The real world outside of sports and handicapping throws us plenty of curveballs, so I’ll leave it at that to answer where I have been the last couple days. On a positive note, my OG baseball handicapping mentor reached out Monday morning after a few months since we last connected. We discussed a bunch of topics that got me re-centered in terms of my approach to the game. Whether it helps me close out the 2021 season on a strong note or just gets me focused more for next year, this handicapping thing is all about refining and improving year after year. All that being said, I left off Sunday’s handicap with a Milwaukee shortfall of runs and a small consolation prize as the +130 dog reclaimed a few bucks for the accounts. So without further delay, here’s the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-4-2021…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-260)
M. Harvey (R) vs. J. Taillon (R)
Has The Dark Knight risen? Matt Harvey’s three straight starts of 6+ innings without giving up a single run, this is a legitimate question. The 32-year-old Harvey has seemingly turned his act around since the All-Star Break – 10 hits, 0 runs, 11 Ks, and 1 BB in 18.1 innings – though tonight’s challenge in the Bronx is arguably his toughest since facing Toronto before the break. Naturally, I erroneously called for his fall from grace last Thursday in Detroit…
One metric that paints a volatile picture of Harvey is BABIP. The 32-year-old veteran has a .334 BABIP this season primarily due to a lot of outings in which opposing teams have racked up .400+ figures. But the contact in those last two gems was apparently directed right at his defenders, producing a .158 BABIP at Kansas City and .067 versus Washington. If the Tigers deliver a reasonable .270 – .350 BABIP tonight against a low-K pitcher like Harvey, they have a very strong chance of putting up 3 runs in the first 5 innings – something they have done in seven straight home games.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-30-2021 – BetCrushers.com
Firing Blanks
As requested, the Tigers delivered a .318 BABIP and 6 hits in that game. But the 0 runs thing is what ultimately mattered as the veteran with a 6.20 ERA worked his magic once again. As many of my loyal readers know, ERA does not mean much with respect to projecting forward performance. Harvey’s season-long 4.24 FIP/4.70 xFIP paints a much different picture than ERA does. If you parse his 2021 season down to the last five starts, the 2.44 FIP/4.27 xFIP tells us to expect more along the lines of a mid-4.00s FIP performance without respect to an opponent. Not just that, but his recent turnaround has come with a sharp falloff in hard contact other than when the Blue Jays came to town. It’s easier to show you the table than it is to describe in words:
M. Harvey Statcast Data (6/30/2021 – 7/30/2021)
Matt Harvey opposes the July 2021 AL Pitcher of the Month, Jameson Taillon. The 29-year-old is experiencing a bit of a turnaround as well, having given up only 1 earned run across his last three starts. Those 2 unearned runs at Boston a couple outings ago are indicative of the Yankees’ subpar defense that, in fact, has been roughly matched by the O’s this year. Taillon’s recent honors featured five starts in the month of July – 31.0 IP, 4 ER, 25K, 10 BB – with a 4-0 record. Those walks tarnished July’s 1.16 ERA a bit, resulting in a 3.45 FIP/5.14 xFIP that may actually raise more concerns than Harvey’s current form does.
Trading Blows at the Plate
Taillon’s hard hit rate in his last three starts eclipsed the 40.0% threshold, which can be a significant red flag. (Just ask a guy like @tekmunnee who relies heavily on indicators such as this one in his MLB handicapping.) Jameson could get a reprieve against an Orioles lineup that typically faces headwinds away from Camden Yards and against right-handed pitching. Case in point, their 7-run performance in the series opener Monday came against a shaky lefty in Andrew Heaney despite being on the road. Then Yankees’ right-hander Luis Gil followed up last night with a spot start out of AAA, blanking the O’s over 6 innings.
New York plays to a slight bias at home with a slight disadvantage against righties. However, their current roster contains two big trade deadline pickups in left-handed hitters Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo. While Gallo has fit in well with the rest of the Yankees’ slumping lineup, Rizzo hit the ground running and arguably poses the biggest threat to Harvey this evening.
Situational Offensive Factors
- BAL: 87.9
- NYY: 98.5
Neither offense has been particularly stunning post-ASB except in certain spots. New York’s .214/.299/.314 slash line over the trailing seven-day period earned them a 73 wRC+ despite a solid 40.5% hard hit rate. Baltimore showed a little more pop by slashing .229/.310/.420 in that same period with a 100 wRC+ and 37.8% hard hit rate. Mild temperatures and humidity this evening should be conducive to a lower-scoring affair as well.
When in Doubt, Leave Them Out
The bullpens, that is. I have doubts, although the full game total of 9.5 leaves a fair amount of room for error. Both bullpens are functioning in the low-4.00s FIP range since the break (BAL 4.09 FIP/4.83 xFIP; NYY 4.17 FIP/4.19 xFIP) and have their back-end arms rested and ready tonight. That should help the O’s bullpen considering their trailing seven-day performance of 5.34 FIP/6.35 xFIP brings me more doubts than the Yankees’ 3.48/3.68 marks in that period. I’m already walking a tightrope by asking for both Harvey and Taillon to be on point yet again, so why compound this tension with bullpens? My logic could be flawed – as it often is – but if both starters are not good enough to keep the game under 5 runs in the early innings, will the full game under still be in play?
WAGER: BAL/NYY First 5 Innings Under 5 +105
ALTERNATIVE: BAL/NYY First 5 Innings Under 5.5 -120
GREEDY SPRINKLE: Orioles First 5 Innings +200
To a degree, this position is like the proverbial “catching a falling knife” when it comes to riding along with Matt Harvey. I faded his strong post-ASB run in Detroit and am now jumping on board with him? Yeah, it’s like that around here. Let’s just say that one of these pitchers melting down could very well knock me out of the 2021 season. Even if I take my profits and run, I’ll keep throwing handicaps out there since your feedback continues to be positive. BOL with your bets today!
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
