An insane flurry of activity leading up to Friday afternoon’s trade deadline kicked off a big weekend of baseball action as the gap between the haves and have-nots expectedly grew wider. My request for runs from the Detroit Tigers that same evening went unfulfilled as Matt Harvey kept his streak rolling at my expense. That scenario that was part of the handicap, so the disappointment did not necessarily come as a surprise. But a beautiful Saturday spent outdoors and away from the baseball action has me stoked to usher in August with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-1-2021. BOL this month!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves (-147)
The tensions will be high in the ATL as a bolstered Braves lineup powered their club to an equalizing win last night over Brandon Woodruff and the Brew Crew. This series between Milwaukee and Atlanta is arguably bigger for the home team as they try to push forward as the NL East’s key challenger to the New York Mets. Milwaukee, on the other hand, continues to kneel on the throats of the NL Central with their seven game lead over my floundering Cincinnati Reds.
Surprisingly, it is the offense that has buoyed the playoff-bound Brewers since the All-Star Break. They erupted in a trio of three-game series – 26 runs in Cincinnati to squash the Reds’ pre-break momentum, 14 runs against the White Sox, and then 28 runs in Pittsburgh. In the current trailing seven-day period, Milwaukee had the fourth-highest offensive productivity in the majors. The righty-heavy lineup mustered just one run last night despite their recent proliferation. Avisail Garcia, Tyrone Taylor, Lorenzo Cain, and Rowdy Tellez all have a 112 or higher wRC+ since the break, which has intensified to 178 or higher during this recent trailing seven-day period.
Atlanta’s Power Surge
Atlanta has also seen an uptick in production despite being without their key catalyst, Ronald Acuna, Jr. Joc Pederson, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, and Freddie Freeman have produced at a 119 or higher wRC+ level since the break with Freeman going absolutely bonkers. The reigning NL MVP is slashing .373/.465/.576 since the break, making his extremely slow start a distant memory for the Atlanta faithful. Don’t sleep on the recent power surge from Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson, who have combined for 9 home runs in the past week. But both clubs have produced mixed results in the scenarios they face today – Brewers vs. a righty on the road; Braves at home against a lefty – though their current forms are plenty good to put them firmly above league average.
Situational Offensive Factors
- MIL: 107.3
- ATL: 104.0
B. Anderson (L) vs. C. Morton (R)
Charlie Morton has the ability to stymie the Brewers offense for the second straight day via the strikeout. The 37-year-old became an effective strikeout pitcher after joining the Astros in 2017, delivering around a 10 K/9 inning figure in those five seasons. In fact, the Mets broke Morton’s seven-game streak of 7+ strikeouts last week. That could be a differentiating factor against a Brewers offense that struck out in 25.4% of their at bats over the last seven days. Plus the guy is a solid ground ball pitcher (47.1%) that does not yield a ton of hard contact (34.7%).
As many handicappers know, results and advanced metrics often butt heads – and Charlie Morton is a prime example of this conflict. The veteran has been stout at home with a 3.71 FIP/3.39 xFIP. On the flip side of that coin are inflated home splits for slugging (.069 higher at Truist Park) and wOBA (.032 higher). That makes me slightly conflicted in projecting his output today, especially considering the 10 runs against him in the last three home starts.
C. Morton Last 3 Home Starts
| OPP | IP | H | R | K | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4.66 | 3.68 |
| MIA | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4.09 | 3.00 |
| NYM | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 3.99 | 3.01 |
Morton’s counterpart, Brett Anderson, has a similar profile in terms of his 58.7% ground ball rate. But his key differentiators are more hard contact (47.1%) and a strikeout rate that is nearly half of Charlie’s. This is an interesting combination that has resulted in just one home run going back to his June 9th start against Cincinnati. It is also the main reason why I chose to avoid a position that involves going against the Atlanta offense – a group that has 12 home runs in the last seven days and 25 bombs since the break (3rd most in the MLB). Plus Anderson’s low-K, low-BB approach plays right into the hands of Milwaukee’s top-five defense. Despite this effectiveness, Brett took his lumps back in May against the Braves with 4 runs in 3.2 innings.
Oddly enough, there has not been much separating these two bullpens this season – especially after the All-Star Break. Milwaukee’s 4.71 FIP/4.19 xFIP and Atlanta’s 3.84 FIP/4.45 xFIP intertwine depending on how you gauge effectiveness in light of actual FIP or the expected value. Both clubs have managed their relievers well during this intense start to the season’s second half. However, the Brewers got NL Rookie of the Year setup man back from the IL on Tuesday. Manager Craig Counsell has all four back-end relievers in line for late-inning action if Anderson can eat 5+ innings. Atlanta’s relief unit is also nearly at full strength despite closer Will Smith and standout middle reliever Tyler Matzek having worked two of the last three games.
WAGER: Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs +105
ALTERNATIVE: Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -125
ALTERNATIVE: Brewers +130
Put it all together and the expectation for Milwaukee to scratch out 2-3 runs against Morton and 1-2 more against the Atlanta bullpen is a reasonable floor for this offense. I also don’t hate taking a crack at the Crew as they offer decent plus money around +130. A game total of 9 seems just about right, so for me it is plus-money or bust – even if we’re only talking about +105 for the team total. Then again, Morton could shine and hold the Brewers to a 90-ish wRC+ day that is more indicative of their season-long figure. It is only a matter of time that Milwaukee’s over-achieving (?) lineup comes back down to earth. In the meantime, I am a buyer of their strong work away from home.
Around the Horn
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