Today’s short MLB slate left more questions than answers as far as I’m concerned. Can Philly’s bats support Wheeler as a 2/1 favorite? Will the Red Sox get out of their own way for a change? And the most interesting question among Thursday’s games will be answered in the Bronx this evening. In fact, it’s one that got all of my attention in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-28-2022. BOL!
KANSAS CITY ROYALS @ NEW YORK YANKEES (-225)
B. Singer (R) vs. J. Taillon (R)
Can Brady Singer keep it together against a prolific Yankees lineup? The answer could be yes as long as he keeps the ball in the yard. Which is no small task at Yankee Stadium, especially with warm temps and a nice breeze blowing out. Plus the Stanton-less Yanks should have the services of a very familiar face to K.C.: Andrew Benintendi. Beni fills Stanton’s spot in the lineup while the slugger is on the IL, albeit as a much different hitter. More consistency, less power. No matter how you look at it, the Yankees offense will benefit greatly from the lefty Benintendi’s .320/.387/.398 behind the likes of LeMahieu and Judge.
Andrew leaves a big hole in the Royals lineup as their best offensive player by far. Kansas City now must rely heavily on multiple prospects to develop right before everyone’s eyes. Bobby Witt, Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, and Kyle Isbel are now expected to carry their squad alongside veterans Witt Merrifield and Hunter Dozier. The problem tonight is Witt having missed three straight games and Pasquantino out last night with a sore thumb. Any expectation of hanging with the Yankees requires a huge effort from the aforementioned Brady Singer.
Jameson Taillon has had his ups and downs this season, yet has generally been a reliable 5+ inning starter who often holds opponents to 3 runs or less. And with the bombers supporting him, his 3.81 FIP/3.83 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA is good enough for a 10-2 record. D Nice would agree that a guy like Aaron Nola would certainly love that type of run support. Despite failing to get out of the 3rd inning last time out in Baltimore, Taillon’s prospects for an 11th win this season against a Benintendi-less Royals are pretty high. -225 high, actually.
Roll the Dice With Singer?
With a strong likelihood of K.C. failing to give Brady significant run support, all eyes will be on the 25-year-old righty to keep them in the game. This is by no means breaking news or a revelation on starting pitcher effectiveness – but when Singer keeps the ball in the park he has yet to yield more than 2 runs in those starts. That was the case in 5 of his 12 starts and the earned runs in those homer-less starts have actually amounted to 0 or 1. Note that the Royals defense is middling at best depending on what you use to measure fielding. Their zone rating is fine but this unit is third worst in terms of runs saved. And Beni was one of the positive contributors in their defense.
Clearly, key #1 for Brady is to keep the ball on the ground and avoid the long ball. I get it – that’s easier said than done against the Yankees. But Singer has harnessed a better pitch mix to both maintain a high-40% ground ball rate and to keep runners off the bases. An improved changeup joining his traditional sinker/slider combo is a considerable part of increasing strikeouts by 3% and reducing walks by the same amount as compared to 2021.
Opponents can get frustrated in a hurry when a ground ball-heavy contact pitcher like Brady Singer musters a 4.05 K/BB ratio. Are the Yankees vulnerable or pissed after losing a pair to the Mets on 5 total runs? They had his number in a couple matchups last year, though I’m willing to argue this is an improved Singer with more experience and a better repertoire. It’s an uphill battle nonetheless – one that has me stuck on the fence this morning…
POTENTIAL OPTION #1: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-105)
POTENTIAL OPTION #2: Yankees First 5 Innings Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (+100)
Heading for Home
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