Previous Week Plays – 3-1-1
Season Record – 41-30-4

Wild Card Recap:

A very nice start to Wild Card Weekend for the BetCrushers as we went 6-1 with our prop bets and a respectable 3-1-1 with our posted plays here. Our solo loss was the first half under in the Seahawks and Rams game. We’ll go down screaming that we were on the correct side there, as six minutes into the second quarter there were only nine points scored. A blown coverage bomb to D.K. Metcalf and the pick six tossed by Russell Wilson opened up the floodgates though as the total went over. We had talked about shopping the over total for the first half in the Bills and Colts game and played/posted it at 24 which ended up pushing. At gametime most books had it at 24.5 which would have lost, proving why having multiple books is important. Our teaser bet came through as the Bills and Bucs were able to get it done, although Buffalo had to sweat out a Colts comeback and missed fumble call. The Ravens got revenge on the Titans and covered, and the over in the Steelers/Browns sailed way over due to the insane 28 point first quarter outburst from Cleveland. The league had to be overall pleased with Wild Card round and the preparation for what is the most quality weekend of play in the divisional round.

Divisional Round Preview:

We’re down to eight teams that really feel like they are truly the eight best teams in the league at this point in the season. The Packers and Chiefs join the fun after their number one seed byes and all four games feature some of the leagues biggest stars. Management for the NFL have to be pleased as it’s brightest quarterbacks are on display for the world to see. The AFC conference is a story of the youth movement as Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are the old men at quarterback with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson rounding out the youngsters. The NFC is a different story though as future Hall of Fame legends Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are joined by Jared Goff (we think) as the experienced group. Below is our breakdown of all four game. As always, note that we are not playing all four games directly, our posted plays are at the bottom of the article.

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

vs.
Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills(14-3)
Buffalo Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -2 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)

First round 2018 quarterbacks will be on display in the first game of the divisional round as Josh Allen and the Bills host Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Each team accomplished a major milestone and can breathe a little easier after getting much needed playoff wins on their respective resumes. You could argue that Buffalo and Baltimore are the two hottest teams in the league entering the weekend as one of these very good teams will be sent home as the other will continue on.

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:

The rebound in the Ravens offense can seemingly be attributed to two really big factors. The first is much improved play from their offensive line that apparently has figured out how to deal with the earlier season injuries to key players. The second, and more important, is the hyped up and very efficient return of Lamar Jackson who looks as good as he did a year ago heading into the playoffs. Having quieted the critics after winning his first playoff game, he should be able to play loose and continue his fun against a shaky Buffalo defense. The Bills defense struggled against the Colts, although they liked their gameplan. All season they’ve had their issues stopping running teams and of course Jackson provides the absolute “X” Factor in the running game, and in the tuck and run world. What’s really encouraging if your a Ravens fan is the fact that Jackson has looked really solid throwing the ball. With Tennessee daring the Ravens to throw, Jackson took full advantage hitting Marquise Brown and his receivers when necessary. The Bills will have to take the same approach and trust that their cornerbacks and safeties can hold up in single coverage. The Bills do have some flexibility at the safety position with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer very flexible at playing all over the field. Linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are two of the quicker linebackers in the league, but you simply can’t expect to slow down Jackson with linebackers, no matter how quick they are. Other than Lamar Jackson, the most likely player on Baltimore to make some waves would seem to be tight end Mark Andrews, who is generally Jackson’s favorite target. Only a couple of teams were worst during the season at defending the tight end position than the Bills, and they allowed Jack Doyle to absolutely torch them in the Wild Card round en route to being the highest rated offensive player of the entire weekend. The Ravens aren’t going to do much that isn’t going to be expected, the unknown is whether or not the Buffalo defense can rise to the challenge enough to force them to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

It was a bit of a slow start for the Bills offensively against the Colts as Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll strayed a bit from his hot streak of calling games. The team decided to try to stay balanced and force the run, without much success against the stout Colts run defense. Daboll eventually opened things up which led to another great performance from quarterback Josh Allen and once again validated the trade for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In fact, much like Lamar Jackson, Allen was able to get his first playoff victory. Outside of one bad fumble that offensive tackle Daryl Williams was able to recover, Allen played a near perfect game. He’ll need to do that and maybe even more against a defense that is very similar to the Colts, except much better at the cornerback position. Marlon Humphrey has been good all season and will draw Diggs for most of the game. If you like the matchups inside the matchups this is the key one to watch on this side of the ball. The winner of this all day will probably determine the winner of this game if it’s a relatively clean played contest. Part of the reason that Diggs is so important is the Bills will have trouble trying to run the football again versus Brandon Williams, Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe. Add in the fact that co-runner Zack Moss was lost for the season last week and it’s going to be really difficult for the Bills to establish much on the ground. With Diggs having a big assignment in getting open, and the running game likely bottled up, it’s going to be critical for Buffalo’s other receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to win some matchups. And if they can get something from John Brown who was shutout against Indy that would help their cause as well. It’s also possible the Ravens other cornerback Marcus Peters could be a factor in either a good or a bad way in this game. Everyone knows Peters is extremely aggressive and if he is able to turn over Josh Allen it would be a game-changing moment. Conversely, if one of the Bills receivers and Allen can catch Peters gambling, it could lead to a big play for their offense. Lastly, it’s prudent to circle back to offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The plan last week was pretty vanilla overall. Against the aggressive Ravens defense, we’d expect some more motion, misdirection and possibly trick plays rather than a helmet on a helmet attack.

KEY STATS:
– The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Ravens are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 vs the Bills
– The Ravens are 13-2 straight up in their last 15 games on the road
– The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Bills are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Baltimore Ravens 54%

THE SKINNY:
Before even beginning to handicap this game it’s important to keep a close eye on the weather report as it appears some snow and wind will be in the forecast in Buffalo during gametime. Does that favor the run heavy Ravens, or is Lamar Jackson’s inexperience in those conditions an issue, especially if he does need to throw? Even if the weather wasn’t an issue, it’s still a tricky matchup. These teams are opposites in many different facets. While most people think this will be a close game, it’s not impossible that either team could run away with it if one style dominates to win out against the other. If we were going to play anything it would probably be the Ravens ML as in a coin flip game it seems like the plus money is where the play should be. We’ll be observing this one though from the sidelines.

BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens +2.5
Baltimore Ravens 30, Buffalo Bills 24

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

vs.

Los Angeles Rams (11-6) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
CenturyLink Stadium – Seattle, WA
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)

A tale of two teams with different strengths in Lambeau Field between the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers. Although the Rams opened as a touchdown underdog, they do have the type of defense that can slow down the Packers high-scoring attack. Will their favorable matchups be enough to take down Aaron Rodgers in his home stadium? Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has had an extra week to gameplan, and may have the advantage over the Rams Sean McVay.

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

Things went from bad to maybe slightly better or worse for the Rams in their game with the Seahawks when first game starting QB John Wolford was lost early to injury. That pressed Jared Goff back into action, a role that Sean McVay was trying to avoid. Goff did his best to gut it out in the win, but it was very apparent that his thumb injury was impacting his ability to throw. How much better it might be this week against Green Bay is anyone’s guess as he’ll have to sling it around in the Wisconsin cold. He’ll also need to do it against a defense that is geared to stop a quarterback like him with an edge pass rush and strong secondary. Goff can be hot and cold depending upon the pressure he does or doesn’t get so the Rams offensive line needs to hold up against Z’Darius Smith and the Packers. It’s been helped by the unexpected return of Andrew Whitworth who is still holding it together on the left side of the line in what might be his last season. With all the focus on Goff, the team will need a repeat performance from rookie running back Cam Akers who was unstoppable against a pretty solid Seattle Seahawks defense. The Packers have played better against the run of late, but still are not an elite unit and can be pushed around if they’re not disciplined.

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

In almost any matchup you can find clear advantages for the Green Bay Packers offense that go beyond just the talent of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The margins are a little slimmer against the LA Rams who are playing the best defense of the teams remaining in the playoffs. The Packers passing game starts with Davante Adams who’s basically taken what he wants anytime he’s wanted to for most of the season. It’s going to be really challenging for him this year as he’s facing the league’s top cornerback in Jalen Ramsey who will be locked with Adams for much of the contest. The league’s most effective receiver in 2020 versus the top corner, wow. Not that the Packers have had to face that much this season, but they’ll turn to the running game to help move the chains if Rodgers can’t get what he needs to Adams. The Rams have been very good against the run as well though as they have that Aaron Donald guy on their defensive line playing at his usual All-World level. The big question for the Packers offense would seem to be if they can get someone else to step up if Adams and Aaron Jones aren’t able to have their usual dominant performances? After such a successful season for the GB offense it seems wild that we might be looking at guys like Robert Tonyan and Allen Lazard to shoulder the burden of offense. That’s assuming that Rodgers, Jones and Adams can’t win their matchups against the Rams defense. Another important note to recall is All-Pro left tackle David Bahktiari will not be in the lineup as Jared Veldheer is coming to town to give some depth to the position. One final piece to consider, Mason Crosby should have a small edge in the kicking game if the weather ends up being less than ideal in the special teams arena.

KEY STATS:
– The Packers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Packers are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 home games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games between these teams
– The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs the Packers
– The total has gone under in 11 of the last 14 Rams games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Green Bay Packers 53%

Some early money came in on the Rams as their strong performance and dominant defense are fresh in the minds of bettors. Getting near a touchdown (you can find a 7 at several books) sounds good when you’ve got Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. We’re going the opposite way though as we’re simplifying things this way. Will Jared Goff in a frozen Lambeau defeat a well rested Aaron Rodgers? Even with that potent defense, the Rams have a really tall task in front of them. They had a nice season, but it comes to an end on Saturday. Take a look at the bottom of this article to see what we’re wagering on this game.

BetCrushers Lean: Green Bay Packers -6.5
Green Bay Packers 26, Los Angeles Rams 17

NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

vs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) at Washington FT (13-4)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints -3 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)

You may end up tired of hearing the station announcers losing their minds talking about the matchup between Tom Brady and Drew Brees and the Buccaneers and Saints this Sunday. We’re going to savor every moment of it though as two of the top five quarterbacks in the history of the game will face off in what is almost assuredly their last head to head meeting as pros. The Bucs have been rolling for a few weeks and the Saints are finally fielding their optimal roster heading into the contest. Both defenses will be looking to get after the aforementioned quarterbacks, as whoever can generate the most pressure could end up on the winning side.

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

Just another day for the Buccaneers offense against a pretty good Washington defense last Saturday. Tom Brady played solidly, and despite some dropped passes his receiving corp continued their recent run. Leonard Fournette filled in for the scratched Ronald Jones II and the offensive line played one of their best games of the season holding the Washington defensive line at bay. They’ll face an even stiffer test against the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome as their defense has been on an absolute tear since week seven of the season. The recipe for beating Tom Brady is one that’s known, and that is to disrupt and make him uncomfortable in the pocket, something Washington could not do. The Saints should have some more success as they were relentless getting after him in their two regular season matches, resulting in two of the worst games of Brady’s illustrious career. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians doesn’t like giving help as he wants to stretch the field with receivers, but it’s fair to wonder if the talented TB offensive line will be able to play better based on the two game sample size? At this point it’s unknown if Ronald Jones will be able to go, but whether it’s he or Fournette, don’t count on Arians banging that drum too much against that Saints front. The way the Saints play in their secondary, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are the two receivers who need to win their matchups and get open quickly. Arians and Brady will take their shots with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, but if the pressure is quick, it’ll fall to Godwin and the tight ends to catch quick passes and make plays. Godwin has been very reliable so coming off of several drops last week he should rebound.

THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ON OFFENSE:

At times during the season the Saints offense had some shortcomings moving the sticks. That’s to be expected from a team that was missing it’s key players and rotating guys in and out for a good chunk of the year. Fortunately for New Orleans their team is getting healthy and playing together at just the right time as last week they showed the balance and creativity you’d expect from a Sean Payton coached offense. With a game under the belt of Michael Thomas and Drew Brees looking near his old self this team is ready to attack the Buccaneers again. Payton’s plan should involve the short passing game with Alvin Kamara as he knows he won’t be able to run much against the Bucs number two ranked run defense. Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles also doesn’t change his approach often, but he needs to as the Saints made easy work of his defense during the season. Bowles is a win the line of scrimmage and blitz heavy kind of guy, but they weren’t able to get to Brees as he would take all the quick throws he could get and still will in this game. If Tampa can’t adjust it’s strategy we could see a barrage of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook 7 yard passes all day long. The matchup on the line to watch is on the edge with Terron Armstead blocking or attempting to block veteran Jason Pierre-Paul.

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 games for the Saints

PUBLIC MONEY: – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63%

Here’s the quick recap of advantages for each team: The New Orleans Saints are playing at home, relatively healthy as a team, and absolutely dominated the Buccaneers in their two previous meetings. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are firing on all cylinders, have Antonio Brown in the lineup, and it’s really difficult for one team in the NFL to beat the same opponent three times in one season. So where does that leave this game from a betting perspective? It means this one seems like it could go either way, so play whichever side you’d like, we’ll be passing on this one. The total is more appealing though as the defenses should have some success in this game. If the big plays that these teams are used to getting are throttled just a bit, this game should stay under a fairly big number.

BetCrushers Lean: New Orleans Saints -3
New Orleans Saints 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
vs.

Cleveland Browns (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2)
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)
Over/Under 57 (-110)

The city of Cleveland rejoiced after securing their first playoff win in nearly a generation all while taking it to their arch-nemesis in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs had to be expecting a visit from Baltimore, and now have to face a different offense when the Browns go for a second straight upset. The salty Steelers, in particular wide receiver Chase Claypool, think a beatdown is in the Browns future this weekend. The sportsbooks tend to agree as the Chiefs opened as a heavy 10 point favorite despite a horrible mark against the spread in the second half of the season. Can the fired up Browns who will get their head coach back at least stay within the double-digit number, if not pull out the upset altogether?

THE CLEVELAND BROWNS ON OFFENSE:

We’ve had some themes of young quarterbacks willing their teams to playoff wins and playing really good football, a category that the Browns Baker Mayfield certainly falls into. Mayfield was good again in their win against the Steelers, although he wasn’t asked to do a ton based on the way the game started out. Offensively, it was a lot of what we saw down the stretch for Cleveland. Spreading the ball around on offense, and the team’s biggest players Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry making the big plays when they were needed. The formula won’t change against the Chiefs although because of the opponent Mayfield is going to need to throw a little more than he did. He’s capable of doing that, especially against the Chiefs defense that is one of the most up and down units in the entire league. With some extra rest and time to scheme you’d think that the Chiefs would provide one of their better performances, especially playing in Arrowhead. Kansas City should be a little nervous on their defensive line as they’ll have to take on the best offensive line in football right now. It’s a veteran group led of course by DT Chris Jones on the interior so they should be able to do at least enough to not get run all over on. As is often the case, the Chiefs will try to get out ahead with the score to slow down the attack of Chubb and Hunt, and how successful they are in doing that will be important. Nick Chubb has made it no secret that he’s hungry to get back to KC and play well so look for the usual power running we’re accustomed to seeing. With the style of the Browns offense, it’s also no surprise that tight end Austin Hooper is becoming increasingly targeted in the passing game. He’s a guy that could quietly have a big game for the Browns on offense.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

If you don’t agree that offensive line play is paramount to success in the NFL the Kansas City Chiefs are a walking case study. Let’s back up just a bit as they’re still extremely successful, after all they did have the best record in the league. However, their offensive line has not played very well late in this season and it’s absolutely impacting their offensive performance. Their running game has never gotten going, but more concerning is Patrick Mahomes has been under more pressure than a year ago and looks like an A, rather than an A+. Yes, that’s how high the bar is set in Kansas City, but it is important to note not only in this matchup against the Browns, but for the rest of any of their playoff run. Even though the Browns forced Ben Roethlisberger into four interceptions last week it’s wasn’t really due to a great pass rush. It was a little more fortunate based on tipped balls and poor throws from Big Ben. Since his bout with COVID Myles Garrett has looked pretty average, and even tweeted that he hasn’t gotten back to full strength. With Olivier Vernon out, and the secondary still suspect that doesn’t bode will in an effort to slow down Mahomes and the Chiefs. If there is one player who should absolutely feast in this game it’s tight end Travis Kelce. We’ll be playing his prop totals as he’ll be targeted early and often in the middle of the field. There’ll be some opportunities for the Chiefs wide receivers as well, but it’s Kelce that should have the biggest impact in this game.

KEY STATS:
– The Browns are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Browns are 2-5 straight up in their last 7 games at Kansas City
– The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Chiefs are 13-2 straight up in their last 15 home games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Cleveland Browns 58%

What a great story the Cleveland Browns provided in their Wild Card win that ignited a city that has supported them through nearly two decades of futility. Unfortunately, we’re siding with the Steeler’s opinions here and think that the team gets “clapped back” to reality in a game that’s just too much for them. This team will contend next year and in the future, but this is where the process stops this year in their development. The Chiefs offense and Andy Reid have an extra week to prep, and it’s pretty common knowledge how Reid does in those scenarios. The Browns defense isn’t just not great, they’re flat out bad, especially if Garrett isn’t disruptive. Mahomes should be able to spread the ball around and score really as much as they want for most of the game. It’s probably not wise to lay double digits in an NFL playoff game as in theory teams are fairly even, and of course a backdoor cover is always possible. We’re just 2-2 this season in laying double digits, but we’re going to do it here as the NFL’s elite will take care of business against the young up and coming squad. We’re also looking at a play on the Chiefs over total.

BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -10
Kansas City Chiefs 37, Cleveland Browns 21

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

So that’s our assessment of the Saturday and Sunday matchups and how we believe they’ll play out. Keep a look out for our player props article as there will be some players that are about as sure of a thing to have big days and hit their overs. In the meantime, here are the tickets that we have punched: