Fresh off of a fantastic Christmas holiday break, I’m ready to get back to the college hoops handicapping grind after an annoyingly-slow start to the season. Our Week 17 NFL plays are nailed down and we are anxiously looking forward to a strong postseason. Today’s NCAAB card is short with only two games, which finds me going back to the well on a team in the Road Dog Report for 12/27/2019.
(1643) Coppin St. @ Mount Saint Mary’s -5
The 4-9 Coppin State Eagles travel just outside metropolitan Baltimore for tonight’s battle against the 3-9 Mount Saint Mary’s Mountaineers. Both teams are mired in losing streaks. Coppin State has dropped their last three and MSM has lost four in a row. Furthermore, all seven of these combined losses were also ATS losses.
Coppin State’s offense continues to be anemic, cracking the 70-point plateau only twice in their last five games. However, the Mountaineers could outdo Coppin State when it comes to futility. MSM does not shoot well and has a disadvantage against the Eagles on the boards.
Coppin State’s M.O. appears to be falling behind in the first half then playing with a fire under their asses to amass a second-half comeback. Last weak’s 91-60 beatdown at Miami is an interesting case in which they put up an anemic 20 points in the first half then doubled it in the second half. They were clearly overmatched against the Hurricanes, so a more equitable comparison could be their 9-point loss at UMBC (where I had a +7 ticket on). The Eagles were behind 26-42 at half but played with urgency to outscore their opponent 51-44 in the final twenty minutes.
Coppin has yielded 34, 42, & 43 points in the first half of their last three games (all losses). Mount Saint Mary’s first half scoring was 21, 25, 21, 34, 27, & 24 in their last six games. Despite Coppin’s tendency to get down early, is MSM in a position to take advantage offensively?
On the Money
I noted in the 12/15/2019 Report that Coppin State was 13-15 points better than last year’s team. In the meantime, I knocked this Coppin State Eagles team down about 2.5 points after a great start ATS. Ratings-wise, I put MSM in a similar range as UMBC overall but without as much offense. Both teams are rested from the holiday break and should be ready to head into conference play with solid games tonight, right?
Coppin State enters tonight’s game with a 9-4 ATS mark after starting 9-1. Similarly, Mount Saint Mary’s holds a 6-5 ATS mark after a 6-1 start. Both squads clearly outpaced market expectations through November with their impressive showings against the number early. Did oddsmakers adjust accordingly, or have the teams come back down to the level they should be on? Even after the Coppin State downgrade, I find -3 to be a fair line on the Mountaineers’ home court so give me the +5 with an expectation for a close game at the half.
Be sure to follow the BetCrushers on Twitter or by subscribing to email alerts when new handicapping articles are released. There’s a long way to go from this year’s 14-20 start to reach last year’s 100-79 mark! The grind continues with Coppin State +5 in the Road Dog Report for 12/27/2019…
