.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 0-8 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
There have been a handful of mismatched games this season, but perhaps none as big as what we may see between these two teams. You absolutely don’t run on the Lions, which means it’s all on Mac Jones, in a hostile road environment to keep the Jaguars in the game against Detroit. We witnessed how that went a week ago against the Vikings, and it wasn’t good. The Jaguars most likely aren’t going to get four turnovers like they did a week ago, and conversely, Jared Goff is probably not going to toss five interceptions for a second week in a row. The Lions have too much firepower on the offensive side of the ball for the Jaguars defense to contain, and it’s just asking too much for Mac Jones behind a poor offensive line and no running game to do much. This game has blowout written all over it. The old rule of not betting double-digit favorites can be considered a thing of the past. There are a lot of ways to bet this, considering what price you’re getting. For example, Lions first half/game double result. We’re going to play it clean to keep our vig normal and go with the first half -7 that is out there at several books, as well as -13.5 full game.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions First Half -7 / Detroit Lions -13.5
Lions 30, Jaguars 13 First Half – Lions 17, Jaguars 7
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-7)
Sunday November 17th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams head to New England needing a win to keep pace in the crowded NFC West. The Patriots are coming off of their most impressive win of the season and are looking to string some victories and momentum into the second half of the season. While the Patriots may be playing for pride and momentum, the Rams will be playing in a game they really need to win.
When the Rams offense is cooking, they’re really cooking, but when they’re not, they can look very mediocre. This happens when Matthew Stafford is under heavy duress, and they’re not running effectively with Kyren Williams. The Patriots defense rebounded well last week against a bad Bears offensive line, but this should be heavy Kyren Williams work in week 11. New England has been good at slowing down one wideout, but they’ve struggled against teams that boast more than one quality receiving threat. Enter Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Both players should be healthy following their IR stints, and expect at least one, if not both to have a big game Sunday. Of course, this is all dependent as mentioned on how well the Rams can protect quarterback Matthew Stafford. As long as the effort is there, this should be a nice bounceback for the Rams, even on the road.
Patriots fans have to be pretty giddy with what they’re seeing from rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Although he has certainly looked like a rookie at times, he’s shown a lot of promising signs of being the future of the franchise at the position. This could be a tough matchup though, despite the fact the Rams defense isn’t really a top-tier group collectively. What they have done well is generate pressure with their defensive line. Maye has understandably had trouble when he’s been under pressure. Can the Rams force Maye into some mistakes and negative plays? If they do, this is the type of game that could get away from New England. LA will have their eyes on Rhamondre Stevenson and the running game of the Patriots as well, and that’s the obvious other key matchup on this side of the field. If we’re fast forwarding ahead, the Patriots are probably going to need to score 20+ points to cover this game. Does this offense have enough juice to get to that number?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Rams
– The Patriots are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 home games
– The Patriots are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games
The Rams really have only themselves to blame for their loss in week 10 to the Dolphins. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford should be able to get some of those mistakes corrected against a New England Patriots team that is still a bottom five team in the league. Drake Maye does give them some fight and some hope, but let’s not get too excited over their win against a disappointing Chicago Bears team. The Rams should bounce back, and we’re confident enough to lay some chalk here with a square play.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Rams -4.5
Rams 24, Patriots 17
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (2-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Sunday November 17th
1:00pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Cleveland Browns -1 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Only sports betting can make the contest between the Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints interesting to those outside of their respective cities. Cleveland is working off of a little bit of renewed energy behind quarterback Jameis Winston, while the Saints are coming off of an exciting home win against the rival Falcons.
No team is benefiting more from an injury right now than the Cleveland Browns. Deshaun Watson was very possibly the worst starting quarterback in the league, and Jameis Winston is in consideration for the top backup. This matchup is a little bit about Watson, but it’s more about the Browns attacking one of the worst defenses in the league. The once proud Saints defense has watched a lot of talent walk out their door, and has seen veteran leaders like Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis simply starting to run out of gas. When the Browns offense is going, it’s because of their offensive line and running game dominating. While that hasn’t happened this season, this could be their first real sighting of what the team wanted to be with Nick Chubb and the big guys up front. All of that will help Jameis Winston when he does need to throw the football. Slinging the rock has never been an issue for Winston, it’s really all about making sure he’s careful with the football. Turnovers are key for any team in any game, but the Browns are simply the better football team here. As long as they’re not giving the Saints extra possessions, they should be able to come away with the win.
Kudos to Derek Carr and the Saints offense for making things happen against the Falcons last weekend. Carr was able to revive Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s career with a couple of long touchdown passes, and the Saints got a much needed victory. The question heading into this game against the Browns defense is, can they duplicate it against a better opponent? Sure, this Browns defense isn’t the beastly defense we thought it might be able to be, but they’re still pretty solid. Myles Garrett should be able to get some pressure on Carr, which is something the Falcons were largely unable to do last weekend. The key for the Browns here is just to slow down Alvin Kamara in both the running and passing game. If Kamara can’t get things going, where else does Carr have to turn? Are we expecting another game like we saw from MVS? If the Browns can avoid giving up the big plays, and hold Kamara down even just a bit, we’re going to see a lot of punts from the Saints.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 3-6 ATS in the 2024 season
– The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Saints are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games
You can’t really consider this a revenge game for Jameis Winston, but is does get a shot at a team he’s very familiar with. Not only is he familiar with them, this particular Saints team is not good on defense at all. After a little warm up after his activation, this could be the first opportunity for fans to see Nick Chubb look like a dominant player again. Winston should have time to throw the ball, and he’s really gotten more players involved in the passing game. On the opposite side of the ball, the Browns defense really just needs to figure out how to contain Alvin Kamara. We’re going to fade a duplicate performance from MVS, and expect New Orleans to struggle a bit running the football. The Saints got their win last week, and even though they’re at home, stringing another win together seems pretty unlikely to happen.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns -1
Browns 23, Saints 20
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (4-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
Sunday November 17th
4:05pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
The Seattle Seahawks wasted little time re-kindling their rivalry with the 49ers as D.K. Metcalf let the trash talking commence early in the week. The Seahawks need Metcalf healthy and back on the field as they’re desperate for a win to remain a factor in the NFC West. Both teams could be labeled as underachieving to this point in the season, but one will leave this game with a realistic shot at still competing in the division.
The Seahawks offense really struggled without the presence of D.K. Metcalf in the lineup, which means we’ll see some instant improvement with him back. His abilities really open things up for everyone else, including running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Seattle wants to own the time of possession battle and keep the 49ers offense off of the field. The running game has been boom or bust for the Hawks’, so how effective it is in this one will have a big impact on the result of the contest. On defense, the 49ers have traditionally done a good job of getting pressure on quarterback Geno Smith, and his performances are greatly split between when he has a clean pocket, versus not. Despite another strong season from Nick Bosa, the Niners haven’t been great at generating pressure as a team, so this is a crucial matchup to watch in this game.
Speaking of welcoming players back, it was nice to see Christian McCaffrey back on the field a week ago. After a warm up week, he now gets to face a Seahawks defense that has been gashed by some of the better running backs in the league. The team made a statement releasing starting linebacker Tyrel Dodson this week in an effort to motivate what would best be described as lackluster performance in their front seven. The Seahawks do boast one of the top secondary units in the league, so they can match up with guys like Deebo Samuel and Jajuan Jennings, but that can be irrelevant if they can’t get pressure or stop the run up front. Another encouraging sign from the Niners is we’re getting some glimpses of first round pick Ricky Pearsall in the passing game, which gives them another needed weapon in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk. Although they’d undoubtedly like to keep Christian McCaffrey fresh for the stretch run, he should see a lot of work in this game if the 49ers offensive line is productive. This is the type of matchup for San Francisco where they are the only ones who may be able to stop themselves. As long as Brock Purdy takes care of the football, it’s tough to see a scenario where the Seahawks defense can hold down the 49ers offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the 49ers
– The 49ers are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games vs. the Seahawks
Although we’ve seen some chinks in the armor of the San Francisco 49ers, this is still their division to own. (Sorry about that Cardinals). Christian McCaffrey now has a week under his belt and should be able to shoulder a little more of the load for the offense, which will only make things easier for the rest of the weapons of the Niners. The Seahawks are still trying to find their identity under a new head coach, and while this game might be close, it feels like an upset road win would be just a little too much. For that reason, we’re going to go a couple of different directions than the spread here. Give us the 49ers team total against a defense that is really struggling, and we’ll go ahead and use San Francisco as a teaser leg listed below as well.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers Team Total – Over 27.5 / Tease 49ers -.5 and Texans -1
49ers 31, Seahawks 24
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
Sunday November 17th
4:25pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -2 (-105)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The game of the week features the Kansas City Chiefs in Buffalo taking on their biggest non-division rival Bills. The league’s top quarterbacks of the past five seasons will face off in a contest that may actually feature more defense than offense for a change. These teams have given us some of the top games of recent memory, and it’s possible another great one could be in store Sunday afternoon.
The Chiefs offense got a shot in the arm as they incorporated DeAndre Hopkins into their lineup initially, before looking a little anemic again against a good Broncos defense. The lack of weapons have forced the Chiefs to really rely on Travis Kelce probably more than they had planned at this stage of his career. At the end of the day, Patrick Mahomes is going to go with what he’s confident in, and that’s his future Hall of Fame tight end. The Bills defense struggles a bit in the middle of the field, so Kelce should have another good day against a team he’s performed well against in the past. The other player that should have success is running back Kareem Hunt, who has been an absolute workhorse filling in for Isaih Pacheco. The Bills will be playing their normal nickel two high safety shell as a base, so Hunt should have some success. The Bills are needing defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones to step up in this game to support the run defense. Where the Bills have an advantage is on the edges, as Greg Rousseau should be able to give the left tackles of the Chiefs problems. This is the type of game the Bills got Von Miller for, so let’s see if he can show up on the opposite edge on third downs and in big moments. Time of possession in this game could be critical. If the Chiefs can run the ball and convert third downs, they’ll win the game. If the Bills can get off the field, they’ll get the win. One quite note to mention, Chiefs reliable Pro Bowl kicker Harrison Butker will not be playing, so those sure thing field goal attempts could become a lot tougher in the winds off of Lake Erie in Buffalo.
The Bills offense continues to rack up points, but it’s a little deceptive. They’ve been helped by turnovers, and have faced some less than elite defensive units this season. The one really strong defense they played in Houston made them look very bad. The Bills have tried to not fully rely on Josh Allen to play hero ball, but any chance their offense has in this game is going to live and die with the dynamic quarterback. The Bills want to funnel their offense through their run game, but the Chiefs simply do not allow opponents to bully them on the ground anymore. With a good scheme and multiple weapons, they can be attacked in the secondary, but the Bills are going to have some struggles here. They’ll be without Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid, and new addition Amari Cooper is a true game time decision, and is nursing a wrist injury. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has feasted on the short passing game against bad opponents, but he simply isn’t able to scheme mediocre receivers consistently open. Without a running game, Josh Allen is going to have to do a lot. While that can be a great thing for the Bills, it can also force him into some mistakes, something he’s largely avoided most of this season.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Chiefs
When you have two of the best quarterbacks of the modern era, a 35-31 shootout is always a possibility. If we’re going strictly off of 2024 handicapping, this should be more of a defensive battle that will likely still be close, but probably more reasonable to end up in the low 20’s, as opposed to into the 30’s for scoring. Both defenses are going to play soft, so we should see some long drives, and both defenses like to play a bend but don’t break style. If they can hold up in the red zone, the kickers could end up being big keys to the outcome of this game. We’re going to play with fire and sweat out an under with Mahomes and Allen in what should be another close ballgame.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 46
Chiefs 22, Bills 20
Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Houston Texans (6-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
Monday November 18th
8:15pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Houston Texans -7 (-115)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
The battle for the state of Texas isn’t quite as appealing as it appeared it might be to begin the season. The Texans have struggled with the loss of some offensive firepower, and the Cowboys will be without quarterback Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season. Although each team is facing some obstacles, one team is clearly more alive than the other heading into this contest.
If you’re one of the folks questioning C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, you may be able to erase that after this weekend’s game with the Cowboys. Wide receiver Nico Collins was playing the best at the position before he injured his hamstring in week five. He’s set to make his return to the lineup, which will have a massive impact on what this offense can do overall. His ability to stretch the field and make contested catches is something defensive backs simply cannot deal with. The Cowboys have a solid secondary overall, but only a select few players and schemes can really slow down Collins. None of this will matter however, if the Texans can get their running game going. That will be much easier to do against the Cowboys than it was against the Lions. Look for Joe Mixon to pick up chunks of yardage, which will not only keep the time of possession in favor of Houston, but also wear down what has to be a discouraged Dallas defense. Having Micah Parsons back in the lineup is certainly huge for the Cowboys, but this defense has become too much of Parsons and ten other guys, with not enough support or defensive playmakers. Even if Parsons can make some plays, the Texans should win more battles on this side of the ball than they lose.
It’s not hyperbole at this point to suggest the Cowboys have the worst offense in the NFL heading into week eleven. The offensive line, which was once the model across the entire league, is now a unit that cannot run block, or pass block. It doesn’t help that their running back stable is less than dominant, but even if they were they’d struggle with who is in front of them. Pass blocking made things difficult when Dak Prescott was starting, and it’s going to make them downright miserable with Cooper Rush and or Trey Lance behind center. The Texans Danielle Hunter is playing out of this world right now, and their defense as a whole should be able to bully the Cowboys front. Their secondary continues to lock down receivers, and at this point, Dallas really only has one, in CeeDee Lamb. If you’re adding all of these things up, it’s going to be another tough day at the offense for the Dallas offense. They’re simply limited by not enough talent, and now backup QB play. Where are the yards and points coming with this group?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games
You know things are bad in Dallas when NFL fans are actually feeling sorry for the Cowboys. Speaking of lame duck coaches, this looks like the next couple of months will be the last for Mike McCarthy in this Dallas experiment, that truly needs to be blown up and started over. The matchups in this game are going to be too much for Dallas to overcome, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Texans defense is one of the top units in the league, and they’re going to overwhelm the offensive line of the Cowboys. In taking CeeDee Lamb away, and with no semblance of a running game, it could be another single digit performance for the offense for a second week in a row. On offense, the Texans really click when they have Joe Mixon and the running game going. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Cowboy run defense, and the return of Nico Collins will give them different options based on what’s in front of them. Losing last week keeps this spread manageable, but way less than where it really should be. The Texans are in play in a couple of different areas.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans -7 / Tease 49ers -.5 and Texans -1
Texans 27, Cowboys 16
