The decision to not lay up yesterday afternoon and go for the green turned out to be a profitable move. All that came despite an added sweat from the Detroit bullpen. We walked away with a birdie and hit the ground running with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-23-2021. Friday’s solo shot is somewhat of a rinse and repeat scenario, but not one where I took a shortcut to get there. Let’s make this short and sweet on our way to the weekend!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-122)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s exactly how I started yesterday’s handicap of the Rangers/Tigers game. So that makes three straight articles in which the Detroit Tigers have been my featured handicap. After rattling off seven straight wins out of the break, they leave the spacious confines of Comerica Park to visit AL Central foe Kansas City. In addition to the change in venue, the key differentiator between the Rangers series and what Detroit now faces against the Royals is a more capable offense.
Situational Offensive Factors
- DET: 104.4
- KCR: 97.8
I still believe that AJ Hinch will sit at least one of his regular starters due to the long stretch without rest that his club is in the middle of. Yesterday it was Miguel Cabrera, who is likely to get back into the lineup as DH or even at first base. Someone pivotal to their current offensive proliferation like Jonathan Schoop could get called to take a seat today. This knocks the Tigers offense down closer to what I am factoring for the Royals this evening. KC has a fresher lineup from having Thursday off – something that partially offsets Detroit’s 30%-better current form at the plate. That said, the big difference maker for the Royals is that they’ve produced nearly 20% better results at Kauffman Stadium this season than they have on the road. We’re talking about nearly a level playing field for these lineups tonight.
W. Peralta (R) vs. K. Bubic (L)
With that logic, it all comes down to pitching. The former Royals reliever Wlly Peralta has just six starts this season for the Tigers, with four of them coming on the road. So despite the small body of work to refer to – especially with the vast majority of his previous three seasons spent as a reliever – I feel there is enough data to support a reasonable handicap for tonight. He struggled in his first start of the year in LA about a month ago, giving up 5 runs to the Angels in 5 innings on the back of a pair of homers (Ohtani, Walsh). Wily’s road starts against Cleveland, Texas, and Minnesota are more indicative of what he should face tonight – producing something in the neighborhood of a mid-4.00s FIP outing with 5+ innings.
Peralta has pitched to contact effectively this season despite having a questionable .187 BABIP. His 57.4% ground ball rate helps offset his nature as a 10% walk rate guy. In fact, Wily gave up 6 walks in his last two starts but was able to work around them effectively. That makes his .187 BABIP especially troubling considering that the subpar defense behind him needs to be stout with a contact guy on the bump. While his 42.6% hard hit rate is concerning as well, I really like the velocity change of pace between his primary fastball and secondary slider/splitter combo. That splitter has really come along nicely as a tough get out of jail pitch. But his stuff must be live to fight off the tendency for the ball to fly in the hot, humid air tonight.
Opportunity Knocks
Just as Wily Peralta has his strengths and weaknesses, Kris Bubic offers a great opportunity for the Tigers offense to stay hot. For starters, Bubic is developing an ugly characteristic of walking batters as well. Fortunately, he was not punished too badly in his last start against a sputtering Baltimore offense – an outing that came on the heels of a 5-run affair by the Reds. My initial assessment of Bubic for tonight’s matchup was mixed. He could get bailed out against a strikeout-prone lineup like Detroit’s, but then again, his 12.0% walk rate and 44.1% hard hit rate play into their current proliferation. All that boils down to Kris being a 5.00-ish FIP pitcher who should hang in there for 5 innings tonight.
The bottom line for my handicapping purposes is the fact that he is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher – and the changeup has not been effective this season. This poses an interesting scenario for a Detroit lineup that has players who have been strong against ol’ #1, players who have been deadly against the changeup, and others who are decent with both. I am not a huge momentum bettor (i.e. playing winning or losing streaks) but current form is undoubtedly a component in my modeling. So call it a wash with offensive productivity plus a half-run of FIP edge for the Tigers against Bubic.
Bypassing the Bullpens
As opposed to yesterday – where I estimated the gap between the Tigers and Royals offense around 30% – I have serious concerns backing Detroit in the full game. Their bullpen was shaky in the middle innings against Texas and Hinch really surprised me by bringing in Gregory Soto for the third high-leverage outing in a row. I could certainly be wrong, but the Tigers relievers seem gassed. Their rest situation is significantly worse than KC’s and could level the playing field between the two units down the stretch. My numbers show about a 3% higher win percentage for Detroit in the first 5 innings versus the full game, so give me the better edge with a higher payout. As much as I wanted to find fault in backing Detroit yet again, here I go chasing the short dog.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings +108
Around the Horn
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