Monday’s slate certainly wasn’t worth pounding on the keyboard for. But when it comes to the series-opening game between National League titans, I’m willing to set the alarm clock an hour early. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel cross-country into hostile territory to trade blows with the Philadelphia Phillies. Both clubs have sizable leads over their division challengers but neither intends to leave their guards down. A potential NLCS matchup is on deck in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-9-2024. BOL!
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies (PHI -145, 9)
Other than a quiet May, the Dodgers have consistently produced a top 5 offense despite losing Mookie Betts and his 158 wRC+ a few weeks ago. The lineup’s trailing 7- and 14-day numbers straddle their robust season-long benchmark that is skewed towards left-handed pitching. Betts is joined by boom-or-bust slugger Max Muncy and Jason Heyward on the IL, pushing James Outman, Chris Taylor, and Miguel Rojas into more prominent roles.
Although they square up against one of the tougher righties in the game this evening, note that the Philadelphia bullpen’s high-leverage group is lefty-heavy. Even without Betts, L.A. has two of the toughest hitters against righties anchoring the lineup: Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez also offer plus bats in this aspect, just to a lesser degree. Otherwise, the bottom half of the Dodger lineup has their work cut out with Zack Wheeler on the mound.
Not To Be Outdone?
Of greater significance than L.A.’s injured three are Philadelphia big hitters Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Plus Catcher JT Realmuto has been sidelined for nearly a month after tearing his meniscus. Although Realmuto was having a valuable, ho-hum season Harper and Schwarber created the biggest holes in the lineup when they left the field for the last time on June 27th. Since then, the Phillies have scored the fifth-least runs and put up the league’s 23rd-best 93 wRC+.
PHI Offense, by Period
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru 6/27 | 9.3% | 21.4% | .306 | .259/.333/.422 | 113 |
| Since 6/28 | 6.0% | 27.2% | .322 | .250/.299/.386 | 93 |
| Season | 9.0% | 22.0% | .307 | .258/.329/.418 | 111 |
| MLB Average | 8.2% | 22.2% | .289 | .242/.312/.395 | 100 |
Time to pump the brakes, JJ. For one thing, we’re talking about a nine-game span. Plus Kyle Schwarber is expected to be activated from the IL today after recovering from his groin injury. Oddly enough, he’s a huge reason for Philadelphia’s success against southpaws. Miller being a righty who yields quite a bit of pop to left-handed hitters squaring off with 2024’s reverse-splits Schwarber should be interesting to say the least. Nonetheless, Rob Thomson and the boys would greatly benefit from having the big hitter back atop the lineup. Trea Turner is coming alive but will Stott, Bohm, and Marsh snap out of their slumps?
B Miller (R) vs. Z Wheeler (R)
Fortunately for Philadelphia, they have a stopper on the mound to take on this formidable Dodgers lineup. Zack Wheeler sandwiched a rough Baltimore loss between 8 quality starts Note that the O’s were rolling that weekend too. Quality of lineups aside, the 34-year-old veteran righty has a rock-solid 2.74 ERA and 3.28 FIP/3.50 xFIP. All that while holding down a 6.18 inning/start average.
With starters like Wheeler in the rotation it’s no coincidence that the Phils bullpen has worked the second-least amount of innings in the MLB. This comes on the heels of last year’s distinction of logging the least innings and delivering the MLB’s third-highest 6.8 WAR. Having Monday off plus key relievers Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, and Orion Kerkering being more or less idle over the weekend means that Wheeler has his back covered. At least that’s the plan, anyhow. The Philly relief unit carries the third-lowest ERA (3.41) and league-leading 3.09 FIP/3.39 xFIP. Pssst, this defense ain’t half bad either. What a welcome change for this organization.
A Shorter Book
Where Zack Wheeler gives handicappers a healthy dose of reliability, second-year Dodger Bobby Miller has consistently yielded multiple runs to opponents since returning to the majors in mid-June. There’s not much shame in giving up 5 runs over 6+ innings at Coors Field but posting 4.50+ xFIPs and 6.00+ FIPs in every start but the first raises concerns with the 25-year-old. Philadelphia taking full advantage of Miller’s tendencies to give out free passes and cough up what appears to be a mandatory long ball each game is the Reader’s Digest summary of this game. Since Harper and Schwarber hit the IL, the Phillies have been less patient at the plate. Of course, Schwarber is a high-strikeout, high-walk hitter who can swing the lineup one way or another tonight if he’s back as leadoff man.
My numbers get me very close to the road dog. Is +125 enough to get involved with the Dodgers’ tale of two halves top-heavy lineup against Zack Wheeler? Or does the threat of a refreshed Phillies lineup and bullpen take the wind out of the dog’s sails? This is a handicap of tradeoffs, after all: Philadelphia’s pitching edge vs. Los Angeles’ 10-15% advantage on offense. Good hitting weather – temps, wind, and air density – could amplify Miller’s tendencies while the home run-averse Wheeler keeps the ball on the ground and stymies hitters with weak contact. I can’t lay the -145, yet need more of an incentive to fade Zack and a quiet Phillies lineup. This could be their wakeup call and I look forward to watching this battle.
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