And then there was one. Only one automatic bid to the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs remains after an unusual season on the Cup Series circuit. After the COVID hiatus this spring, we’ve been treated to mid-week races, weekend doubleheaders, and a new venue in the Daytona Road Course. The postseason came in a hurry, and for all but fourteen drivers their last chance comes at Daytona Saturday night under the lights.
Unwinding the Dover Double
2020’s kingpins Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick reigned supreme in last weekend’s doubleheader at Dover. In the process, Aric Almirola and the Busch brothers locked up three of the remaining six at-large playoff slots. With three postseason berths in play on the superspeedway, you better believe the intensity will be ratcheted up this weekend. Although Dover’s action pales in comparison to Daytona’s, I must say how the adjusted stage lengths last weekend made for interesting strategy decisions. The “extra” green-flag pit stop in Stage 2 chopped up the field and put additional pressure on the crew chiefs.
Denny muscled his way to victory lane Saturday evening after leading 118 of 311 laps. Not to be outdone, Harvick turned around 24 hours later and led 223 of 311 laps in the encore. He pulled off the race sweep on Sunday with both stage wins and the checkered flag. It marked his seventh win of the season and Ford’s 700th Cup Series win. The Closer also clinched the 2020 regular-season title and earned 15 additional playoff points for that accomplishment. Massive weekend for the top dogs.
Unfortunately, Martin Truex, Jr. snapped his insane five-race streak of 3rd place finishes that started in Kansas. Yet he did so in equally-wild fashion by notching a pair of runner-ups last weekend. This came on the heels of a spring win and fall runner-up at Dover in 2019. Regardless of what happens Saturday night at Daytona, the playoff field better keep their eyes out for the #19 Camry come September.
Saturday’s Betting Card
I lengthened our betting card for Saturday’s Dover race to three plays, which was a change of pace from the more conservative two-play cards in weeks prior. It paid off. In addition to winning with the Jimmie Johnson matchup over Aric Almirola pinpointed by our friend Paul at playingtheoddsnascarstyle.com, we scored a solid 3-0 sweep. I won’t call 2-0 a sweep – like in previous weeks at Michigan, New Hampshire, and Kansas – but winning three does.
The headline play for Saturday at Dover was Chase Elliott to finish in the Top 5 at even money. It was short money and felt chalky, but Chase is a Top 5 driver on the Monster Mile. Despite suffering early damage, Elliott rallied to produce his seventh Top 5 finish in nine races at Dover. That was a sweaty one but our second play-on driver was as cool as they come on race day.
Even if the #14 Mustang is primed for Dover’s Monster Mile, there is pause for concern with his current form. Before his 6th last weekend at Daytona, Bowyer missed the Top 10 in seven straight races. Perhaps I am justifying my position by saying that he is customarily hit-or-miss on most of those tracks anyways. Then again, Bowyer is reliable enough at this one-of-a-kind track to be a 50/50 shot to sneak into the Top 10 with a solid return of +130.
Dover’s Monster Mile Hosts a Weekend Double (8/22 & 8/23/2020) – BetCrushers.com – August 20, 2020
I don’t pull Clint Bowyer’s card very often. There are reasons for that. Regardless, he delivered a smooth, under-the-radar 6th place finish. This was good enough to cash the +130 Top 10 bet and the -115 matchup against William Byron. Clint provided the double-dip to keep us hot going into one of the toughest tracks to handicap: Daytona.
The Postseason Plot Thickens
As @NASCARstyleodds said to me Sunday evening, “This is turning out to be a 4 vs. 11.” I cannot agree more. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have combined for wins in 13 of 25 Cup races this season. Assuming someone other than these two claims victory at Daytona this weekend, these points leaders will have accounted for half of the regular-season wins.
Harvick and Hamlin have a major cushion on the field in the playoff points standings. Tension is extremely high further down the list with William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto, and Jimmie Johnson. The dynamic between teammates Johnson and Byron was highlighted in last weekend’s races and will surely be a conversation piece at Daytona. After all, superspeedway racing all but guarantees big swings from multiple accidents and “out of nowhere” winners. And if someone below them grabs the checkered flag Saturday night, one of those remaining slots will be gone with the wind.
Superspeedway Madness
The 2.5-mile tri-oval superspeedway at the beach will host the last chance for most of the field to make the postseason. Aside from the road courses, Daytona International Speedway is the second-longest track behind Talladega Superspeedway’s 2.66-mile oval. These tracks are high-banked, long, and full of speed. Body damage is a common sight for cars that make it to the finish line, though it’s “The Big One” that ends so many teams’ nights. That volatility has also enabled guys like Justin Haley, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., David Ragan, and Trevor Bayne to capture a Cup Series checkered flag.
Remember the winningest Cup Series driver of all time, Richard Petty? The King claimed seven NASCAR Cup titles and 200 victories, including twelve wins at Daytona and Talladega. Perhaps what is more astounding is that Petty had 40 DNFs in 120 career superspeedway races. That’s one in every three contests. A modern parallel to Petty’s dichotomous relationship with these tracks is Brad Keselowski. Brad has an impressive six wins in just 45 superspeedway races, yet has busted out 14 times. Think about that – one of the most successful active Cup drivers averages one DNF for every 3.2 races.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
To say that Saturday’s field is wide open may be a slight overstatement. Just slightly, though. After all, nobody is a lock to simply finish the race. You saw that reflected in the opening odds with just one driver priced less than 10/1. Kevin Harvick slipped to 9/1 at BetRivers three days after the opener, supporting the perception that “anything goes” at a superspeedway race. With so much uncertainty at Daytona, my approach is to find one good spot to play and enjoy the festivities on the track.
Austin Dillon -105 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
When the matchup menu dropped Tuesday morning, I saw a lone offering containing one of my bet-on drivers at Daytona. Trust me, that is one short and ugly list. I booked it at -105 but Austin Dillon’s price moved to +110 within hours. Does that swift move of 15 cents concern me? Slightly. After all, MTJ is one of the hottest drivers out there right now. But drastic times call for drastic measures.
Martin Truex, Jr. is a man on a mission right now. Despite a few near-misses, MTJ has not won since Martinsville in June. I’m sure he’d love to win Saturday night to close the gap in the playoff points standings. But let’s be honest, sometimes survival is the next best thing to winning because of how unapologetic Daytona can be.
The Pros and Cons
Only Harvick and Hamlin are more dialed in than Truex right now. MTJ has not been outraced by Dillon since Kansas. Following his Lone Star State wipeout at the hands of teammate Kyle Busch, Martin delivered seven straight Top 3 finishes. Then consider that Austin Dillon has outraced MTJ just seven times this season. Austin has just three Top 10s in his last eight races, including the playoff-clinching win at Texas. Current form decisively goes to Martin Truex, Jr.
Dillon earned a bit of a reputation as a superspeedway contender after his 2018 Daytona 500 victory. He laid the groundwork for this rep from the jump with five Top 10 finishes in the first eight races as a full-time Cup driver. The four Daytona races since the win have been slightly less successful, though AD has just one DNF during this stretch. Austin has been fortunate to have only two DNFs to go with seven Top 10s in 14 career Cup races at Daytona. His ratios are considerably better than Martin’s four Top 10s and eight DNFs in 30 races.
Austin Dillon gives me the best chance of ending this race in a respectable position. The fatal flaw in that thinking is Truex staying hot and pulling out a huge Top 5 night at Daytona. Anyone can get taken out in a hurry on these superspeedways, but I’m siding with AD as a survivor play with upside. I took the short dog price but the market has bounced this one around to where Dillon is better than even money. Austin Dillon is the man I am calling on to extend our run to 10-0. BOL!
Track and Gridiron
The 2020 NASCAR postseason kicks off where the regular season got back on track this spring: Darlington. We get another primetime race with the Southern 500 on Sunday night. Stay connected with us on Twitter and visit our NASCAR page to catch our early plays. With football season almost upon us, be sure to keep an eye out for Yanni’s NFL previews and weekly handicapping features. Or subscribe below to have our content delivered straight to your inbox:
