Indecision on my part with Wednesday’s Jays/White Sox game simply did not matter as Chicago succumbed to another day getting pounded by rain. Today I’ll shift gears to a conflict between the market and my numbers that has me locked up this morning. The issue is whether to do something about it or not. Another fit of indecision coming your way in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-6-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (WSN -110, 10)
At this point, it comes down to finding reasons why not to bet on the Cincinnati Reds. As a lifelong fan I have a hard time checking my optimism at the door before sitting down to handicap in the morning. But the reality is this team keeps printing money for backers even if the bullpen has made things a little too interesting at times. That’s part of the case against this young team. Cincy’s pitching staff as a whole sits bottom third in the league in terms of fWAR (7.0, 22nd), ERA (4.94, 27th), and FIP (4.77, 26th).
Other than rookie Andrew Abbott and closer Alexis Diaz – with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene on the IL – it’s all about this Reds position player corps. The offense continues to produce at a relatively high level since Matt McLain joined the club on May 15th. In fact, production has jumped another 10% after taking a look at this catalytic call-up on June 16th. No team has stolen more bases the last two weeks (27) than the Redlegs and only two teams have scored more runs than their 76 in that period. Contrast that to a bottom-third Nationals lineup in both categories. This is anything but breaking news: the Reds offense is clicking at a 20-30% premium over the Nats the last 14 days and even more so the past week.
B Williamson (L) vs. M Gore (L)
Is Mackenzie Gore the ice man this afternoon? The 24-year-old lefty has posted a career-high 17 starts and 88.1 innings this season with reasonable success (4.48 ERA, 4.29 FIP/3.74 xFIP). His handedness most likely means manager David Bell yanks the potent bats of Jake Fraley and Will Benson for Kevin Newman and Nick Senzel. But Cincinnati still has powerhouses TJ Friedl, Matt McClain, Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Tyler Stephenson, right?
Only Stevenson has been left off the starting lineup card in the six-game stretch since last having a day off. And the Reds head to Milwaukee to finish the first half against the club they’re battling with for first place in the NL Central. How much weight should we put into fatigue with their dynamic core? Fatigue might be less of an issue with such young players though. This roster carries three catchers, reducing lineup flexibility outside of a couple platoon situations noted above. So expect the majority of Cincinnati’s impact players to be in the lineup despite the need to diminish their productivity a bit.
Breaking the Lefties?
Retuning back to the Nationals’ young starter, his profile has been very up-and-down. You can argue that the .347 BABIP points to being unfortunate, but the 46.6% hard contact against him counters that. Hitters smack him hard and the Reds are just the team to deliver sizzling exit velos. The guy is the prototypical high-K/high-BB pitcher who gets punished by the long ball. And the half-run difference between FIP and xFIP reflects that. A results-oriented look at Gore shows that he’s yielded less than 3 runs in just three of his last nine starts. Couple this with a Nationals bullpen that is not in the best form, and the Reds team total over 4.5 looks super appetizing.
Washington’s mediocre lineup gets a bump facing left-handed starter Brandon Williamson. There isn’t much overachieving going on with this group right now but Williamson keeps the door open for a competitive afternoon. No matter how you slice it, the 25-year-old is a 5+ ERA, FIP, SIERA, whatever metric kind of rookie. Brandon’s struggles with walks have often been his nemesis, though we’ve seen improvement in this department compared to the first three starts of his season. And it’s not like the Nationals have taken advantage of bases on balls either (6.7%, last in MLB). An improving rookie facing a scuffling offense with some strength against lefties makes for one hell of a combination to handicap.
Perched on the Fence
Once again, I’m on the fence with today’s featured handicap. The 1:05 ET start doesn’t give me much time to wait for lineups and make final adjustments. Plus my work calendar is jammed up from 9:00 onwards, so I’ll have to pull a trigger sooner than later. David Bell stacking the lineup with his bench – Maile, Casali, Newman, and Senzel – is less than ideal but not the end of the world. After all, Newman and Senzel have been stone cold killers against lefties this season. Combined with a poorly performing Nats bullpen, the team total is very much in play. Hell, both bullpens’ current form puts them in the bottom five of all MLB relief units.
The other dynamic in play is market pricing on these teams. If you make Gore 1+ runs better than Williamson, the Nationals are priced fairly. If you’re on board with Williamson finding his groove in the MLB, then the Redlegs are once again an underpriced hot commodity. FanDuel is holding strong this morning with a +104 tag on Cincy while Bookmaker met resistance with them as the favorite. Interesting. What does the early Washington money say? It must be Gore or bust for that camp. It’s Cincinnati side, team total, or pass for me – regardless of the potential for a messy lineup card this afternoon. BOL and Go Reds!
Heading for Home
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