Last Thursday’s whiff came in the middle of an up-and-down betting week that gave way to a two-day break for the July 4th holiday. We have five days of “first half” action left in the 2023 season before the All-Star Break rolls around on Monday. So let’s get back in action with a handicap that has me on the fence in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-5-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (TOR-122, 9)
Is it a matter of too little, too late for the Chicago White Sox? The season has passed the half-way point and their offense is finally rounding into form. Aside from Yoan Moncada, position player health is a key part of this phenomenon. Rookie Zach Remillard is making his mark at the bottom of the order supporting established talented hitters Eloy Jimenez, Andre Vaughn, Luis Robert Jr., and Andrew Benintendi. You can attribute a healthy chunk of this recent offensive success to a pair of games where they raked against left-handed starters (Muller, Sandoval). But the numbers don’t lie – the Southsiders are not letting opposing pitchers get off easy these days.
CHW Offense, by Period
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 11.7% | 21.6% | .375 | .307/.401/.497 | 151 |
| L14 Days | 8.2% | 22.8% | .311 | .262/.334/.442 | 115 |
| Season | 6.8% | 23.2% | .286 | .239/.299/.397 | 90 |
What happens when the strength of pitching gets ratcheted up? Yesterday’s face-off with Chris Bassitt and a rested Blue Jays bullpen held the hot Sox lineup to 3 runs and kept the back door open for Vladdy to work his 8th inning magic. In the big picture, it is very reasonable to expect Chicago to be much more productive than their season-to-date 90 wRC+. But the question for tonight is whether the recent uptick has met significant resistance in the Toronto pitching staff, specifically Jose Berrios. The markets seem to have lowered their expectations with the White Sox team total at 4 over -120. That’s a far cry from the 6-11 runs they put up in four of the five games leading up to this series.
Toronto’s lineup was hit by an offensive cooldown in their six games against San Francisco and Boston. They scored more than 4 runs just twice and were held to 0 or 1 runs in half of those six games. In opposite style from the White Sox, the Jays clocked a league-low .257 BABIP over the trailing 7-day period – almost the exact opposite of Chicago. Will regression’s invisible hand make an appearance in game two of this series? The bookmakers are arguably saying “yes” with the Blue Jays being a firm favorite in the -120 to -125 range.
J Berrios (R) vs. L Lynn (R)
Look no further than the starting pitchers for some clues. Jose Berrios is in a much better place than in his first full season with Toronto. Although he’s still giving up too much hard contact, the ground ball rate is firmly above 40% and home run rate back in a reasonable range compared to 2022. Better command over his four-pitch arsenal is what it boils down to. The concern with backing Berrios tonight is two-fold. First, the White Sox are making up for lost time and significantly overachieving at the plate. Second, the eight-start run in which he went 5-1 has sputtered into a less spectacular form of late.
J Berrios (TOR) Recent Start Comparison
| ERA | FIP/xFIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 Starts | 6.19 | 5.80/3.53 | .326 |
| Previous 8 Starts | 1.94 | 4.20/4.52 | .235 |
You can argue that Berrios’ strong run through May and partially into June was the result of excellent BABIP luck. His ERA certainly matches it! Chicago’s strength against left-handed pitching is shining through, as expected, although Tim Anderson has not been a catalyst in this regard. How much stock should we put in their relative weakness (~14%) against righties? This sure looks like one of those Berrios stabilizes vs. Chicago stays hot debates if you ask me. Both bullpens are fine and are generally available after Monday’s rest day. Small edge goes to the Jays’ pen and healthy edge to their defense.
The Blue Jays’ window of opportunity comes with Lance Lynn. He’s been a high BABIP guy all season (L3 starts: .341; season: .339) who is also on the high-K/high-BB plan. That leaves the door open in this contest, though I grade both starters in a similar range. Berrios’ BABIP variance makes this one tough. That said, my handicap points to a several percentage point edge for the Blue Jays at the -122 price point. Should I play this number? Probably, but for some reason I am still on the sidelines at 6:00 am ET. Consider me gun shy with the garbage featured handicaps I’ve been putting out…
Heading for Home
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