ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Chicago Bears +160
Green Bay Packers +195
Minnesota Vikings +240
Detroit Lions +1000

Doing some reading of NFL writers there is no consensus pick on who will win this division in 2019. The Bears are slight preseason favorites followed closely by the Packers and Vikings. Lions fans… Well, maybe next year? This certainly does look like a three horse race and trying to predict the winner is no easy task. Can the Bears duplicate what they did a year ago with dominating defense and an improving Mitch Trubisky? Will a new coach in Green Bay and a healthy Aaron Rodgers be able to leapfrog their rival? Or can Kirk Cousins rebound and perform at a higher level to re-capture the magic the Vikings had a couple of years ago?

Chicago Bears

2018 Record – 12-4
2018 Record Against the Spread – 12-4

We’ll admit we were late jumping on the Chicago Bears bandwagon but once we accepted the fact they were good we were able to squeeze some later season cover wins with them. Mitchell Trubisky defied a lot of critics and proved that he belongs as a starting quarterback in this league. His continued development will be a key to what this Bear’s team can do in 2019. Tarik Cohen will get his chance to shine as a full-time featured running back with the departure of Jordan Howard to the Eagles. Based on his explosiveness that would appear to be a great thing but we’ve seen a lot of instances in the past where backs can struggle when assuming the lead role. The wide receivers and tight ends are solid if not spectacular but everyone’s play is elevated by the strong play of the offensive line. It’s hard to know if the Bear’s offense will be improved or take a step back but this team is still built on a ridiculously strong defense.

A total of 7 players on the Bear’s defense found their way onto the Pro Bowl roster in 2018. The big loss actually comes on the coaching side of things as Vic Fangio is no longer at the helm. But this defense is stacked and returns all of the key contributors from a year ago and added Haha Clinton-Dix at the safety position. In the free agency and salary cap era having this much talent on the defensive side of the ball is basically unheard of. If there is an Achilles heel it would be that the depth in the front seven is a little thin. If they can avoid injuries it won’t be a problem, but if they do get hit with the injury bug their strength could turn into a weakness quickly. Something else to keep an eye on with this team is the special teams group. They were good a year ago but will look a little different this time around. The Bears made believers out of a lot of people last season and with this defense in tact they’ll be looking to do it again.

2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 5th (.520
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
This season win total prop seems too low at 9 and we’ve already locked that over in. 10-6 or 11-5 seem very plausible. Barring substantial injuries, this team should absolutely be in the hunt for the playoffs.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Bears crushed against the spread in 2018 and the sportsbooks are likely to adjust accordingly. The Bears defense should have them in and winning a lot of games again this year, but covering could be a totally different story.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Bears (DST)
It will be tempting to nab Tarik Cohen this season but we’re going to pass, at least early in the year. Overspending for a defense is not our philosophy, but the Bears are the one legit unit you’ll be able to lean on every week during the season to give you an edge.

Detroit Lions

2018 Record – 6-10
2018 Record Against the Spread – 9-7

Matt Patricia has a clear vision of how he wants his team to play each week and we all know he learned from the best. So why have so many of the Belichek disciples struggled as head coaches? The Lions paint a picture of understanding the challenges. First and foremost, there is no Tom Brady at the quarterback position on any other teams. That’s not a slight on Matt Stafford who has been one of the more effective and underappreciated players at QB during his career. But when you look at what has made the Patriots successful it’s obvious that other teams are clearly lacking. This Lion’s team needs to be looked at as a project if they want to try to emulate what New England has done. In the modern day NFL organizations are often quick to pull the plug on something that doesn’t have immediate success. Patricia is heading in the direction he wants to go but there is still a lot to be done before this team can be in the upper echelon of the league. On the offensive side of the ball it’s easy to get excited about what they are starting to do here. The huge loss of Stafford’s go-to guy Golden Tate was filled with the signing of Danny Amendola. Using their number one draft pick on TE T.J. Hockenson could provide a matchup advantage from him if he can pick up the NFL game and speed quickly. And Kenny Golladay proved he is a solid number one caliber receiver on the outside. Having a healthy Kerryon Johnson to start the season should provide the running game with a boost. The big concern on this offense is the big guys upfront. In order for weapons to be able to do what they need to do, the offensive line has to handle their business. The Lions are going to need much improved play from this mediocre unit if they want to take advantage of the talents they have at the skill positions.

The defensive side of the ball is where this team could really struggle. The loss of Ziggy Ansah was filled with the signing of one of Patricia’s former guys in Trey Flowers but it’s hard to picture Flowers as an impact guy in Detroit. There are a few known entities in Darius Slay, Quandre Diggs and Damon “Snacks” Harrison, but the rest of the defense is a lot of unproven names. Can Patricia work some magic and get top level play out of mid-level talent on that defense as they’re often able to do in New England? This team seems headed on the right path, but it really feels like they need another good offseason and some more experience playing together to really be able to compete with the other teams in the division.

2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 19th (.496)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-11
We locked in the under early on this team as their 6-10 record from a year ago seems about right for them as they don’t seem substantially better. Truth be told, it’s more about the divisional competition than it is a reflection of the Lions. 1-5 in the division seems possible which doesn’t leave a lot of margin for losses with the rest of the schedule.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
This is really predicated on how the Lion’s offensive line performs but in a division that can sometimes be slugging it out in low-scoring games we think there are a lot of points being scored and allowed by this group, particularly on the road. If you enjoy betting the over, this is one team you’ll want to take a shot with.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Kerryon Johnson (RB), Kenny Golladay (WR)
Kerryon Johnson is another high-risk / high-reward guy for this year in fantasy football. If you’re a risk taker go for him as he could have a breakout season. But remember you’re working against a history of Lion’s running backs who have almost never been productive on the field consistently or during fantasy land. Kenny Golladay has moved up the ranks on draft boards and we’re all in on him. He can be your cornerstone WR1 and should put some nice numbers up this year. One extra nugget on this team: We like T.J. Hockenson as a pick for the Lions but we’re gonna skip him in terms of fantasy for this year. Rookie tight ends have traditionally struggled in their first season so we’re gonna need to see some actual results before he’s a part of our plans.

Green Bay Packers

2018 Record – 6-9-1
2018 Record Against the Spread – 6-9-1

An argument can be made in both directions that the Packers had a very good offseason or a not so good offseason. The most meaningful movement was at the head coaching position where long-time leader Mike McCarthy is out and Matt LaFleur takes over the reigns. McCarthy was a successful coach, but it certainly seemed as though his message had gotten stale and it was time to move on. Will the change ignite Aaron Rodgers and bring back some of the magic we’ve grown accustomed to seeing earlier in his career? The Packers need to hope that’s exactly what they’ll get as Rodgers window is slowly starting to close. The Pack used a draft pick on Billy Turner to help upgrade the offensive line which needs to play better and keep Rodgers upright and healthy. One area that should quietly shine is at the running back position. If the Packers don’t put an emphasis on running the football with Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams they won’t find success this season. Everyone knows Rodgers can carry the team when needed, but that needs to be at the end of games occasionally, not every week. Rodgers finally got on the same page with Davante Adams and this duo is as good as you’ll find in the league. Green Bay is putting a lot of faith on the other side with Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The true mystery on this team is Jimmy Graham at the tight end position. It’s hard to know if he just isn’t on the same page as Rodgers or if his physical abilities have dropped off that much over the past couple of seasons.

The Packers were active defensively during free agency as some of their well-known faces like Clay Matthews, Nick Perry and Jake Ryan all moved on. To replace them they went all in offering big contracts to Adrian Amos, Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. It certainly seems like they way overspent for those guys but for them to be competitive they really needed to do it. The defensive line should be a strength on this team and make up for some very average talent in the back seven. The success of this team is going to really boil down to three main things. Will Aaron Rodgers be hungry and be able to stay healthy? Can this team stay balanced running and throwing the football? And will Matt LaFleur be the missing spark this team desperately needs?

2019 Strength of Schedule -Tied 14th (.504)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
We took some heat from Pack fans in a win total article we posted and we absolutely get it. Betting against Aaron Rodgers is always a risky proposition. But we’re sticking to it as this team really seems like a .500 squad and that’s IF Rodgers can stay healthy. It’s certainly possible this team could win 10 games but we’re going under.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Packers are one of the most publicly wagered teams in the league every year. With Rodgers playing QB novice fans are quick to lay points with them even on the road. Going back since 2015 this team has been one of the worst in the league against the spread. Even if they’re able to win more games this year it’s likely they’ll continue to struggle covering the spread.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Aaron Jones (RB), Davante Adams (WR)
If the Packers use him correctly and stick to the running game you can expect to see some big numbers from Aaron Jones. He has the ability to grind yards out every week and should see the end zone with a fair amount of regularity. Davante Adams is generally not considered as skilled as the OBJs, Julios, and Deandres of the league but he should be every bit as productive. Rodgers clear number one target, don’t be afraid to use an early selection on him.

Minnesota Vikings

2018 Record – 8-7-1
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-7-1

The Minnesota Vikings were expected to make a run at the Super Bowl in 2018 but this team struggled to find any kind of consistency and ended up missing the playoffs. With that as a backstory you might expect that they would have been active in the offseason but for the most part they really weren’t. That may seem odd until we look at what the reasoning for that would be. For one thing this roster is very similar to the roster that was close to making the Super Bowl just two years earlier. And it certainly appears that shelling out the ridiculous payday to QB Kirk Cousins left them without a lot of ability to add to other spots on the roster. The Vikes don’t need to necessarily add a lot to this roster, they really just need Kirk Cousins to play at least somewhere near the level they paid him to play at. The team did look to the draft to improve both the offensive line position and add TE Irv Smith. When you look at this offense there is zero reason that Kirk Cousins shouldn’t be successful. They have the best wide receiver duo in the league with a former first round pick as their 3rd receiver. Dalvin Cook is a beast at the running back position, but his inability to stay healthy has to be a little concerning to the team, particularly with a lack of depth behind him. Circling back, if this team can’t put points on the board this season, the Vikings will need to admit that Cousins was not who they thought he was.

Some good news on defense was the return of Anthony Barr at linebacker. It was thought he’d be gone but the team was able to hold onto him to pair with his buddy Eric Kendricks. Both did not play great a year ago and they’ll need a better effort if this defense wants to be more dominant. The defensive line is still a strength as they can get after the quarterback and Linval Joseph will hold it down in the middle. Andrew Sendejo left via free agency at strong safety but overall this is still one of the better secondary units in the conference with Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Harrison Smith. Another area that merits some concern is in the return game. This team had been consistently near the top over the past few years with Cordarelle Patterson and Marcus Sherels running back kicks so figuring out a way to continue that is important. Make no mistake about it though, you can break this team’s future success down in two words: Kirk Cousins. SKOL.

2019 Strength of Schedule – 10th (.512)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
We’d like to go on record right now to state that we’re not betting this over win total. The 10-6 prediction is based on what this team SHOULD be doing, not what they actually will do. We learned our lesson last season betting too heavily on Captain Kirk and this team. Cousins seems like a good dude so deep down we’re pulling for him to get it together, however the fans and organization may not be as forgiving as we are.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
If you were studious enough to figure out the formula you know that Kirk Cousins played very well against sub .500 competition and very poorly against over .500 competition. Load up on Cousins and Thielen/Diggs if they’re playing a weak opponent or go against them when they’re playing a stronger opponent and chances are you’ll be doing pretty well.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Kirk Cousins (QB), Dalvin Cook (RB)
After all the Cousins analysis you might wonder why we’d have Cousins listed as a QB to watch. As is the case with the previously mentioned prop bets playing Cousins in certain matchups can actually really help you. With his injury history you’re playing with some fire taking Dalvin Cook in a league setting, however he is poised to have a fantastic season if he can steer clear of the injury report. Thielen and Diggs are always solid but sometimes it’s one over the other and that’s a little tricky to try to predict.