We’ve got one hell of a sports day ahead of us! The NFL Wild Card games kick off today and the college hoops slate is massive. I have nine NCAAB tickets but I’ll focus on three handicaps in the Road Dog Report for 1/4/2020.
(707) Eastern Illinois @ Belmont -11.5
Both the 7-6 Eastern Illinois Panthers and 9-5 Belmont Bruins are searching for their first win in The Valley. Belmont looks to rebound from a shocking loss at home against SIU Edwardsville as a 23-point favorite. Longtime Bruins coach Rick Byrd is gone, but Casey Alexander steps in with a fair amount of success at Lipscomb.
The Panthers offer a small lineup predicated on good perimeter shooting and tight defense that generates about eight steals per game. Their 36.3% three-point shooting is primarily led by junior guard Mack Smith and his 38.3% from downtown on 94 shots. Experienced JuCo transfer 6’5″, 230-pound George Dixon has been an effective starter for this squad and will be put to the test as a versatile big-body player. Eastern Illinois must make up for their lack of size with disruptive defense, but it truly comes down to whether they have the hot hand shooting jumpers this afternoon.
Belmont holds a huge mismatch with 6’11” sophomore center, Nick Muszynski, who the Panthers may not have an answer for. He was an instant starter as a freshman and key cog in the Bruins’ run to the NCAA Tournament last year. Muszynski cleans up on the glass and essentially guarantees them 12+ points each game. Don’t sleep on his perimeter shooting, as he can step out and knock down a shot or two from beyond the arc.
On the Money
Both teams have been slightly behind the curve ATS this season. Eastern Illinois comes in 6-6 ATS with a poor 3-6 mark on the road. Adding insult to injury, they’ve failed to cover their last six against Belmont. The Bruins are 6-7 ATS but have been profitable on their home court at 3-2 ATS.
Belmont has been fluky laying double-digit points this season. They’ve dominated teams like Kennesaw State, High Point, and Samford when laying more than 20 points. On the flip side, they failed to cover against Lipscomb twice this season as 10.5- and 17.5-point favorites. Their straight up loss against SIUE is an anomaly that I can’t base too much on.
Eastern Illinois has been back-and-forth against the number this season, going on three different runs. Twice they covered three straight, once they failed to cover three in a row, and are currently on a two-game non-cover streak. The Panthers haven’t caught double digits since their openers at Texas Tech and Wisconsin. Their 3-3 ATS record as a Road Dog has some “close calls” against the number, and I think today’s +11.5 is a couple points heavy although +12 is available early this morning. I’m holding my nose, taking the points with Eastern Illinois, and banking that they’re able to offset Muszynski with their great perimeter shooting.
(1835) New Hampshire @ Hartford -1
The 7-6 New Hampshire Wildcats open America East Conference play at the 7-8 Hartford Hawks. This Wildcats team returns a number of productive players from last season, as opposed to the Hawks who have been required to meld new faces through the course of the year. My handicap for Hartford a few weeks back has not changed significantly. It’s all about the mismatches they create with 6’11” Miroslav Stafl and 6’9″ Hunter Marks. I lost the Wagner +4 ticket against Hartford on December 14th as Stafl and Marks combined for 29 points with 10-11 from the free throw line.
New Hampshire lacks the height that Hartford has, but they have a pair of players who can be tough matchups in their own rights. Forwards Nick Guadarrama and Jayden Martinez are 6’5″ and 6’7″, respectively, serving as dual inside-outside threats. I’m not sure they can go toe-to-toe with Stafl and Marks down low, so it will be up to longtime Wildcats coach Bill Herrion to creatively counter this height issue. Guadarrama and Martinez are excellent shooters, each with over 42% shooting from downtown. Guadarrama hits 63.5% from inside the arc in addition to being a perimeter threat.
On the Money
New Hampshire’s 8-3 ATS record comes with them being a dog in nine games. They were 6-3 ATS in those games and are 2-0 as favorites. Outside of getting blown out at UConn, the Wildcats have a couple interesting road covers. Despite these games taking place in November, New Hampshire almost got the outright win as a 14.5-point dog at Florida International after thumping Coastal Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite. This team has been willing and able to get the money for their backers this season.
Hartford’s 6-6 ATS record is less impressive if you isolate their home games. The Hawks are 2-4 ATS at home, although they’ve managed to cover their last two here (including spoiling my Wagner bet). They beat Cornell 80-76 as a 1-point dog in their last home game. I have Cornell rated a couple points worse than New Hampshire, so it appears that the market is pricing Hartford as the team who has covered their last three overall. That is fair, but I’ll stick to my ratings and look for the Wildcats to get the win although the +1 probably won’t matter.
(1855) Florida A&M @ North Carolina Central -2
MEAC play opens for the 2-9 Florida A&M Rattlers and the 4-10 North Carolina Central Eagles. What’s interesting about the Rattlers’ 2-9 record is they were 0-9 before coming out of left field to upset Iowa State and Seattle as big underdogs. Three of NC Central’s four wins have come against non-D1 teams.
It is tough to rely purely on statistics with a pair of teams like this. Florida A&M has faced an extremely tough schedule and the box scores reflect it. They don’t have a dominant player per se, though guards MJ Randolph and Rod Melton, Jr. have been their go-to scorers. The Rattlers big men DJ Jones and the 300-pound Evins Desir need to step up to counter NC Central’s main man, Jibri Blount. The 6’5″ forward averages nearly a double-double this season with high percentage shots and proficient free throw shooting. Guard Randy Miller, Jr. puts up points as well, but less efficiently.
On the Money
Both teams are used to the underdog role, considering that the Rattlers have yet to be favored this season. In fact, +2 is the shortest number they’ve caught and NC Central was favored only once, covering the -7.5 against SC Upstate in mid-November. The Rattlers are 8-3 ATS and have covered six straight, including those outright wins at Iowa State and Seattle. The Eagles are 5-6 ATS and 1-0 as a favorite. It’s tough to read too much into previous spreads since today’s is very short. Florida A&M is the better team, has the hot hand, and is getting 2 points…sign me up!
With nine plays in hand early today, it was tough spotlighting only three in the Road Dog Report for 1/4/2020. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to email alerts when new handicapping articles are posted. Best of luck with your football and basketball bets today!
