Saturday was simply disappointing as three Road Dogs won outright, five were thumped, and one lost by a deuce in OT. It’s almost time for me to hit the road for the holidays, so we’ll break down a game and let the college hoops and NFL action get rolling. Here’s the BetCrushers’ Road Dog Report for 12/22/2019:
(791) Florida Atlantic @ Mercer
The 7-4 Florida Atlantic Owls visit Macon to square off against the 5-7 Mercer Bears. Both of today’s contestants have had a soft schedule heading into conference play. Ironically, neither team’s SOS will benefit from their opponent in this game either. Both teams have a pair of foreign-born big men to anchor their front courts. FAU plays a fairly nondescript game supported by good three-point shooting. Guards Cornelius Taylor and Michael Forrest are the key contributors from beyond the arc. 6’11” sophomore forward Karlis Silins gives the Owls good looks at high-percentage shots to complement their guard play.
Mercer’s offense runs through a trio of senior guards: Ethan Stair, Doordje Dimitrijevic, and Ross Cummings. These three account for over half of the Bears’ offense that moves the ball well to create shots. Keep an eye on transfer guard Jeffrey Gary, who has put in significant minutes and double-digit points in the Bears’ last two games.
On the Money
Let’s face it, both of these teams aren’t going to make a run at an NCAA Tournament berth in late February. When it comes to making money, Mercer has a solid 6-5 ATS record with 3-1 ATS at home. The Bears have been dogs in their last two at home; covering the +9 against Furman and missing big as +2 against Georgia State. They also covered as a short Road Dog in between these home games by pulling away from UNC Wilmington with a solid victory.
Florida Atlantic has not realized much success ATS with a poor 3-6 mark that includes 0-4 away from home. They were easily beaten early in the season as a double-digit dog at Miami and Alabama. Some books had a number for the Owls in their last two home games against Tampa and High Point, in which they covered as double-digit favorites. These are not good comps, though it may hint at some ability to be competitive today.
Looking at these teams ATS performances and weighing them against what the betting market implies, you would think Mercer is the side to be on as a short home favorite. My overall core ratings say FAU -2.5 on a neutral court, which is supported by better overall offensive and defensive ratings (even after adjusting for their weaker competition in the last two games). +2 is a fair number but the extra point can be nice insurance in case it is a tight one down to the wire. Slight edge goes to Mercer for being at home today, but I will take FAU +3 for today’s wager in the Road Dog Report for 12/22/2019.
