In case you missed the news, NASCAR is back in full force. The Cup Series may have missed a couple months, but the nation has a need for speed and NASCAR is delivering. Four Cup races will run over an eleven-day stretch at Darlington Raceway and Charlotte Motor Speedway. Our early race preview set the stage for the return of stock cars to the tracks and Matt Kenseth to the driver’s seat. So let’s roll! It’s time to dig deeper into NASCAR’s return by handicapping who may be on the move at Darlington.
Darlington Early Odds
Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Bovada, and several other books opened odds to win the first race at Darlington similar to those in the screenshot below. There’s been a little movement on the board up to the time this article was published, but the general hierarchy remains the same. I am not surprised to see experienced Championship contenders fill the top six slots after the season reset.
Drivers and their teams are coming into Darlington cold after a two-month layoff. The compressed schedule allows for no practice sessions or qualifying runs to help them get acclimated. I talked about the rust factor in our pre-preview, specifically how it emphasizes the importance of experience in this unusual scenario. Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman are back on the track next weekend and may not be much rustier than the less-experienced drivers. This is a difficult factor to quantify, but worth keeping in mind.
Is JGR Trending Toward a Down Year?
Four races into a season is far from enough to give a definitive answer to this question. After all, Joe Gibbs Racing has defending NASCAR Champion Kyle Busch behind the wheel of their #18 Toyota Camry. Busch’s ultimate victory marked the stable’s third in five years. JGR’s four teams combined for a record-setting 19 trophies in 2019 season, then led off 2020 with the wild mess that was Denny Hamlin’s Daytona 500 win. After setting such a high bar last year, it is reasonable to ask whether Coach Gibbs’ teams could follow it up with a big 2020.
Let’s look at the results. My tendency is to throw out results at Daytona, or at the very least give them extreme side eye. It may be the Great American Race, but it’s also a weird pinball machine full of anxious young drivers, high-risk drafting lines, and catastrophic wrecks. Given Daytona’s inherent unpredictability, these charts compare JGR performances in the three races since the 2020 Daytona to races on those same tracks in 2018 & 2019. Note that Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Erik Jones were in place for both of those seasons, while Martin Truex, Jr. only joined JGR in 2019.
[ninja_tables id=”9039″] [ninja_tables id=”9043″] [ninja_tables id=”9044″]The Toyota Outlook
Even with these 2 months off, I don’t know how Toyota would have been able to make gains…
Playing the Odds NASCAR Style – May 9, 2020
When your stable has taken home the Cup Series Championship in three of the last five years, a slow start can make it seem like this dominant run is coming to a close. We have a ton of respect for NASCAR handicapper @NASCARstyleodds, so when he makes a statement like the one above you have to take it in consideration. Word around the garages coming into the 2020 season was that the Chevrolet Camaro was poised to make up ground on the Camrys. I’ll touch on that in a while.
A Red Flag for Truex
The season’s second race – Las Vegas – was not a good showing for JGR. Kyle Busch’s 15th-place finish was the best of the four teams. The poor finishes were a letdown for Busch and Truex, who had been contenders there over the last few years. I am comfortable saying that Martin Truex, Jr. definitively started 2020 with a slump. He posted his worst finishes at Vegas, Fontana, and Phoenix this spring since 2016.
Ironically, MTJ won the 2016 Southern 500 at Darlington. As a past winner, one might think that South Carolina’s 70-year old track will incite a revival in Truex. The odds seem to support this with books opening him at +800 to win on Sunday. This seems to be holding, which is an indicator that we will get a good price to play against him posting a Top 5 or Top 10 finish. Fading Truex at Darlington makes sense in that he has missed the Top 10 eight times in 14 races. His 2016 win came between 9th- and 8th-place runs and he finished just outside the T10 in 2018 and 2019. Plus he’s still fighting inertia from this year’s poor start, with iffy performances at Las Vegas, Fontana, and Phoenix – all tracks where he should have been a Top 10 shoe-in.
Denny, the Daytona Survivor
Denny Hamlin’s 2020 has been an up-and-down ride. Surviving the Daytona 500 earned him the first trophy of the season. His lackluster finish in Sin City and solid run at Fontana should not have been surprising if you were familiar with his work at those two tracks. Denny’s 20th place finish at Phoenix was rooted in a three-car tie-up that resulted in heavy damage to the #11 car and took out our Ryan Blaney play (yet again). I’ll characterize his season as solid considering how things left off.
Hamlin’s 2019 victory at the track Too Tough to Tame was nullified by a post-race inspection disqualification. That race went in the books as a 29th place finish, but I weigh it more like a typical strong run in my handicapping. A failed inspection means that his car had an unfair advantage, but realistically he would have contended even without the technical infraction. The DQ broke Hamlin’s strong run of eleven Top 10 finishes in his thirteen Darlington races, a stretch that includes a pair of wins and three runner-ups. I have no reason to expect poor runs from the #11 team at The Lady in Black, but the prices seem to reflect that so we’re likely to stay away from Denny this weekend.
Kyle the Kingpin
Busch has been on point since this season’s race at Fontana, with back-to-back Top 3s at Fontana and Phoenix. Those strong finishes should not be a surprise to anyone, considering he has finished outside the Top 5 at Phoenix only once in the previous nine races there. Kyle has hoisted the hardware at Fontana three times since 2013. Hell, a 25th in 2016 and an 8th in 2017 were his only two Auto Club Raceway runs outside of 3rd place since 2011!
Darlington has been good to Kyle as well, although he hasn’t visited victory lane since his 2008 debut with Joe Gibbs Racing. Don’t get me wrong; his eight Top 10 runs in the eleven races since then (two of which were 11th place) aren’t too shabby. My general tendency is to stay away from Kyle at any track where he’s a perennial contender. His prices are short, yet he’s too dangerous to fade. However, I am joining @NASCARstyleodds in his matchup play of Kevin Harvick +120 against Busch. Harvick has outraced him in five of the last seven at Darlington and is arguably in good form in 2020. Both are experienced drivers when it comes to the rust factor after the layoff, and plus-money with Happy Harvick is rarely a bad bet.
Turnaround Spot for Erik Jones?
The young driver of the #20 Camry poses the classic handicappers’ dilemma: does current form or venue-specific performance matter more? Well, the start is lackluster, that’s for certain. Jones pulled off a 10th place finish at Fontana and has otherwise struggled to so much as sniff the Top 10 in the other 2020 races. But is this balanced by his impressive successes at Darlington?
Jones’ first two Cup Series races here came in the middle of impressive summer streaks in both 2017 and 2018. His respective 5th and 8th place finishes were matched by Top 10s at a range of tracks like Watkins Glen, Bristol, and Michigan. On the flip side, his 2019 Southern 500 win marked the beginning of an extended late-summer slump. It was his only Top 10 finish over a nine-race stretch that bounced him from the playoffs. Although Jones is in the midst of a very slow start to the 2020 season and has less experience to carry him through, he’s aced all three tests in his young career at Darlington regardless of current form. The #20 team could reward its backers this weekend but I need to see the Top 10 price on him before I form an opinion.
Chevys on the Rise
I don’t know which is more surprising about the NASCAR Cup Series standings to date: the total lack of Toyotas in the Top 10, or that three Chevrolets are in the Top 5. Camaro drivers Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and Jimmie Johnson sit 3-4-5 in the season standings after four races. Elliott scored back-to-back T10 finishes before the season went on hold. Bowman won at Fontana but has otherwise had a nondescript season. Then you’ve got JJ, who has been competitive in the last three races, including a pair of T10s.
Among these three, Jimmie has had the most success at the track Too Tough to Tame. Granted, his career is twice as long as Elliot’s and Bowman’s put together. JJ’s three wins and twelve Top 10s in 21 Darlington races reflects his longevity at the Cup Series level. Chase has been around the Top 10 line at Darlington more often than not and was arguably rounding into form before this season’s hiatus. Bowman, however, has yet to be a factor at The Lady in Black. Both Elliott and Bowman opened at 12/1 to win the race but early money appears to be deservedly leaning towards Chase. Right now I’m continuing to mull over these observations while seeing how betting opportunities evolve.
Back on the Horse with Kurt Busch
What about Kyle Busch’s often-overlooked brother? Kurt put together 3rd and 6th place finishes at Fontana and Phoenix, both better than his typical runs at those tracks. My lone early bet for the cancelled race at Atlanta was a Top 10 finish on Kurt at even money. Four straight T10s warranted that price, and I am optimistic that we will get a similar number for Darlington. Busch’s price to win has already moved from 18/1 to 25/1 at 5Dimes, signaling that he may be overlooked again this weekend. Even money or better in the Top 10 market is bettable in my opinion, considering that Kurt has done this in four of the last five races at The Lady in Black.
Kurt Busch -115 vs. Jimmie Johnson
That’s a good segue into my first wager on the Darlington race: a -115 pick ’em against Jimmie. JJ’s Farewell Tour gets two more chances to score a big finish at Darlington. The seven-time NASCAR Champion has exceeded expectations so far this season, though he was outraced by Kurt in the Fontana and Phoenix races. Furthermore, the #48 Chevrolet hasn’t seen the Top 10 at Darlington since 2014. I will not be surprised if both of these Camaros post single-digit finishes on Sunday but I handicap Kurt Busch with a firm edge over Jimmie Johnson at Darlington. Outside of his accident in 2016, Kurt found his way to a finish no worse than 7th place despite driving for two teams and two manufacturers in that stretch. Busch and Johnson were contending last year before Daniel Hemric’s flat tire sidetracked their charges, so don’t underestimate these guys’ drive this weekend.
Giddy Up!
Hopes are high for the U.S.A. to get more pro sports back soon! NASCAR’s charge-leading four Cup Series races in less than two weeks is a beautiful thing. Stay in touch with us by following us on Twitter or subscribing below as we roll out new handicaps. BOL!
