There are a few guys in the game today who can make you shake your head in confusion while cracking up laughing. Johnny Cueto is king of that hill for me. Of course I am biased as a lifelong Cincinnati Reds fan. And when it came to yesterday’s rubber match with the Dodgers, Johnny’s shimmy was absolutely on point. He and the Giants bullpen locked down a huge NL West series win with a 5-0 shutout, delivering a nice +110 payday for their backers. Nothing crazy, just a solid outcome leading into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-30-2021.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (-145)
My most recent handicap featuring the Detroit Tigers tackled the series opener with Kansas City on their seventh straight day of action. They ultimately dropped that game 5-3, then proceeded to lose their next two games in disappointing fashion before salvaging two out of three at Minnesota. My concerns of fatigue may have fizzled as this Detroit club battled hard against the Twins before coming home to take the series opener against Baltimore 6-2 last night. Now the Tigers are facing their 14th straight day of action versus an Orioles team that was idle on Monday.
In the season-long context, Detroit’s lineup has exhibited very little bias in both home/road and lefty/righty splits. However, their offense has been consistently well above average since the All-Star Break (.280/.336/.486; 121 wRC+) and held its own during their latest road trip. While Baltimore has not been quite as prolific since the break (.242/.306/.433; 100 wRC+), they were on a 127 wRC+ tear during the seven-day period leading into Thursday’s series opener. They managed only a pair of runs against the Detroit bullpen after Casey Mize’s excellent 7 innings of shutout ball. Tonight is a bit different though as the Orioles are faced with both a strength (108 wRC+ against left-handed pitching) and a weakness (82 wRC+ away from Camden Yards). I could very well be shortchanging Baltimore in my offensive factors, granting the Tigers a 16% advantage without factoring opposing pitchers.
Situational Offensive Factors
- BAL: 90.8
- DET: 106.9
M. Harvey (R) vs. T. Skubal (L)
No need to reinvent the wheel as I recently profiled Tigers’ starting pitcher Tarik Skubal in our July 20th handicap against the Texas Rangers. He worked a sharp 6.0 innings in that game, giving up a single run on 4 hits. Five days later, however, Skubal was knocked around for 5 runs in 5.0 innings at Kansas City.
…Tarik’s low 34.5% ground ball rate is generally concerning when you put the two factors together. The high-strikeout artist is steadily incorporating a slider into his repertoire instead of relying heavily on the fastball like he did in his rookie season. In fact, Skubal’s ground ball rate is increasing as the season progresses. And outside of a pair of tough starts against the White Sox, the young lefty has been very good at Comerica Park this year. Part of my rationale in backing the Tigers this evening actually comes down to these starters’ home/road splits…
MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-20-2021 – BetCrushers.com
Today’s Starters Home/Road Splits
| Home (FIP / xFIP) | Away (FIP / xFIP) | |
|---|---|---|
| M. Harvey | 5.09 / 4.61 | 3.84 / 4.91 |
| T. Skubal | 3.69 / 4.01 | 7.26 / 4.76 |
Skubal’s home/road splits became more exaggerated after his good home start against Texas and his rough day in Kansas City. Then again, the Rangers offense has hit rock bottom since the break. Matt Harvey, believe it or not, has a similar road FIP to that of Skubal at home. But their expected FIPs speak to nearly a one-run edge for the 24-year-old Tiger. Skubal’s key is not giving up home runs on his turf – a factor that gets completely flipped when he pitches on the road. He has yielded only 1 home run in his last four home starts, as compared to 5 bombs in his last two road starts. Additionally, a light wind is expected to blow in this evening. And one last note about Tarik’s progression as a major leaguer – he has generated at least 47% ground ball contact in each of his last five starts.
The Matt Harvey Conundrum
Although the outcome could be just about anything with these two out-of-contention teams tonight, simply fading Matt Harvey without doing your due diligence is not a sound approach. Maybe this perspective is clouded in recency bias, as the blind fade crashed and burned in Harvey’s last two starts – a pair of 6-inning, 0-run outings at Kansas City and at home against Washington. Plus we have the added element of a sneaky Baltimore offense with its pros and cons against a lefty starter on the road scenario. So I have to respect the possibility of an Orioles outburst against the southpaw and/or Matt Harvey racking up a third-straight shutdown outing.
One metric that paints a volatile picture of Harvey is BABIP. The 32-year-old veteran has a .334 BABIP this season primarily due to a lot of outings in which opposing teams have racked up .400+ figures. But the contact in those last two gems was apparently directed right at his defenders, producing a .158 BABIP at Kansas City and .067 versus Washington. If the Tigers deliver a reasonable .270 – .350 BABIP tonight against a low-K pitcher like Harvey, they have a very strong chance of putting up 3 runs in the first 5 innings – something they have done in seven straight home games. As for the bullpens, I’m all for leaving them out of the picture considering that the Baltimore relievers have outperformed Detroit’s by 1+ run of FIP over the last two weeks.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings -1 +115 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs -115 (1/2 unit)
Just like Monday, I cannot make up my mind what the best plan of attack is. So I’ll cop out and split the Detroit Tigers position into two halves again – targeting the first 5 innings team total and the money line. The -1 play is admittedly greedy but the plus-money is worth a shot in my opinion. A more conservative alternative is simply to lay the hook and pay -115 or just bank on Detroit keeping the hit parade rolling at Comerica Park and go with the first half team total.
Around the Horn
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