ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
New Orleans Saints +120
Atlanta Falcons +215
Carolina Panthers +400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
Just one season ago the Tampa Buccaneers were fairly heavy favorites to capture the NFC South crown. Fast forward to today, and the sportsbooks are predicting a rough go of it for the team in orange. With Tom Brady officially retiring, the South is now an interesting mix of identities and personalities. The Saints opened as the favorites with the Falcons hot on their heels, and Carolina in a bit of limbo with some unknown around how much or how well rookie quarterback Bryce Young will play? The fact is, one of these teams will emerge as a contender, at least to threaten someone in the playoffs, but can any of these teams really do any real damage across the league?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Record – 8-9
2022 Record Against the Spread – 4-12-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Baker Mayfield, (DT) Greg Gaines, (RB) Chase Edmonds, (DT) Calijah Kancey
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Tom Brady, (OT) Donovan Smith, (RB) Leonard Fournette, (DT) Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT) Akiem Hicks, (CB) Sean Murphy-Bunting
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
A late reversal decision from quarterback Tom Brady altered the course of the 2022 season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The future Hall of Famer returned to guide the team under first year head coach Todd Bowles, in what would end up being his final season. The announcement from Brady resulted in several other veterans either joining the team, or restructuring deals as the team wanted to make one more run at a potential Super Bowl. Things never clicked for Brady and the offense, as injuries to the offensive line forced the team to be reliant on short passing, and an inability to run the football. Despite finishing with a losing 8-9 record, it was good enough to win the NFC South. Their season, and the career of their legendary quarterback ended in the first round in a lopsided loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #19
For all of Tom Brady’s greatness on the field, we may end up realizing just how valuable he was when he is no longer on the field. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling with Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, with young Kyle Trask waiting in the wings should he struggle early in the season. We’re not here to pile on Baker Mayfield, but make no mistake about it, despite a bevy of great commercials he is no Tom Brady. The pieces are still somewhat here in Tampa, but at the end of the day this is still very much a quarterback driven league. The offensive line should be a little better this year than it was a season ago, anchored by left tackle Tristen Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen. The running game is a bit of an unknown at this moment as the Bucs moved on from Leonard Fournette and will hand the keys to last year’s third round pick Rachaad White and journeyman Chase Edmonds. Behind the somewhat improved O-line, White should be able to give them a little more pop at the position than the poor rushing attack we watched in 2022. The receiver tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still here and as good of a duo as you’ll find across the league. The big difference from the past couple of years is there isn’t a lot of proven depth behind the two stars unless Russell Gage can get healthy and work his way back in. Cade Otton is the epitome of average at tight end, which normally would be ok. The big issue that we could see here is Baker Mayfield loves throwing to the tight end, so having someone a little more agile would be a more ideal scenario. Let’s see how Mayfield can perform with a full workload of camp, and whether or not he maintains the starting quarterback role for the duration of the season.
There is still a lot to like when you break down the defense of the Buccaneers, despite losing some contributing players from the past few seasons. The defensive line should once again be good as they used their draft to select Calijah Kancey to play next to massive stud Vita Vea. They also brought over the highly underrated Greg Gaines to give them rotational depth needed for the big men on the interior, and veteran William Gholston is still in the mix. The most intriguing player to focus on is last year’s top pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who has a similar skill set to what they had in Jason Pierre-Paul. For this defense to be successful, they’ll need the youngster to rack up pressure and double digit sack totals, something we’re expecting him to do. The linebackers are still very much a strength as they were surprisingly able to get a bit of a hometown discount and bring back Lavonte David in the middle. David is still playing at a high level, and next to Devin White and a healthy Shaq Barrett leads a very talented group. The starters in the secondary led by safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. are a quality unit, however there is truly no proven depth behind them. The DBs should benefit from a formidable pass rush in Tampa and need to make plays when the opportunities are there.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 24th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
The quarterback play in Tampa Bay scares the heck out of us, as it does most experts and casual fans. However, this team actually has a pretty darn good roster when you look at both sides of the ball. That’s our way of saying we expect this team to be a little better than a lot of others outside of Tampa do. If Baker Mayfield can even be remotely serviceable, as he was in limited action with the Rams last year, don’t sleep on this team in the NFC South. Yes, that is a massive “if”.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
Because we do have loftier expectations than most, and have this team graded a little higher, don’t shy away from a potential bet getting points with this team if you like the matchup. There are a lot of veterans on the roster who are going to be playing hard, certainly early in the season, and if no one else runs away with the division. Tampa is a team that could finish with a win-loss record below .500, with an ATS record above that mark.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Rachaad White (RB), Cade Otton (TE)
The Bucs are committed to running the football better in 2023, and with a healthier and slightly improved offensive line, they should be able to do that. Rachaad White should have every opportunity to carry the load in the offense and has some potential burst. Cade Otton is another potential sleeper mainly because Baker Mayfield loves throwing to tight ends. He’ll be a cheap DFS option, or could provide you with depth at the position.
Atlanta Falcons
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DE) Calais Campbell, (S) Jessie Bates III, (LB) Bud Dupree, (CB) Jeff Okudah, (TE) Johnnu Smith, (WR) Mack Hollins, (QB) Taylor Heinecke, (DT) David Onyemata, (RB) Bijan Robinson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Marcus Mariota, (CB) Isaiah Oliver
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
For the second season in a row the Atlanta Falcons finished the year with a 7-10 record, which resulted in the team missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. Having moved on from longtime franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, Atlanta handed the keys to the offense to Marcus Mariota, in a move that saw more downs than ups. The Falcons managed to run the ball as well as any team in the league, but the passing game stalled as they were unable to move the ball through the air at times. More detrimentally, the defense continued a several year trend of ranking in the bottom half of the league, and was near one of the worst in 2022. The season ended with Marcus Mariota benched, and rookie Desmond Ridder gaining some starts to wrap up the year.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #7
There’s a fair amount of hype around the Atlanta Falcons entering the season and after breaking down where they are currently, it’s easy to see why. General manager Terry Fontenot has really done a masterful job crafting a roster that was basically in a rebuild mode after the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones era came to a close. Much like the Buccaneers though, there is one very big potential hole at the most important position on the field. Desmond Ridder will be the quarterback to start the season, and how he performs will ultimately determine how this team performs. The Falcons certainly have done a nice job setting him up with weapons around him, so we’ll find out if Ridder can play in this league sooner rather than later. Atlanta has a very good offensive line, although when you break them down as a collective unit, they are better run blockers than pass blockers. That’s not a horrible thing, especially since they’re good overall, but with a young quarterback, you want him to have as much comfortability in the pocket as possible. As far as running the football goes, it’s very possible this team leads the league in rushing when it’s all said and done. Atlanta passed up some other potential areas, including QB to select Bijan Robinson with their first draft pick, and he could be an absolute monster. Many scouts believe Robinson is the top running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. With last year’s underrated Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson also on the roster, it’s safe to say running the football should be a breeze for this team. What we aren’t sure of is how well they’ll be able to throw it when they need and want to? The Falcons will get tight end Kyle Pitts back healthy and they hope he can finally become the force they drafted him to be. They brought Johnnu Smith in for some depth, and also added Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller for some receiver depth behind last year’s top pick Drake London. Let’s see what Ridder can do with this supporting cast with backup quarterback Taylor Heinecke anxiously wanting a shot to lead the team.
Another disappointing season for the defense in Atlanta led to some changes with the roster in a search to finally make this unit respectable. After basically being the lone defensive lineman, Grady Jarrett finally has some help around him heading into the season. Calais Campbell and David Onyemata were brought in to bolster what has been a weak spot for several years. Campbell may not be the dominant player he was five years ago, but in re-watching his video from last season, he’s still a very good player. And of course we know he’s a great locker room guy for a defense as well. The linebackers are still a little questionable as they’ll be relying on a couple of unproven players. They did bring over former Titan veteran pass rusher Bud Dupree, which should help a bit in pass rush situations. The secondary is retooled and like Grady Jarrett, A.J. Terrell now has some help around him. Jessie Bates III joins from the Bengals, and former top pick Jeff Okudah will be asked to man the spot opposite Terrell. Big improvement is expected from this defense, and the BetCrushers expect to see that improvement.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 32nd Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over +110, under -135)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
Desmond Ridder very well may not be the answer at quarterback for the Falcons, but he is sure set up to be successful for sure. With what most regard to be the easiest, or one of the easiest schedules in the league, and what should be an improved defense, this team could win double digit games and absolutely take the NFC South. In fact, if you’re looking for a plus money division winner, they might be the best team to go with. We’re going to temper expectations just a bit though because of the QB position. This could be a fun season in Atlanta, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Futures, Against the Spread
To repeat, if you want a potential plus money future play, look at this Falcons team to win the NFC South. The Saints are probably rightly favored, however the odds for Atlanta should be closer than they are currently sitting. As far as the season goes, Atlanta will potentially be short favorites against several teams on their schedule. Realistically, they’ll be a fair amount better. Until the oddsmakers catch up a bit, lay the points with this team against bad opponents.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Bijan Robinson (RB), Tyler Allgeier (RB)
He’s a hot name in fantasyland so you probably won’t get Bijan Robinson if you’re picking after number four or so, but if he falls you should grab him. The less obvious play is to get backup running back Tyler Allgeier, who is a forgotten man after a fantastic rookie campaign. He’s an obvious handcuff behind Robinson, however he could be productive even with Robinson on the field. The Falcons will run the ball a lot, and with defenses “catching their breath” when he comes in the game, he could absolutely have some big games along the way.
Carolina Panthers
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Andy Dalton, (RB) Miles Sanders, (S) Vonn Bell, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (WR) Adam Thielen, (WR) D.J. Chark, (QB) Bryce Young, (DE) Justin Houston
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) D.J. Moore, (RB) D’Onta Foreman, (LB) Cory Littleton
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Normally when a head coach is fired five games into a season, you can assume things did not go well for a team in the National Football League. While that was certainly the case for the Carolina Panthers, their 2022 campaign did under interim coach Steve Wilks, after he replaced the departed Matt Rhule. The team went a respectable 6-6 to finish the season, and actually had a chance to sneak into the playoffs had they managed to upset the Buccaneers in a game they needed to win. The team rotated through different quarterbacks, ultimately leading them to selecting Bryce Young with the top overall pick in the draft.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #16
Having the number one overall pick in the NFL draft can be a blessing or a curse as it can set your organization up for years of success, or set you back for several years. The Panthers are living that right now with the selection of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick in the draft. Young is listed as the starter on their depth chart, however it’s not a foregone conclusion the rookie will be the week one starter. Andy Dalton was brought in for veteran guidance, and Carolina could opt to let him begin the season. New head coach Frank Reich is a bit of a gambler, so chances are he will roll the dice with the rookie. The Panthers offensive line has the potential to become one of the better in the league, so how much Young plays might depend on how well they can do with pass protection. If you looked up the word average, you’d probably get a breakdown of the skill position players in Carolina. Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard are set to handle the running back duties, and Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark were brought in as experienced, if not explosive receivers. Johnathan Mingo was a trendy name during the draft, and while he’s anything but a sure thing, he certainly has a lot of upside with his quickness and route-running. Tight end Hayden Hurst was brought over from the Bengals, but we’re expecting a bit of a falloff from last year without Joe Burrow and the receivers he was playing with surrounding him. Realistically, this season should be looked at as growth for Bryce Young in hopefully what is a long and productive career in Carolina.
There is a lot to like when you study the Carolina Panthers defense, yet somehow they always seem to finish around the middle of the pack amongst the league. Is that a matter of coaching, a matter of consistency, or something else? We don’t have the answer to that question, but we may know how big of a factor coaching may have played, as Carolina will welcome new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in his first season in the role. The Panthers defense should be able to get after the quarterback as veteran Justin Houston joins Brian Burns to give them a nice pass rush duo. Much like we mentioned with Calais Campbell, if you watch the film on Justin Houston, he still had a lot of burst last year in Baltimore. With linebackers being a strength, Carolina really needs their defensive line to eat up blockers and keep them clean. That will require better play from former first round pick Derrick Brown, and Henry Anderson and Shy Tuttle upfront. The back end is one of the deepest secondary groups in the league as adding Vonn Bell to an already talented position group makes them even better.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 28th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -135, under +115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-12
So the Carolina Panthers are expected to win around eight games if we’re looking at this projection correctly? Yeah, we’re not buying that. They’ll win a few in the divisions and grab a few more, but this is one of the worst teams in the league. Plus money to stay under 7.5, you can sign us up. If you enjoy playing alt-futures, you could even consider going under 6.5 for some extra payout. Carolina may be on the right track, but they’re not ready to compete in 2023.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Under, Futures
This offense is not going to be good, even if Bryce Young comes in and plays fairly well. They simply lack the firepower to consistently put up points on a weekly basis. Their defense may keep them in some games, so even if some lower totals are posted, you may want to consider looking at unders if betting anything with this team. As far as win totals go, this team could really struggle if Young isn’t great. The only thing that would scare us from playing under their total of 7.5 is if Andy Dalton starts a chunk of games, giving them a better shot to win right away.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Miles Sanders (RB)
Don’t waste too much time on anyone from this Carolina Panther group for fantasy football purposes. Bryce Young has a lot to learn, and the receivers are really just mediocre players at this point in time. He’s not worth an early pick by any means, but Miles Sanders would be the one layer who might be worth taking a shot on if the price is right. He should get some decent workload, even though this team could be behind and throwing a bit. We’d steer clear on the Panthers altogether if we’re being honest.
New Orleans Saints
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Derek Carr, (RB) Jamaal Williams, (DT) Khalen Saunders, (DT) Bryan Bresee
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Marcus Davenport, (DT) David Onyemata, (QB) Andy Dalton, (S) Justin Evans, (WR) Marquez Callaway, (WR) Deonte Harty
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Sean Payton era ended in New Orleans after the 2021 season, and Dennis Allen moved from his role as defensive coordinator into the head coaching spot. Things didn’t go great for Allen and the Saints as they had their first losing season since 2016, and finished sub .500 with a 7-10 mark. There were injuries on the offense, and Andy Dalton winded up starting for almost the entire season. The defense looked a step slower at times, particularly with their pass rush, yet they still managed to be a top-ten unit in the league. Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave was a bright spot, notching a 1,000 yard season and providing optimism for the 2023 season.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #21
Optimism is high in New Orleans as the Saints open the season as the favorite to win the NFC South. Despite a talented roster in Atlanta, it’s easy to get excited about the possibilities for one of the perennial contenders in the conference. The offense appears poised to rebound after a disappointing performance in 2022, for a few key reasons. First, and most notably, they upgraded the quarterback position bringing in former Raider Derek Carr to lead the offense. Whether you are a believer in Derek Carr or not, he will give them more than they’ve had at QB since Drew Brees final season. Things will improve if the offensive line can stay healthy, something they weren’t able to do a year ago. This is a cohesive unit that plays their best when they’re all on the field together, even more so than most other teams. Another big reason to be excited is we may finally see the return of wide receiver Michael Thomas for the first time in what seems like years. With last year’s star rookie Chris Olave establishing himself as a legitimate WR1 in the league, Thomas could make this offense very difficult to defend. The tight end position is crowded, but Juwan Johnson could be a breakout leader if he has enough opportunities. Running back is a little shakier, if only for the fact Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season. Jamaal Williams was brought in to be more of the goal line and change of pace back, but he’ll likely have to carry the load during that opening three game stretch. Derek Carr has a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and a fresh start in New Orleans could be exactly what he needs to remind the rest of the world he can still play at a high level in this league.
Once again we saw a pretty good defense in New Orleans as the team was a top-ten performer throughout the year. If we’re optimistic on the Saints offense as written above, we’re down a little bit on their defense here. They moved on from defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and David Onyemata, and replaced them with former Chief Khalen Saunders and rookie Brian Bresee. Many scouts had Bresee ranked lower than where New Orleans selected him, and Saunders was an average player at best in Kansas City. Add in Cameron Jordan being another year older as the leader on this line and it just simply isn’t the dominant grouping that is was a few seasons back. The Saints are hopeful Demario Davis can continue to play well as he’s also entering the twilight of his career, although he can at the very least help provide leadership for his younger running mates Pete Werner and Zack Baun. The secondary has some big names we’ve all heard of, however the common theme seems to be they’re more bark than bite at this point. Even though it probably sounds like it, we’re truly not dogging out this Saints defense, we simply don’t believe they’ll be quite as good as they have been recently.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 31st Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over +105, under -125)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
The Saints are going to be a in a dogfight with the Falcons, and maybe even the Buccaneers to win this division, but they certainly have the ability to take it. Derek Carr is really the key for this team as they hope he is the missing piece to get the offense going. The defense needs to hold up, which feels like it’s hanging on by a thread. But if the offensive line and Michael Thomas can stay on the field, they’ll be better than they were a season ago. We’ll give them an ever so slight edge against the Falcons to start the year.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You probably gathered that we’re semi-believing in this Saints team and feel they’re undervalued heading into the season. With a defense like they have and the return of playmakers on the offense, there is no reason this team won’t be competitive week in and week out. If they’re getting points, consider taking them, or even playing them as a true underdog moneyline play in the right situations.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Juwan Johnson (TE), Michael Thomas (WR), Jamaal Williams (RB)
Chris Olave should be in line for true fantasy greatness so if you have a chance to get him he’s definitely worth a roster spot. We’re looking a little deeper with Juwan Johnson being a name who has become popular with fantasy football gurus. The big tight end is a legitimate red zone threat and should get plenty of looks in this offense. Michael Thomas has been somewhat forgotten, understandably so, but it was just a few seasons ago he was as good of a producer as there was in the league. Don’t expect that, but with his ADP, he might be worth a shot. And if you need someone early in the season, Jamaal Williams should get a lot of work without the suspended Alvin Kamara. He’s also a goal line monster.
