Dartmouth played exceptional defense in last night’s matchup at South Florida…for the first half, anyways. Turnovers plagued the Big Green while USF Coach Brian Gregory made significant adjustments at the half, yielding a huge second half for the Bulls. That notches a loss for us but we’ve got a solid card of five plays in the NCAAB Road Dog Report for 12/7/2019. Let’s roll!
(667) Miami (OH) @ Evansville -4
The 4-4 Miami Redhawks cross the state line to face a 6-3 Evansville team that made a lot of waves with their November 12th win at Kentucky. The Purple Aces have some momentum as winners of three straight, including two at home. Evansville can put some points on the board and is buoyed by very good three-point shooting. These guys get to the line often and cash in at the charity stripe.
Miami has dropped three straight, including a bad loss against Northern Kentucky and a close one at Wright State. We have them rated slightly above Evansville, primarily due to a strength of schedule that is a notch better. Juniors Nike Sibande and Dalonte Brown are key to the Redhawks keeping this game close, although last year’s MAC All-Freshman Team’s Mekhi Lairy has stepped into the role as a key conduit for this offense.
On the Money
Both teams have been overall losers at the betting window this season. Miami’s 2-5 ATS mark leaves a lot to be desired, although the Aces’ 3-5 ATS record is not much better. Evansville has not covered their last four as home favorites. In all honestly, there is not much to read into their performances against the number. I expect this to be close so taking the +4 should get us to the window. Oddly enough, this is the biggest point spread in today’s Road Dog Report.
(689) Hofstra @ St. Bonaventure -3
Hofstra found a winning groove on their recent road trip by taking five of their last six. The Pride has been a scoring machine, aided in part by good rebounding and an opportunistic defense. Guards Eli Pemberton and Desure Buie provide their team with a good 1-2 punch on both ends of the court. They played without Jalen Ray for most of the last game against Canisius and he is questionable for today’s matchup.
The Bonnies have relied heavily on their defense to keep their record at an even 4-4. Their 40.2 FG% pales in comparison to Hofstra’s 45.5%, but the difference in this game could be at the free throw line. St. Bonaventure has out-fouled their opponents 151-132 while Hofstra has been much more effective in this regard, keeping their foul differential at 143-180. Both teams shoot well from the stripe, but the Pride’s 9th-best FT percentage could punish the home team if they stay true to their foul-prone form.
On the Money
Hofstra is on a nice 4-1 ATS run; the blemish was their loss at San Diego. The Bonnies have won four out of five straight up and are on a 2-0 ATS streak. St. Bonaventure just missed a 6-point favorite in their last home game against a bad Mercer team. We consider Hofstra to be a substantially better squad than Mercer, yet the odds imply they are only three points better. I’ll argue that the Pride is undervalued in this spot and the difference will be made at the free throw line this afternoon, even without Jalen Ray.
(709) S. Illinois @ S. Mississippi -2
The Southern Illinois Salukis look to even their record in Hattiesburg as they take on the 2-7 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. These are a pair of relatively-young squads that need to stabilize their performance and get an important win. The Golden Eagles rely heavily on a six-man rotation that has been effective in creating second chances and decent ball movement to cash in.
Southern Illinois has shot the ball well during this three-game winning streak. Their front court got a boost from freshman Marcus Domask, creating a formidable pair with senior center Barret Benson. Just like the Hofstra handicap, a significant difference should be realized in the foul department. The Salukis have been more disciplined with a positive foul differential of 126-149, where as Southern Mississippi has out-fouled their opponents 149-114. Even more notable is that the Golden Eagles have taken 90 shots from the stripe but their opponents had 184!
On the Money
I’ll be blunt in saying that Southern Mississippi has been a blowtorch to the bankroll lately. They haven’t covered since November 14th, missing the number by 11, 17, 13, and 3 points (although we graded them as a push at Gonzaga during that run). The Salukis have covered three straight, including a road dog cover at St. Louis on December 1st. SIU is shooting better and playing more disciplined basketball, which is a solid formula against the Golden Eagles today.
(717) IPFW @ Illinois Chicago -2
IPFW rides a four-game win streak into Chicago to face the 3-6 UIC Flames. The Mastodons’ 6-5 record reflects where we have them rated, which is about middle-of-the-road. Their solid 47.1% field goal shooting is led by the strong backcourt of Jarred Godfrey and Brian Patrick, who have accounted for 40% of the team’s points. In fact, the Mastodons’ worst field goal percentage on this winning streak is 47.3%. IPFW is not afraid to shoot from beyond the arc, something that has been advantageous for them at a 36.3% rate.
Illinois Chicago relies heavily on the play of senior guard Tarkus Ferguson. Ferguson isn’t the greatest shooter on the court, but he gets a lot of looks and creates scoring with excellent ball skills. The Flames’ key shortcomings are poor shooting (39.9%) and a lot of turnovers. However, IPFW is even worse than Chicago in the turnover department. This is a game where the Flames should struggle to score enough to win the game, let alone cover as a short favorite.
On the Money
Both teams are .500 ATS this season, though they are both trending positively in this department. IPFW has covered three in a row and Chicago has covered their last two. Both of the Flames’ recent covers have come as road dogs (something the Road Dog Report greatly appreciates) after failing to win as home favorites against Canisius and Mercer. The Mastodons are 2-1 in their last three as road dogs, falling to Ohio State in between their cashes. This is a scenario where we have IPFW rated significantly higher than Chicago, but the oddsmakers have made them an undeserved home favorite today.
(763) Sacramento St. @ Cal St. Fullerton -1
It’s Big Sky vs. Big West this evening in Fullerton as the 5-1 Hornets square off against the 3-6 Titans. Sacramento State has been a fairly unremarkable team that has made their mark with defense. They’ve allowed their opponents to score more than 60 points only once. This complements Fullerton’s difficulty in putting 60 or more on the scoreboard; something they’ve done three times in their nine games. Fullerton’s reliance on the three-ball is problematic (45-165, 27.3%), especially given that the Hornets have clamped down on opponents’ deep shots (19-94, 20.2%).
On the Money
This is a game where the handicap is primarily based on market performance. Sacramento State is 4-0 ATS, three of which have come on the road. They’ve been favorites twice and dogs twice. Fullerton’s only cover as a favorite came at home against Southeast Missouri State; a significantly worse team than the Hornets. The spread is irrelevant in this one with Sacramento State posing a significant threat to the Titans.
BetCrushers NCAAB Road Dog Betting Card:
- Miami (OH) +4
- Hofstra +3
- S. Illinois +2
- IPFW +2
- Sacramento St. +1
We’ve got a healthy card in the Road Dog Report for 12/7/2019. Be sure to keep a lookout for future reports by following us on Twitter or subscribing to email alerts below:
