The most exciting element of the start of an NFL season is that every team and fan-base are full of excitement and hope. This year, each team starts 0-0 with their sights on a playoff birth and a trip to the ultimate stage at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami for a spot in Super Bowl LIV and football immortality. Alright, let’s be honest, the Super Bowl hosts probably aren’t filled with quite as much excitement and hope as some of the other organizations in the league. And if we really want to be honest with ourselves, we need look no further than who the Sportsbooks feel have a legitimate shot at winning the trophy. If your team is facing 100-1 odds, you may not need to make travel plans for the playoffs in January. Or should you? One of the most popular bets at the start of the season is trying to select who will in fact win the Super Bowl.
At BetCrushers, we don’t get too caught up in trying to capture futures like this as it’s pretty likely that you’ll be watching your bankroll disappear, rather than cashing in on a long shot. But it’s always fun to throw a few bucks on a team you think can or will win the championship, as much for bragging rights and some self fulfilling pats on the back. If you’re looking to make a pick on this year’s winner, let’s first examine who the handicapping experts and line makers feel are the teams that can make a run, and those that most likely won’t.
No huge surprise here to see everyone’s favorite team (cough, cough) the New England Patriots sitting as the favorites at +700. I mean at this point it’s hard to ever argue that they won’t be playing in this game with a chance to continue their dynasty’s legacy of an almost ridiculous magnitude. Following them we see the Chiefs, Saints, last year’s NFC representative, the Rams, and everybody’s new darling, the Cleveland Browns.
The question when placing a wager like this really becomes, do you want to try to hit one of the favorites? I mean after all, those are pretty good odds even if you want to go with one of the perennial big dogs. Or would you rather take a flyer on a team that most likely isn’t going to be able to make a run, but would absolutely pay off in a big way if they did? For our money, as we do with nearly every bet we place, we’re looking for where we can really find value. Is there a team that can legitimately win the Super Bowl, but has a higher payout? In our mindset, we’re not really anticipating winning this wager, so we might as well roll the dice and take just a little chance.
There are a handful of appealing teams on this list, but for our Super Bowl LIV bet we’re taking the Philadelphia Eagles at +1200. While it’s certainly a tough path potentially having to get through teams like the Saints, Rams and Bears to name a few, this Eagles team certainly has the ability to do so. Let’s not forget that they’re only two years removed from hoisting the Lombardi trophy. Generally to win the Super Bowl you need a combination of a few things to happen. You need quality quarterback play and coaching, some playmakers on both sides of the ball, veteran leadership, and to avoid the devastating injury bug. While the last piece is an unknown for every team, we’ll focus on the other traits for the sake of this discussion.
Perhaps the best thing for Eagles fan in their Super Bowl LII victory is that Nick Foles was the starting and winning quarterback in that game. In simple terms, Carson Wentz still needs to win a Super Bowl if he wants to be considered in the upper echelon of NFL QBs. That hunger should keep him focused, and if he’s matured as he’s claimed, then that would parallel his undeniable physical skills at the position. This team underachieved a season ago, but as we look in the rear-view mirror, it’s actually not surprising. The real question now is, will they rebound this year and compete with the league’s elite or are they just a borderline playoff team again? I’m banking on them bouncing back in a big way this year as they have a lot of really nice pieces in place including some nice additions via the draft. The defense is still a little worrisome as I’m not sure they were able to shore up a porous secondary as much as they needed to, but I really like what this offense can potentially do. There is no reason they shouldn’t be able to light up the scoreboard week in and week out. Early in the season you can pretty much count on the BetCrushers looking closely at the team’s over point totals and game totals.
If you’re not an Eagles fan, or the +1200 doesn’t get your juices flowing, we’ll go ahead and throw you one more for a little extra credit. Keep an eye on the Houston Texans at +3300 on most boards. This is a team with a lot of potential upside. They’re going to have their hands full with the Colts and what I’d expect to be an improved Jacksonville Jaguars squad, but if they can stay healthy (which is something they’ve struggled mightily to do), they certainly have the ability to make a run. Deshaun Watson could really be headed to the next step of super stardom, and they’ve proven before that they can get hot. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a bit of a longshot, but that’s about as much value as I think you can get at +3300.
One thing is for certain, if you’re betting the Super Bowl futures, don’t be afraid to take a chance. If we rewind 12 months and look back at the odds for the Super Bowl LIII winner, we’ll see that 8 of the top 12 favored teams didn’t even make the playoffs. Meanwhile we saw teams that were 30-1, 66-1 and 80-1 all make appearances in the postseason. We’ll most likely be able to tell by about week 6 of the season if our pick(s) may still be in play or if we’ll have wasted a few beer’s worth of money, but either way we’re looking forward to the NFL’s 100th season and Super Bowl LIV.
