THANKSGIVING BREAKDOWN:
For NFL fans Thanksgiving day is one of the best days of the year as we have a full day of games, either in the forefront or in the background with turkey, drinks, naps and we hope no work. As is the usual case the day starts out with a game featuring the Lions that isn’t going to have much in way of playoff race drama as they’ll take on the Texans. The afternoon contest is an important game between the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys as each team is fighting for the division crown in the NFC East. (First to six wins gets in?) In an unfortunate late scratch, the best game of the day between the Ravens and Steelers is being pushed back to Sunday due to rampant COVID issues in Baltimore. The late scratch has us without an “officially posted play”, however we still wanted to provide some insight and potential betting options for Turkey Day.
Just because the Thanksgiving games aren’t the best we’ll see this season, it doesn’t mean there is any lack of opportunities for some wagering. If you plan to get some action going, here’s a stat you’ll want to keep in mind. Since 2004, favorites in Thanksgiving day have gone a remarkable 40-6 straight up and 33-13 against the spread. Here’s a quick breakdown of both games along with some bets to consider:
Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Houston Texans (3-7) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
Thursday November 26th
12:30pm
CBS
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Houston Texans -3 (-115)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
The early appetizer on the NFL slate features the AFC representative Houston Texans taking on the Detroit Lions. They’re both technically alive in the playoff race, even if just as a formality.
After a slow start to the season the Houston Texans offense has really played pretty well over the past two months. Deshaun Watson certainly deserves a lot of credit as he’s doing this without DeAndre Hopkins, and really with a pretty average roster along his side. Taking on the Lions defense is a favorable spot for Watson even though he’ll be without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb in the passing game. This will actually open up opportunities for Keke Coutee who has shown flashes of good production when given the opportunities during his young career. While the Lions have done a solid job against opposing tight ends, this could also be a game where tight ends Darren Fells and Jordan Akins make some things happen. The Texans may not even attempt to work the running game as they’ve had such little success this season with David Johnson, and now his backup Duke Johnson.
The Lions will also be limited with their wide receiving unit as they’ll be without their top target Kenny Golladay and slot receiver Danny Amendola. The difference between these two teams however is the Lions will absolutely attempt to run the ball against what has been a very soft Texans defense. Rookie D’Andre Swift still needs to officially clear concussion protocol and his availability is a key as he’s really played well recently. If he can’t go it’ll be a committee of Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, each of whom could find success against this Texans defense. The Lions offensive line play will be important as when they’ve played well, the offense has played well. When they haven’t been able to block in the running game or protect Stafford it’s been a huge struggle. Can the Texans muster enough of a pass rush to make Stafford uncomfortable without having two of his top targets?
KEY STATS AND TRENDS
– The Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 Texans games
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 11 Lions home games
– The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Thanksgiving games
Rarely does a missing player that isn’t a quarterback have a major impact on a game, but that’s exactly what the case is here. The Lions offense is night and day with and without Golladay threatening the defense. That’s really only the second key to this game realistically speaking. The big question here is are the Lions mailing it in on head coach Matt Patricia? Would a Lions loss, or a bad loss result in Patricia getting fired? If this were a Sunday game this could absolutely be the case. You’ve got to imagine that being the national Thanksgiving Day game the team is going to try to play well, whether they’re fighting for Patricia or not. If they can get off to a quick start, they’ll be fine, but if they fall behind early, it could get ugly. For the Texans it’s really quite simple. They’re going to find some ways to score in the passing game. Can their defense stand up enough to stop a hobbled Lions offense? As mentioned, we’re not playing this publicly, but here is our anticipated score and some bets we’d at least consider:
Houston Texans 29, Detroit Lions 24
Houston Texans – 3
Houston Texans – Team Total – Over 27.5
Deshaun Watson – Over 299.5 Yards Passing
Will Fuller V – Over 70.5 Yards Receiving
Marvin Jones, Jr. – Over 55.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Stafford – Under 270.5 Yards Passing
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Washington Football Team (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Thursday November 26th
4:30pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -3 (EVEN)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The now featured game between Washington and Dallas will get one of these teams to four wins. Normally that would not be good when shooting for the playoffs, however that will give the winning team here a big boost in the likelihood of winning the NFC East.
The feel-good story of the season rests with probable comeback player of the year Alex Smith at the helm for the Washington Football Team. Normally if a team is on their third quarterback you can figure they’re going to be sitting in a really bad spot. That’s not the case for Washington as Smith is the best of the quarterbacks that they’ve marched out on the field this season. Now that Smith has had a chance to work himself back into real-life game action, he should be poised to have a nice game on the national stage. The Cowboys defense has been a little better the last couple of games, but that still hasn’t been overly impressive. Smith should be able to pick his spots in the passing game as he’s continued to feature the underrated Terry McLaurin while elevating the play of Cam Sims and Steve Sims, Jr. at the wide receiver position. Add in the receiving of running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic and Washington should be able to move the sticks effectively against a subpar Cowboys secondary. DeMarcus Lawrence challenged his mates on the defensive line to play faster and stronger. Can they do that against Alex Smith?
The Cowboys offense looked better as their offensive line is slowly piecing itself back together, headed by guard Zack Martin. It’s no coincidence that running back Ezekiel Elliott went over 100 yards last week against the Vikings as well as he enjoyed some room to run. It’ll be a little tougher sledding against Washington, but look for the team to try to get Elliott 20+ carries in this game. What really propelled the team was the return of veteran Andy Dalton calling signals as he gives the team a legitimate chance in the passing game. With his weapons healthy, Dalton will look to spread the ball around off of play action and in obvious passing situations. That won’t be easy though as Washington is number one versus the pass entering the game. Their defensive line has gotten after opposing quarterbacks and their mixture of aggressive man and zone coverage has confused even the better quarterbacks that they’ve faced. Dalton won’t face much he hasn’t seen in his career, but will he have the time he needs to get the ball to his playmakers? He’ll be overlooked by the wide receiver trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, but tight end Dalton Schultz will need to play a big role for the Cowboys to loosen things up and give Dalton a safety outlet.
KEY STATS AND TRENDS
– Washington is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Cowboys
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for Washington
– The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Public money is not surprisingly on the Cowboys in this game, and with Dalton behind center and behind a better offensive line they could cruise to victory. It seems more feasible that this will be a really close game between two rivals who know each other well, despite the new quarterbacks playing. Can the Cowboys defense step up and help the team, rather than be a liability? Can Washington slow down Ezekiel Elliott and the running game of the Cowboys forcing them to be one dimensional? Not to sound cliche, but special teams could absolutely be a factor in determining the outcome of this game. This is a tough one to call so we’d lean towards taking the points, or teasing Washington as their defense should keep this game close. There are some intriguing player props to consider as well.
Washington Redskins 24, Dallas Cowboys 23
Washington Football Team +3
Washington Football Team ML
Washington Football Team tease to +9 (pair with another game)
Andy Dalton – Under 249.5 Yards Passing
Terry McLaurin – Over 73.5 Yards Receiving
Ezekiel Elliot – Over 70.5 Yards Rushing
Thanksgiving Daily Fantasy Football
With the postponing of the Steelers and Ravens, the Thanksgiving contests are either showdowns of each individual game, or you can play a combo of the two remaining games. Here’s a glance at some of the key players we’re looking at. Note – We’ll be adding D’Andre Swift to the roster if it’s confirmed that he has cleared concussion protocol. If he hasn’t we’ll look to add Adrian Peterson in. Best of luck!
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, enjoy the Day!
