I never want to see my alma mater take the L, though there was enough solace in them covering the spread last night at least. The Ohio Bobcats lost a tight one at Buffalo Tuesday on a final-possession turnover. We’ve brushed it off and are back on the grind with the Road Dog Report for 1/15/2020.
I certainly did not forsee Jayvon Graves taking a back seat when handicapping the Ohio/Buffalo game. Despite posting only his second single-digit scoring output of the season, the Bulls got a big MAC win last night. Jeenathan Williams picked up the slack with a career-high 26 points, while Antwain Johnson followed up with 18. One of my handicapping points was Buffalo’s susceptibility to opponents’ big men having monster games against them. Ohio’s Ben Vander Plas did just that, scoring 28 points with 4 buckets from downtown. Jason Preston was equally as good with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. Fun fact: only four Bobcats scored in their 73-76 loss.
(827) Bradley @ Missouri State -1.5
The 12-5 Bradley Braves take on the 8-9 Missouri State Bears in an important MVC matchup. Missouri State looks to break out of their 2-2 start in the league by beating first-place Bradley, who is tied at the top at 3-1. The Bears are no pushover at home, posting a 6-2 mark in Springfield.
Shorthanded Braves
Bradley will be without standout 6’7″ forward Elijah Childs for the third straight game with a hand injury. Though they still managed to beat Southern Illinois by 19 points without him last time out, he will be missed against a Bears lineup that boasts very good length. The Braves’ success this season can be attributed to their strong defense and rebounding (+126 margin), as well as discipline under coach Brian Wardle. This team has seen significant improvement under Wardle since taking over in 2015, including a berth in the NCAA Tournament last season.
The team’s discipline certainly helps them to fill the big hole left behind by Childs. Rarely does Wardle’s players find themselves in foul trouble, turning the ball over too much, etc. They may not be the best-shooting team in the MVC, but they give themselves plenty of second chances with double-digit offensive rebounds each game.
Senior guard Darrell Brown is a solid distributor who has stepped up his production in league play, averaging 14 PPG in those four games. He is joined in the backcourt by 6’6″ marksman, Nate Kennell, who needs to be efficient from downtown tonight. Making up for the size of 6’7″, 225-pound Childs is easier said than done. 6’11” senior Koch Bar has been a beast on the glass this year, though they may need him to be more aggressive on the offensive end. In my eyes, tonight’s game comes down to whether sophomore forward Ja’Shon Henry can continue his increased production in Childs’ absence. Henry snagged 18 rebounds (7 offensive) and put up 30 points on 12-21 shooting in the two games that Childs has been out.
Home Cookin’
Missouri State has played quite well at home and in the favorite role, going 7-1 when favored by the point spread. Coach Dana Ford relies heavily on a core of four players to carry the load. They have tightened up their game in the foul and turnover departments since entering league play, though their already-mediocre shooting has lagged lately.
Last week, I backed the Bears against Illinois State in a similar spot as Bradley tonight. Missouri State was a 1.5-point dog against the Redbirds and Coach Ford had just called the team out for not being able to finish in a key MVC game against Loyola. The Bears responded with a big Road Dog win, but just took a thumping from Northern Iowa. (Not that there’s much shame in losing to UNI, who has been mowing down the competition.)
My handicap for the Illinois State game looked to the Bears’ big men as the path to success. Gaige Prim continues to be their key “6th man”, producing double-digit scoring on a nightly basis. 6’8″ Tulio Da Silva is always a threat and should get his tonight as well. The big question is whether Lamont West will step up and thrive in Childs’ absence. The WVU transfer has been disappointing in league play but has a big opportunity against Bradley. However, I like how Bradley’s Darrell Kennell matches up against Keandre Cook, who had a monster 22-point game in the Illinois State game but has otherwise been silent lately.
On the Money
Bradley has treated their backers well this season, going 10-6 ATS though only 3-4 ATS away from home. They’ve covered their last five, including both of their road games: +7 at UNI and -2.5 at Evansville. This game is probably a pick ’em if Childs is in the lineup, although the Braves covered both of their games without him.
Missouri State is a clear step up in class from Evansville for the Braves. The Bears are 9-8 ATS but only 3-5 ATS at home, despite being on a 5-2 ATS run. Both teams lost to UNI, though Missouri State was unable to cover as a 2-point home dog Saturday. Evansville provides an interesting comp as a team that is a tier below both of tonight’s competitors. The Bears beat the Aces by 13 points as a 6-point favorite in Springfield, while Bradley beat them by 20 points as a 2.5-point road favorite without Elijah Childs. This could come back to bite me, but I think Bradley is the better team tonight even without Childs, and will take the +1.5 in a game that the Braves should still win.
Another day, another solo shot on the Road Dog Report for 1/15/2020. Stay posted for our NFL Championship Round breakdown dropping soon. We’ve got two plays booked and are ready for the weekend! Best of luck with your wagers today.
